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As the impact on the labor market caused by the spread of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) continued, the number of employees fell by more than 270,000 in August and the population took a break. Citizens are looking for job openings at Employment Welfare Plus Seton in Seoul. / Photo = Hankyung DB
Among the inactive population, the “resting” population reached a record in the middle of the “peak season” for two consecutive years. It means that outdoor work has disappeared so much. Concerns are growing about “Isn’t the decline in middle-aged and low-income employment seriously”?
Rest The population is considered a potential unemployed population as an inactive population that can work but rests for no apparent reason. Normally idle population increases dramatically in January, when the construction industry enters the lower limit, and then declines when work increases in the spring and summer. In general, the winter season is around 300,000-500,000 more people rest than other seasons. However, the population that has been resting for the past three years continues to increase regardless of the season.
In particular, last year, for the first time in August, the population surpassed January, and this year August surpassed the January figure and reached an all-time high. It means that even in summer, there is no more work than in winter. It is interpreted to mean that the number of contract jobs and journals of middle-aged men who have concentrated on construction in the last two years has disappeared. Furthermore, it appears that the youth workforce has declined significantly as accommodations and restaurants were recently affected by a new coronavirus infection (Corona 19).
In fact, when looking at the recently rested population, men rather than women and by age group, middle-aged people aged 50 and over and young people in their 20s have a sharp increase in job security. As Corona 19 is expected to drag on, the cold labor market is expected to intensify this winter.
‘Relax’ that he lost in spring and climbed in winter
Ride at high altitude regardless of season from 2018
Monthly average before and 2003-2017 ‘off’. The ‘resting’ population, which generally increases in winter and falls in spring, has been increasing since 2018 regardless of the season. / Graph = Reporter Shin Hyun-bo, Hankyung.com
According to the ‘August employment trend’ of the 12th, the population that took a break last month was 2,462,000, a record. This is an increase of 290,000 people (13.3%) compared to the same month last year.
From 2003 to 2017, when the statistics were made, the population stayed below 2 million except for a month in January 2012. This statistic increased from December to February and the lowest from April to June was a common pattern. As a result of analyzing the monthly average of the population that took a break until 2017, the average winter season was 2-400,000 more than the rest of the season.
However, this pattern began to break in 2018. After taking 28,000 people in January 2018, the population has taken a breather, ignoring seasonality.
‘Relaxed’ population by gender and age group. Light blue is masculine, pink is feminine. / Graph = Reporter Shin Hyun-bo, Hankyung.com
By sex, there were 1.95 million men who took a break in August, 228,000 compared to the same period last year, and 512,000 women, an increase of 62,000 people.
It is increasing steeply in all age groups except adolescents. In particular, twentysomethings recorded the largest increase, 24.8% more than in the same period last year.
‘Relax’ 文 Administration 42% for 3 years ↑
0.2% in the Park Geun-hye administration ↓
The resting population has increased over the past two to three years regardless of seasonal factors. For the Moon Jae-in government, this is interpreted as a decrease in the number of daily construction workers due to a series of policies such as increasing the minimum wage, a contraction of the construction economy and the regularization of the non-regular workers. As of August, the number of people who took a break during the last three years increased by 42.1%, from 1,732,000 to 2,462,000. Compared to the previous government, this pattern is clear. From 2013 to 2015, the first three years of Park Geun-hye’s administration, the number decreased by 0.2% from 1,515,000 to 1,512,000 in the same month.
Park Geun-hye administration and Moon Jae-in administration resting population comparison. The top is by gender and the bottom is by age group. The growth rate of the Park Geun-hye government on the left and the Moon Jae-in government on the right. / Graph = Reporter Shin Hyun-bo, Hankyung.com
By age group, all age groups in the Moon Jae-in administration increased, while in the Park Geun-hye administration, all but those aged 60 and over fell, showing a contrast. During the three years of Moon Jae-in’s administration, 20-year-olds increased by 10.7%, 20-year-olds 64.3%, 30-year-olds 51.8%, 40-year-olds 62.9%, 50 25% and those 60 and over 36.2%, with the largest increase in the 20. At the time of the Park Geun-hye administration, only those over 60 years increased 32.4%, while adolescents 67.9%, 20 years 23%, 30 years 9.4%, 40 years 14.2%, 50 years 1.4%. The number of people over 60 years of age has increased in the two governments, 117% in the last seven years until August.
This winter’s ‘rest’ population is inevitable …
“The vulnerable class is seriously affected”
Jeokbangchon in central Seoul. According to the evolution of employment in August, the number of permanent workers increased and the number of day laborers and temporary workers decreased. As the COVID-19 outbreak drags on, employment for the vulnerable deteriorates. / Photo = News 1
In winter, which is the winter season for full employment, the population is expected to worsen. This is because, due to the prolonged outbreak of COVID-19, an additional blow to the low-income class, whose employment is unstable, is inevitable.
In this employment index, the number of permanent workers increased by 2% compared to the same month last year, but the number of temporary and daily workers decreased by 6.5% and 5.5%, respectively. It is estimated that the number of self-employed with wage earners increased by 1.6% during the same period and the number of self-employed without wage earners decreased by 11.2%. Even if you look at the number of employees per week, the number of employees who are employed for more than 36 hours, equivalent to regular workers, increased by 18.8% and those who were employed for less than 36 hours, equivalent to daily workers or temporary, decreased by 35.8%.
Number of employees by major industry. The number of employees has generally decreased, especially in the manufacturing industry, which includes large numbers of day and temporary workers, and the accommodation and restaurant industries. / Graph = Reporter Shin Hyun-bo, Hankyung.com
As a result of looking at the number of employees by industry, the number of employees in the manufacturing industry reached the lowest level since August 2013, and the accommodation and restaurant business was found to be the worst from 2014 to August. The construction industry fell by 0.3% compared to the same period last year, and agriculture, forestry and fishing, where the number of employed people usually increase in summer, fell by 3% compared to the previous year, per second consecutive month.
The reason for the recent decline in the number of people employed by age group is analyzed because the number of middle-aged people, who are the majority of workers in manufacturing, construction and agricultural, forestry and fishing industries, has decreased. and young people, who represent the majority of the accommodation and food industries. Among them, construction and agriculture, forestry and fishing, which fluctuate according to the season, represent around 14% of the total number of employed persons, which is expected to intensify the insecurity of the labor market.
“If the recession continues due to prolonged Corona 19, the economic damage to the vulnerable is very likely to become even more severe,” said Sung Tae-yoon, a professor at Yonsei University, predicting that the prospects for the second half of the job market are darker.
Shin Hyun-bo, Reporter for Hankyung.com [email protected]
