[미 대선 D-10] Opinion Poll Is Biden … Variable ‘Shy Trump’ In Battle Against Race

With the impending US presidential election, Democratic Party presidential candidate Joe Biden still dominates in public opinion polls, and the gap between state and national approval ratings has narrowed little by little, leading to to an unknown battle.

Some non-competitors, whose dominance President Donald Trump is expected to be, have also morphed into a fierce battlefield, forming favorable terrain for Biden, but it is not easy to predict considering not a few races within the margin of error. and the so-called ‘Timo Trump’. .

Most national polls are preceded by candidate Biden.

In a poll of 1,500 people between 18 and 20 (local time) conducted by the economist and the Yugov polling agency, Biden’s approval rating was 52%, beating President Trump’s 43% by 9%.

Biden (50%) also led Trump (41%) by 9 percentage points in a poll by the New York Times and the University of California from 15-18 (987 targets).

As a result of the compilation of the main polls carried out by the electoral analysis website Real Clear Politics (RCP), as of the 23rd, Biden 50.7% and Trump 42.8%, showing a difference of 7.9 points percentage. Of course, this is a figure that dropped 2.4 percentage points in 12 days from the gap of 10.3 percentage points on day 11.

However, since the US presidential election is a winner-take-all structure that includes all constituencies except two states, competition is decisive for contests with more constituencies than the nation.

In the last presidential election, Hillary Clinton won an additional 2.86 million votes nationwide, but President Trump, who ended six states in the race, won with 306 voters.

The electoral body of the 50 states of the United States number 538 people, and if the majority exceeds 270, they will take the presidency.

According to the PCR, as of the 23rd, ‘Rust Belt’ in Pennsylvania (20 voters), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), ‘Sunbelt’ Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Arizona (Biden is 4.0 percentage points ahead of Trump on the average approval rating of six competitors, including 11).

By state, Biden is winning in all six states with a gap of 1.5 to 7.8 percentage points. Although the gap in rivals’ approval ratings is narrowing than the nation’s, it’s quite encouraging for Biden, as it was the place where President Trump took office four years ago.

The conservative Fox News poll (17-20) also showed that Biden (52%) in Michigan outperformed Trump (40%) by 12 percentage points.

However, there are places that show a gap within the margin of error, and the gap is likely to be wider considering the average approval rating of competitive stocks, which rose to 5 percentage points on the 13th.

However, it is also carefully analyzed that regions where President Trump easily won the last presidential election, such as Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio, are fighting closer to the end, and that candidate Biden will win a big victory depending on the results. .

What stood out more than four years ago in this presidential election poll is that Biden is quite attractive to women, the elderly over 65, and suburban voters.

In a recent CNN poll, Biden edged out Trump by a whopping 21 percentage points in the elderly. Four years ago, Trump had 8 percentage points higher in the station’s joint exit poll.

Earlier this month, a Fox News poll showed that 58% of voters in the suburbs had Biden supporters and 38% of the vote in the suburbs, with a gap of 20 percentage points.

In a recent Fox News poll of four states – Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – Biden led by a double-digit difference for women living in the suburbs. Especially in Pennsylvania, there was a whopping 35 percentage point difference.

The explosive preliminary vote (vote-by-mail, vote-in-place) is also to Biden’s advantage.

As of the 22nd, 46.76 million people completed the pre-voting, beating the total record in 2016. Compared to the same point four years ago, it is eight times more. Of these, 50.9% of Democratic Party supporters and 26.6% of Republicans are, so Biden is also advantageous.

On the 23rd, it was estimated that the number of previous votes exceeded 50 million.

Because of this, Trump Camp is encouraging his supporters to vote on Presidential Election Day.

However, there are also voices that point out the ‘errors’ of public opinion polls.

It is argued that most polls have overlooked the hidden Timo Trump vote as it was four years ago.

For this reason, Robert Kehelley, head of the Trafalgar Group opinion poll, the only poll in Michigan, Gyeonghap, predicted Trump’s re-election during the last presidential election.

[연합뉴스]

Copyright ⓒ Yonhap News. Unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited