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US missile experts reported on the 13th that the analysis of the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that North Korea unveiled at a ceremony marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Labor Party on the 10th is mixed, the Voice of the United States (VOA) on the 13th.
There is a possibility that it is a multi-warhead missile that can be equipped with a more powerful engine and can carry multiple warheads, but there is also a careful analysis that there is a long way to go to secure multi-warhead technology at one level. that compensates for the shortcomings of the existing Hwaseong-15 type missile. be be.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Non-Proliferation Center at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies, evaluated North Korea’s new ICBM as a “very large missile” and analyzed that “there would have been a cluster-type engine linking multiple engines Hwaseong-15 “.
General Lewis said: “If you consider a fuel supply pump and two combustion chambers mounted on a Hwaseong-15 missile as an engine, the Hwaseong-12 and Hwaseong-14 are equipped with a ‘half piece’ engine. The ICBM introduced this time is estimated to be equipped with an engine that combines two to three Hwaseong-15 engines ”. He added: “It means that the first stage rocket is two or three times more powerful than the Hwaseong-15 type.” To make the missile larger, it is necessary to develop a larger engine or group several engines together as a group, but for North Korea, which mimics the old Soviet-made engine, the group method is more reasonable than continuing to increase. the size of the motor. It depends on how big it really is, but this type of missile should be considered capable of carrying multiple warheads. “If the four ICBMs launched by North Korea have three warheads each, they will attack with 12 warheads in total. do. It can be used to subdue America’s missile defense systems deployed in Alaska. “
Specifically, it was estimated that “if the diameter of the missile is 2.5 m, 3 reentrants of Hwaseong-15 type missiles can be loaded, and if the diameter is set to a maximum of 3 m, up to 5 reentrants can be loaded” .
In particular, he repeatedly raised the possibility that the new ICBM would seriously threaten the United States’ missile defense network in the future, saying, “Increasing the number of warheads in this way is much less expensive than expanding the defense system. antimissile of the United States “.
Furthermore, “in the event of a crisis, it is more advantageous for the United States to destroy the missile before launch than to block it with a missile defense system, and for Kim Jong-un, it is more dangerous to delay launching a small number of missiles. intercontinental ballistics that carry all the warheads at once, “he said. Therefore, the crisis situation could worsen ”.
General Lewis put more weight on the possibility that North Korea’s ICBM has evolved into a type of multiple warheads. “In that case, it will be a means of effectively overwhelming America’s missile defense system, and it will pose a real problem for the United States.” It fits into the new concept of strategic weapon that was announced ”.
Ian Williams, deputy director of the missile defense project at the Institute for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), also noted the size of the new ICBM and assessed it as “the world’s largest liquid-fueled mobile missile.” However, he said, “We have avoided the worst case scenario in which North Korea presents solid-fuel ICBMs.”
“The new ICBM will be an extension of the Hwaseong-12, 14 and 15 missiles and will be able to carry larger and heavier warheads,” Williams said. “It may be an attempt to secure a rocket carrying large and heavy nuclear weapons from North Korea.” Dear.
However, Vice Principal Williams was quite cautious with North Korea’s multi-warhead technology. He said: “There are talks about the independent nuclear target reentry warhead (MIRV), but it is too far along to think that North Korea has already secured it.”
He said: “In multi-warhead technology, there is a rather crude way in which multiple launched nuclear warheads all fly in the same orbit and land on the same target, and an advanced way in which a PBV called rear-wheel drive hits another target. at the same time. North Korea may develop it in the near future, but the latter is a technology that the United States and Russia possess, and North Korea still has a long way to go. “
“It is clear that the new ICBM is a new strategic weapon,” Williams said. “It’s not that impressive,” he said. “It is clear that many missile experts expected more than a size larger than the Hwaseong-15.”
He said: “The Hwaseong-15 type appeared to be a working ICBM, and it already puts the entire United States in range, which might ask why another liquid-fueled missile was needed.” There are also observations that the new ICBM was equipped with a light warhead, and if the new ICBM is a missile with a level of overcoming such limitations, it can be considered as’ a Hwaseong-15 type that can really be operate and operate ‘.
Deputy Director Williams said, “The continuing evolution of North Korea’s ICBM technology is making the United States increasingly dangerous.” “It is an important factor to do.”
Meanwhile, Vice Principal Williams said more attention should be paid to the KN-25, that is, the 600mm class oversized firearm, which was unveiled in this row.
He said: “We are adapting to various highway environments using different launch devices, such as wheeled vehicles and Caterpillar vehicles, and we are evolving to facilitate invasion,” he said. “This ability makes it possible to precisely hit targets deep in Korea. I would use it when attacking.
Furthermore, he said, “it is a notable feature in this row of weapons that North Korea introduced a new radar system and a surface-to-air missile equipped with a Russian-made missile (TOR), considering Korea’s much inferior radar capabilities. from North”.
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