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‘Post Abbe’ perspective
Japanese Secretary of State Yoshihide Suga announced at a press conference on the 2nd that he would run for president of the Liberal Democratic Party to elect a new prime minister. [로이터=연합뉴스]
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his intention to resign on the 28th of last month, and Abe’s long-term reign of seven years and eight months is about to end. He was the prime minister who had many bad ties with Korea. As such, the focus is on who will become the successor prime minister and what kind of disposition he will have. For now, Suga Yoshihide will almost certainly be elected chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party in the election of the next prime minister with the support of many factions within the LDP. Secretary of State Suga is scheduled to compete on the 14th with former CEO Fumio Kishida and former Chief Secretary Shigeru Ishiba, who voted together for the program.
Director Takeshi Nakajima
Factionless Suga cares about public approval ratings
‘Dryhan’ diplomatic relations with Korea expected
Kishida is a politician like a ‘black box’
Abe retires from conservative Japanese politics
Conflict with South Korea during the Chinese flight
There is only a lot of negative legacy left
At this point, how do Japanese political experts forecast the ‘Post Abe’ era? To understand the implications, I met Takeshi Nakajima (45, photo), a professor at the Tokyo Institute of Technology, who is one of Japan’s most striking scholars in recent years, to learn about the political trends of the upcoming prime ministerial candidates. and their perspectives for political affairs. He said, “Unlike Abe, Suga is a person whose ideology is light and can carry out different policies as much as possible.”
Professor Takeshi Nakajima
- Did you expect Prime Minister Abe’s resignation?
- “I was hoping that if the lame duck progressed rapidly due to health problems, it would soon retire. I think it’s good for Abe not to nominate a replacement or have a temp agency. “
- If you evaluate Abe’s second regimen, 7 years and 8 months.
- “He left a lot of negative legacy. In 2013, the Specific Secrets Protection Act was passed, providing grounds for arrest without revealing the motive. Naturally, I became reluctant to give critical opinions to the government. The tendency for officials to do handtaku on their own has also increased. The media was reluctant to question the government harshly and NHK became a government public relations agency. In Moritomo Kake Gakuen’s question, which is a suspicion of the assistant’s preferential treatment, it was revealed that the bureaucrats took care of fabricating the data. The Abe Cabinet laid the groundwork for the government to dominate the citizens at low cost. Decades later, historians will assess that there was a greater change than expected during the Abe regime. “
- Some point out that Abe withdrew from conservatism in Japan.
- “The fundamentals of conservatism are to recognize the imperfections of human beings, including myself, and to listen to the opinions of other people. The basics of conservative politics is to first listen to the opinions of the other party and find points of contact within them. Prime Minister Ohira Masayoshi is considered a very good conservative politician, who said: “The policy should be 60 points.” It means that trying to get 100 points just because we are right is like communism. In this sense, Abe could not succeed the existing conservative politics at all. The opinion of the opposition party was ignored and various laws were applied. Rather, he was close to Chinese President Xi Jinping. “
- How do you evaluate Abe’s diplomacy?
- “The situation in East Asia is changing dramatically and the response was delayed because we only emphasized the alliance between the United States and Japan. During the Abe regime, Japan’s position in East Asia also declined considerably. The North Korean issue was excluded from being on stage. In particular, it was not the time to fight Korea. Japan should have shown leadership in containing China’s leak in solidarity with Southeast Asia and India, as well as Korea. Relations with China and Russia did not improve either, and they were only attracted to the United States. “
- What kind of prime minister will Suga become?
- “Suga is quite different from Abe. Suga honestly confessed, ‘When I met Abe, I felt great because he had a view of the country that he didn’t have. Suga does not have a strong ideology or vision of the state. He is similar to Abe in terms of authoritarianism, but he is not a right wing to the bone, so there is the possibility of following a different policy. Also, I’m interested in power games, how to take power and reign as a strong leader. As such, it is quite responsive to the wishes of the public. He is also strong in the policy of cutting fares that the public likes, such as reducing highway tolls and NHK license fees. The problem of relocating the US military base in Okinawa is also a strong protest from the residents, which is why they said they would build Disneyland. In that sense, he is a populist ”.
- How will the relationship between Korea and Japan change under the Suga regime?
