Trump’s ‘sun belt’ traps the vote, and 145 voters must be eliminated to reverse

Donald Trump (左), Joe Biden (右)

The US presidential elections have entered a countdown. Former Vice President Joe Biden, Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden, continues to dominate the US presidential election with the D-10 on the 24th. President Donald Trump is about to end up in one office.

According to the US public opinion polling companies Real Clear Politics and Five Thirds, as of the 23rd, candidate Biden has obtained 216 of 538 electoral voters. On the other hand, there were only 125 Republican candidates, President Trump. If any candidate achieves an electoral group of 270 or more, which is a majority, the election is confirmed. Although there are still 197 electoral voters in the swing state, the Washington government estimates the situation to be quite advantageous as Biden’s majority have only 54 voters left. In the case of President Trump, 145 out of 197 must be eliminated before re-election can be successful. On the national approval rating, candidate Biden registered 50.7%, leading President Trump (42.8%) by 7.9 percentage points.

There are also opinion polling agencies that predict the victory of President Trump. A typical example is the Trafalgar Group, which won Trump’s election four years ago. Trafalgar said: “Most of the polls have missed ‘The Trump Scam’, a Trump supporter who has not been disclosed.”

Most local experts analyze that the victory or defeat of the US presidential election on the 3rd of next month depends on the report cards of the six main competitors. There are 101 electoral votes in all six states: Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, less than a fifth of the 538 total. Yet even in the 2016 presidential election, all six states here won or they lost. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who was a Democratic candidate at the time until the polls just before the presidential election, surpassed Trump, but when she opened the polls, the results were unexpected. Trump swept six states and finally obtained 306 electoral votes and defeated Clinton (232).

As such, unlike other states, predictions are not easy, which is why the two candidates work hard until the last minute. In this presidential election, as in the last presidential election, the Democratic Party candidate is in the lead. The approval rating gap widened in the three northern states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which are called the ‘Rust Belt’, but the three southern sunbelt states, such as Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, they continue to show a crushing confrontation. For President Trump, the sunbelt is the last hope for change.

Graphic = Reporter Park Chun-hwan [email protected]

①Florida= Among the racial unions, there are more electoral teams with 29 members. It is said to be the most important party for this presidential election. On average poll approval ratings, Biden is ahead of President Trump (46.8%) at 48.9%. However, Hill’s survey also registered 48.0%. In the 2000 presidential election, Democratic candidate Al Gore lost the presidency by losing more than 500 votes to Republican candidate George W. Bush. At that time, after the controversy over the recount, candidate Gore accepted the result, and there was no major confusion.

② North Carolina= Candidate Biden (48.7%) is ahead of President Trump (46.9%) in approval ratings, but this is where the Republican Party has traditionally been a bit dominant. The Republican candidate has won three recent presidential elections. There are 15 voters. The approval ratings of Biden and President Trump have fluctuated here this year. In June, Biden took the lead, surrendered in August, and in September, Biden defeated President Trump. Since then, candidate Biden has been at the helm. However, since the gap is only 1.8 percentage points, it is difficult to predict what the outcome of the actual vote will be.

On the 22nd (local time) in San Antonio, Texas, a citizen wearing a mask is watching a television debate for the presidential elections. [AFP=연합뉴스]

③Arizona= The number of voters is relatively small with 11 people. The Republican candidates (McKane, Romney and Trump) have won all three presidential elections. However, at the current approval rating, candidate Biden (49.5%) is ahead of President Trump (46.3%). Since President Trump’s approval rating gap is small, he is one of the places where he must win for re-election. In Arizona and Florida, the deadline for voting by mail is the 3rd of the following month, the day of the vote, so final results can be obtained at dawn the next day. As such, it is also a place that can be used as a weather vane to measure the results of this presidential election.

④ Pennsylvania= The size of the electorate is 20 and it is one of the key competitors. Biden’s approval rating (49.5%) is ahead of Trump (44.6%). In the last presidential election, President Trump scored another victory by just 0.7 percentage points (44,000 votes). Again, it is counted as a place President Trump should never miss. In the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, former President Barack Obama won. It is an area with a strong will to retake as the Democratic Party as former President Obama resolved to support candidate Biden on the 21st.

⑤ Wisconsin= The number of voters is 10, the smallest among the six contests. In the last presidential election, President Trump defeated Clinton by 0.7 percentage points. In the previous two presidential elections, Obama won with 6.9 percentage points and 13.9 percentage points. Biden’s current approval rating is 49.3% and President Trump’s 44.7%, with a gap slightly higher than Biden’s. It is one of the three Rust Belts, but President Trump is fighting in this presidential election.

⑥ Michigan= Of the six competitors, the gap in approval ratings between the two candidates is currently the largest. Biden has 50.4% and President Trump 42.6%. Democratic Party member Gretchen Whitmer, who was in conflict with President Trump over Corona 19’s response, is the governor. Governor Whitmer put in place a strong containment policy to prevent the spread of Corona 19, and President Trump criticized and hit hard. On the 17th, President Trump, who visited Michigan for a campaign, made an agitated comment, saying, “Keep her (the governor) locked up.” In this presidential election, voters’ votes are expected to change with respect to the response to Corona 19.

Reporter Choi Ik-jae [email protected]