Enter 2021-01-15 11:31 | Revision 2021-01-15 11:38
▲ Economic contraction. Yonhap News
The government was concerned that uncertainty in the real economy would persist for the seventh consecutive month. In the case of last month, employment indicators, close to the catastrophe, deteriorated and consumption indicators, such as a drop in the amount of credit card approval, also did. This can be interpreted in the same context as the ruling of the Korea Development Institute (KDI), which previously diagnosed that “the possibility of a contraction of our economy has increased.”
The Ministry of Strategy and Finance said in the ‘Recent economic trends’ (January edition of the Green Book) published on the 15th. It was diagnosed as a situation in which economic uncertainty persists ”. In June of last year, “the downside risk to the real economy has somewhat mitigated,” and there was room for an economic rebound. I judged that he was turning.
The Ministry of Science and Technology added: “The improvement in physical indicators has weakened somewhat due to the continued spread of Corona 19 in major countries and the strengthening of containment measures.”
Looking at the recently announced employment indicators, the government’s economic judgment was predicted. According to the employment trend for December last year published by the National Statistical Office on the 13th, the number of people employed last month decreased by 628,000 compared to the previous year. It was 2.3 times greater than the decrease in November (273,000 people). The employment rate for people aged 15 to 64, which is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) benchmark, was 65.9%, 0.9% less than the previous year . It is the lowest level since 2015 (65.9%).
Exports, which make up a large part of the Korean economy, remain volatile. Last month, exports increased 12.6% from the previous year due to the improvement in exports related to information technology (IT) and the increase in working days. However, the export status from 1 to 10 this month, as revealed by the Korean Customs Service, was $ 11.2 billion, 15.4% ($ 20.4 billion) less than in the same period last year. However, the average daily value of exports, taking into account the number of working days, has increased for two consecutive months, which is encouraging.
▲ Container for export News Yonhap News
Domestic demand is worse off. Last month, the number of domestic credit card approvals was 3.3% lower than a year ago. Since April last year (-5.7%), it has turned into a decline in eight months. Department store sales also fell 14.1%. The decrease was greater than in November (-3.9%). Online sales, which showed a strong increase due to the spread of offline consumption, also increased only 19.2% last month. Before May-November, the rate of increase exceeded 20%.
Last month, domestic passenger car sales fell 8.4% and Yuke (Chinese tourists) fell 98.4%, respectively. On the other hand, the sale price of housing throughout the country rose 0.90% and 0.97%, respectively, compared to the previous month, which generated disturbances in the market.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CSI) also fell to 89.8 last month. In previous October and November, it rose to 91.6 and 97.9, respectively, approaching the baseline of 100.
As for the financial market, where some bubbly arguments are raised, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said: “The price of shares has risen dramatically and the exchange rate has fallen due to the start of vaccination with vaccines in the main countries and Additional stimulus measures in the US. Rose to the center of the water. “
Previously, KDI, a national research institute, also diagnosed that the possibility of a recent contraction in the Korean economy has increased. KDI noted in the ‘January Economic Trends’ released on the 10th, “Since mid-November, the service industry has been intensifying due to the national reproliferation of Corona 19 and the strengthening of social distancing.” KDI said: “As the Corona 19 spread deepens in December, credit card sales have declined dramatically and the consumer confidence index has declined. Consumption is believed to have contracted enormously.” As quarantine measures, such as trade restrictions, are strengthened, there is the possibility that slow consumption will intensify, mainly in the service industry ”. KDI diagnosed that the manufacturing industry continues the trend of improvement, but was concerned that the gap between the industries was widening.
▲ Recent economic trends ⓒ Yonhap News
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