- “In light of a style that is not limited by ideology, it can be crazy haggling. As there is not much obstinacy on the right in relation to the perception of history, diplomacy is expected to be based entirely on interests ”.
- How about visiting Yasukuni?
- “Basically, Suga is not going to care. There is no strong insistence on historical perception. If there is a desire to improve relations with Korea and China, the subject of history will not be touched. However, if you want the right base of support, you can go. “
- Kishida was influential as ‘Post Abe’, but why didn’t Abe name him as a successor?
- “Kishida is a ‘black box’ politician who is not sure what he wants to do. He is also weak in power games. It was the party that signed the comfort women agreement between Korea and Japan in 2015 and showed no leadership when the Moon Jae-in administration faced a crisis of annihilation. At first, Abe thought of Kishida as his successor, whom he could control even after retirement, but in the end it seems that he has given up. “
- Ishiba is evaluated as if he is exactly opposite Abe.
- “Ishiba is cautious about the prime minister’s visit to Yasukuni in terms of history and is determined to distort the history of politicians. In economic policy, the position has recently shifted towards strengthening the social safety net. Besides the question of value, the distribution of wealth was completely opposed to Abe. Although it was the Liberal Democratic Party, it was similar to the position of the opposition party. That is why it was difficult to make a comrade in Abe’s PLD ”.
- It is noted that Suga does not belong to a faction, so the base within the group is unstable.
- “So if I become prime minister, I will pay more attention to the popularity of the people. Prime Minister Koizumi, who was not a faction, did the same. So if the approval rating drops, the Suga regime will lose its legitimacy. “
- Will Abe still be influential after retirement?
- “Abe’s influence is expected to weaken quickly, as the Abe regime was not led by Abe alone, but was supported by surrounding forces like Suga. However, in the field of diplomacy, you will want to remain influential. However, it is very likely that the next prime minister will have someone who can verify Abe’s influence on the trauma. “
- It became a hot topic to analyze that ‘40% of the PLD House of Representatives were Abe Children’.
- “When Abe was first elected to the National Assembly in 1993, the spectrum of the PLD was diverse. However, during Abe’s term as governor, there were three House elections. Right now, young elected legislators are characterized by a strong right-wing ideology and a theory of self-responsibility. They are literally Abe Children and Abe Kids. The problem is that they will be candidates for minister and prime minister in 5 to 10 years. Even if Abe retires, Abe’s color will remain for a long time. “
- Who will the next prime minister pay attention to after a year?
- “Ishiba is likely to get kicked even if it’s tough this time. It is also noteworthy that Seiko Noda, who served as Secretary of State, and Yuko Obuchi, the daughter of former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, are also notable. Now is the time for a prime minister in Japan. “
Japan’s next prime minister Suga rises in approval rating to No. 1
It is analyzed that the increase in Suga’s approval rating was due to the political dynamics within the Liberal Democratic Party. According to local media, Prime Minister Abe initially lobbied President Jeongjo Kishida as the next prime minister, but as his popularity rarely rises, he is said to have worried that his political rival, former Secretary-General Ishiba, would take office.
Former Secretary Ishiba has challenged the PLD governor’s election three times, two of which have been defeated by Prime Minister Abe. In the party, he was considered the only static enemy to have faced Prime Minister Abe. As such, it is analyzed that Prime Minister Abe changed his course to support Minister Suga, his calm, in order to prevent the situation in which he proposed a weak candidate and then handed over power to former Secretary-General Ishiba.
However, it is difficult to analyze that even if Suga is elected prime minister, he will only be able to act as a stepping stone to the next administration a year later instead of wielding real power. This is because it is from a nonpartisan who does not have an official faction. Consequently, second place in the gubernatorial election is also receiving attention. After Prime Minister Suga completes the remaining year of Prime Minister Abe’s term, former Secretary-General Ishiba and other potential runners are expected to become the next Prime Minister.
Reporter Choi Ik-jae [email protected]
Tokyo = correspondent Yoon Seol-young [email protected]
Professor Takeshi Nakajima It is widely known as a study that analyzes the books and interviews of Japanese politicians to discover their insides. His “Japan Morning” (Power of Thought) is also widely quoted in recent analysis of the post-Abe government in the Korean media.
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