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‘Sell in May’ is a type of maximum used in the stock market. As these words become famous, they are also marketed and sold as frames or images. Amazon photos
Will “Sell in May (Investors Sell Shares in May)” come after “V-Bounce”?
KOSPI fell 11.69% in March and increased 10.99% in April. The index, which had plummeted in the 1400s, has now returned to the 1900 level. V-shaped rebound.
The problem is May. The stock market has the saying: “Sell in May and go.” This is due to the idea that the growth rate of the stock market from November to April is higher than the growth rate of May to October. In May, the season when the market is not improving will skyrocket.
Stocks are also in season? The basis for ‘selling in May’ is
It is controversial whether the ‘cell in May’ should be played every year or whether the commotion of ‘cell in May’ is approaching. CNBC, screenshot of the Yahoo Finance website
Some numbers support this idea. Looking at the global stock index since 2010, the performance of the stock market in May averaged -2.6%. According to an analysis published by Graystone Consulting of Morgan Stanley, the Standard & Poor’s (S & P) 500 index in the United States had a higher average performance (5.1%) from November to April for 92 years than an average performance (2.1% ) From May to October. In Korea, after 2010, the stock price has decreased every eight years, except 2014 and 2017. The average return is -1.7%.
However, averaging simplifies specificity. Coincidentally, it was all May when the European financial crisis and the uncertainty of the trade dispute arose, so the average drop in share prices in May may have been toxic.
However, in general, if the market growth rate through April is high due to the “expectation at the beginning of the year”, the decrease in May can be explained for the same reason. In a report last month 29, Lee Jin-woo, a researcher at Meritz Securities, said: “May is a time to readjust the eye level of the market as it is the end of the first quarter corporate earnings announcement.” . This is because the downward adjustment pattern repeats. ”
‘Cellular in May’ this year? National experts “fine”
National experts believe that ‘Cell in May’ will not be repeated this May, but this is not because they can optimize the market situation. Blinds stock
How about this year? The spread of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) is causing unprecedented events even in the stock market. “It is different from the previous May,” said the researcher. “The expectations of the economic indicators are already low, so the May shock in the market is unlikely to occur.”
IBK Investment & Securities researcher Lee Jeong-bin said: “Considering that KOSPI has increased considerably compared to fundamentals, ‘Cell in May’ is highly likely to occur in May, but it will not be as shocking as it was it owes its “personal buffering role.” “Since the beginning of the year, foreigners have sold 18 trillion won, and people have bought 11 trillion won,” he said.
Conversely, some people think they can buy more in May. The Samsung Securities global investment strategy team said: “We are not optimistic about the trend in May, but we recommend responding with the” Alpha in May “rather than” Sell in May. “However, we need a compression strategy. and selection for stocks that do not maintain strong growth or undermine earnings prospects, stocks with strong cash flow, stocks with stable dividends despite earnings and stocks related to intact lifestyle. ” .
Experts expect KOSPI index for May
Korea Investment & Securities 1780 ~ 2000
“The stock market in May is likely to enter a period of inactivity. There is no cure or vaccine, and experts warn of the second spread, so the normalization rate of economic activity should be only 80-90%. It’s hard to completely eliminate the preference for safe assets like cash. ”
KB Securities 1780 ~ 2030
“The easy-to-ease block is good for fundamentals, but uncertainty for sentiment. Infection proliferation can occur locally. However, since these issues are likely to be resolved in the summer, it will return to an upward trend after a short-term adjustment. ”
Korea Asset Values 1700 ~ 2000
“Important countries This year, inverse GDP growth is inevitable and its breadth is expected to be unprecedented. Another problem is that it is difficult to estimate the performance of the company in the first half. Even if the government and the central bank expand financial and financial support, they will not preserve the corporate deficit. ”
Kyobo Securities 1750 ~ 1950
“The expectation that foreigners and institutions will become net purchases can also be considered positive. However, if KOSPI exceeds 2000 points, purchasing power is limited and some non-reducing items may be released. ”
Samsung Securities 1750 ~ 2000
“Given the slowdown in world trade caused by Corona 19, a significant drop in exports will be inevitable for at least the second quarter and the level of earnings will decrease.”
Reporter Moon Hyun-kyung [email protected]
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