Even today, less than 1000 people … Pay attention to the effect of completely banning groups of 5 or more people

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The ‘third pandemic’ of a new coronavirus infection in Korea (Corona 19) is in full swing, and new confirmed cases are showing a slight slowdown over the New Year holidays.

It still fluctuates with around 1,000 people, but there is no rapid spread. According to statistics, the top and bottom lines of new confirmed cases have dropped by one notch compared to last month’s rapidly rising period.

However, the recent decrease is due to the effect of the decrease in the number of tests during the holidays, and as large and small group infections continue in several places, the size of the infection can increase again at any time.

The government first raised the number of matches with the current ‘social distancing’ measures (2.5 steps for metropolitan areas, 2 steps for non-metropolitan areas) and a two-week extension card for special quarantine measures. The ban on private gatherings of 5 or more people will also be extended nationally from the 4th.

Based on the judgment that the growth trend is somewhat suppressed and quarantine and medical capabilities are also maintained to some extent, it is a calculation that we will try to break the expansion trend without a three-stage upgrade causing a major hit to the economy. of common people.

The government’s goal is to reduce the number of patients by the 17th and stabilize the situation until February, when vaccination begins.

However, the goal is not expected to be easy to achieve as the virus is active in the dead of winter and a mutant virus originating from the UK has been introduced, which is 1.7 times more potent. It is also a burden that there is great national fatigue from distancing.

◇ Fewer than 1,000 people today … Some signs are positive, such as less movement in the metropolitan area and close to infectious reproduction index 1.

According to the Central Defense Countermeasures Headquarters (Bangdaebon) on the 3rd, the number of new confirmed cases at 0 o’clock the previous day fell to 800 in five days after the 28th (807) last month.

The number of new confirmed cases on this day is expected to be less than 1,000.

Quarantine authorities and local governments, such as the Seoul Metropolitan Government, counted 616 confirmed cases that were tentatively counted from 0:00 to 9:00 pm the previous day. If it comes out less, it could be around 700.

However, this is largely due to the significant decrease in the number of inspections for the New Year holidays compared to weekdays. It may be more of a temporary phenomenon than a reversal signal.

However, it should be noted that positive signals are also emerging among key indicators.

First of all, the number of new confirmed patients during the last week (2020.12.27 ~ 2021.1.2) is 970 → 807 → 1.45 → 1.50 → 967 → 1.29 → 824 per day. The number of people registered and fell below 1,000.

Among them, the number of confirmed local outbreaks, which is a key indicator of the adjustment of the distancing stage, was counted as an average of 931 per day. Compared to the one that topped 1,000 last month, the decline is clear.

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The amount of movement of people is also decreasing.

In particular, the amount of mobile phone traffic on weekends in the metropolitan area decreased for three weeks in a row, including 24.49 million from 12 to 13 last month, 24.44 million from 19 to 20 and 23.6 million from 26 to 27, showing the lowest level since the Corona 19 epidemic. This is less than the lowest level (25.45 million cases) at the time of the “first pandemic” in Daegu and Gyeongbuk.

Early detection of infected people also had results. As a result of the operation of 186 temporary testing centers across the country that allow anonymous testing, a total of 2.30 patients were found from the 14th of last month to the day before.

The infection reproduction index, which shows how many infected people in the vicinity of a patient, also fell from 1.4 at the beginning of last month to the current level of 1.1. This means that the patient’s growth trend is slowing down and, if it falls below 1, it enters an inhibition phase.

Based on these indicators, the government judges that the effects of distance and special quarantine measures are gradually appearing.

◇ Extending the nationwide ban on gatherings of more than 5 people starting tomorrow … The ‘three variables’ are winter, national fatigue and the mutant virus.

The government plans to focus its capacity on reducing the size of new confirmed cases over the next two weeks.

The government decided to extend by two weeks the current distancing measure, which was scheduled to end this day, and extend the ban on private gatherings of 5 or more people nationwide, which had been applied only to the metropolitan area.

The special quarantine measures for the end of the year and the New Year holidays were also extended until the 17th.

The government nailed every unit of local government so that the measures could not relax on their own. The purpose is to increase the quarantine effect while maintaining unity and consistency.

Kwon Deok-cheol, the first deputy chief of the Security and Disaster Countermeasures Headquarters (Central Script), emphasized in the briefing the day before, “The next two weeks are the time when we can solidify the quarantine system and reduce the number of patients “. If there is, we can reliably control the situation until the time vaccines and treatments are used. “

◇ Experts “Unavoidable choice”, “It is necessary to strengthen the restriction of the number of people in the restaurant”

Infectious disease experts valued the measures to extend the distance as “an unavoidable option”, but noted that there are some aspects that are insufficient to achieve results.

Eom Jung-sik, professor of infectious medicine at Gachon University Gil Hospital, said: “It is an unavoidable option in the state that the three-step update was not performed,” and “the number of confirmed cases did not decrease significantly. in step 2.5, so it was only moderately successful. ” Even if it falls, it can go back to 1,000 people at any time. “

However, Kim Moran, a professor at the National Cancer Center, said: “Even if the reproductive rate of the infection is reduced from the current level of 1.1 to 0.7 by strong contact control, the number of new confirmed cases it will drop to 700 after two weeks. ” There is an opinion to maximize the quarantine effect by making it bold, but the quarantine effect of Corona 19 will appear slowly, “he said, staying in the cautious tone of the three-step update.

Instead, Professor Ki said, “The more the distance stage continues, the more people are looking for ‘how to avoid it.’ “In the case of restaurants, gatherings of more than 5 people are currently prohibited, so up to 4 people are allowed, but only 1 or 2 people are allowed per table. It needs to be further strengthened,” he suggested.

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