Fixed DRAM prices stopped falling, expectations for supercycles increased

[아시아경제 이창환 기자] The decline in the fixed price of the major memory semiconductor products was found to have stopped after six months. Since spot prices have already risen significantly, expectations for improvement in the semiconductor industry are expected to grow in the future.

According to Trend Force, a market research firm on Day 2, the fixed transaction prices for 16GB server DRAM (DDR4 16GB R-DIMM) and 32GB server DRAM last month were $ 65 and $ 110, respectively. , keeping the same price as last month. Server DRAM fell for 5 consecutive months from July to last month due to increased inventory in the second half of last year, but prices stopped falling in December.

The average fixed transaction price for PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb) was also calculated at $ 2.85 unchanged from November. Trend Force noted that “customer inventory has been relatively low and the power outage at Micron’s plant in Taiwan has created a favorable environment for suppliers.”

Spot prices, which act as a leading indicator of fixed prices, are already rising. The DRAM spot price of $ 2.7 at the end of November increased almost 30% to $ 3.46 at the end of last month.

It has been six months since last May that the DRAM spot price reached the $ 3 range. DRAM Exchange predicted that DRAM prices will continue to rally and rise to a high of 10% in the first quarter of next year.

The semiconductor industry predicts that this year, the semiconductor market may enter the super cycle (super boom) in three years. The supply is limited, but it is believed that semiconductor sales could increase and prices could increase even more as demand for non-face-to-face (contactless) products continues to rise due to the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19).

According to KOTRA’s ‘2021 Export Outlook’, next year’s semiconductor market will enter a supercycle, with demand expected to increase 19% for DRAM and 34% for NAND flash compared to this year. In fact, Korean semiconductor exports have risen significantly for several months to last month, leading to an overall improvement in exports.

Reporter Chang-Hwan Lee [email protected]