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Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol (left), Democratic Party Representative Lee Nak-yeon (center), and Gyeonggi-do Governor Lee Jae-myeong (right). Yonhap News News1 Newsis
The direction of the next power is always of interest. Furthermore, as the term of the incumbent president approaches the final stage, there is no need to say more. That is why they are popular polls for candidates for the presidential elections.
To celebrate the new year, opinion poll companies are publishing the results of voter approval ratings one after another. In most polls, the “Third Conference” system is clear, but the leaders are different depending on the polling companies. In some investigations, Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong comes to the fore, while in other investigations, Attorney General Yoon Seok-yul is in first place by a margin.
YTN-Realmeter surveyed 1,000 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide (± 3.1% points for a 95% sample error), based on the results of a 1-2 day survey, the rate of President Yoon’s approval was 30.4%, for the first time 30%. Broke the line. It was 10.1 percentage points ahead of Governor Lee (20.3%), the second place, and a double score difference of the leader of the Democratic Party (15.0%) along with Nak-yeon Lee, the third place.
The results of the KBS-Korea Research survey from December 27 to 29 conducted with a delay of about 5 days (for 1,000 men and women 18 years and older, ± 3.1% points at the 95 confidence level % of sampling error) were different. Governor Lee was 21.7% and CEO Lee was 16.9%, and President Yoon’s approval rating was 13.8%, 7.9 percentage points behind Lee. In the SBS-Ipsos poll (Dec 28-30), Governor Lee took the lead with 23.6% from Governor Lee, 18.5% from President Yoon, and 16.7% from CEO Lee.
As such, in a total of 10 presidential candidate preference polls conducted from December 27 to January 2, Governor Lee ranked first in seven polls and President Yoon ranked first in three polls.
Polls for the presidential elections were mixed according to the survey method. Graphic = Reporter Jaemin Shin [email protected]
Considering that the results of the polls carried out at the same time vary widely, the experts analyze that “the difference in the method of the public opinion polls had a decisive effect”. In fact, all seven surveys conducted by Lee Governor were interviewed by telephone, and all three surveys, led by Mr. Yun, were automatic response (ARS). In particular, the YTN-realmeter survey, where Yun’s approval rating exceeded 30%, was 100% ARS (20% wired, 80% wireless), and the KBS-Korea Research survey, where Yun ranked third, it was 100% wireless telephone interview. . Unlike a telephone interview, in which the investigator calls randomly and interviews respondents directly, ARS is an automatic response, so there is no need to go through the investigator.
It is analyzed that Yoon’s strength in the ARS poll was due to the active response from followers of ‘why Yoon Seok-yeol’ who rarely reveals his conservative tendencies in front of others. Professor Han Gyu-seop from the Department of Media and Information Studies at Seoul National University said: “In the ARS survey that does not go through a researcher, it appears that many respondents with anti-Moon Jae-in tendencies have chosen to support President Yoon. ” Respondents may have been actively involved in the research. ”
Some analyzes say that even in the same ARS survey, there is a difference depending on whether it is a landline (home phone) or wireless (mobile phone). In the Daily-R & Search survey from December 27 to 29 using the 100% wireless ARS method (1038 people over 18 years of age, ± 3.0% points at the 95% confidence level of the sample error), President Yoon recorded 23.5%, Governor Lee (21.2%). %) and Lee (19.3%), but the gap was within the margin of error by 2.3 percentage points. The gap (10.1% points) was smaller than that of the YTN-realmeter survey, which reflected 20% of ARS for cable. An official at a public opinion polling firm who requested anonymity said: “The cable poll, which has a high response rate for the elderly, tends to be advantageous for conservative candidates.”
Experts point out that polls should not be confused with the reflection of the electoral vote. Professor Lee Jun-woong from the Department of Media and Information Studies at Seoul National University emphasized: “It is difficult to assess whether you show accurate public sentiment because differences in the political orientation of respondents, questionnaire questions and the sample of respondents is large according to the polling company “.
Reporters Sohn Kook-hee and Kim Jun-young [email protected]
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