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It seems that the situation of a new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) in Korea is going to get worse.
Amid various quarantine measures, such as the strengthening of ‘social distancing’ and the implementation of ‘special quarantine measures during the end of the year and the new year’, the increase in confirmed cases slowed somewhat after the Christmas holidays ( 12.25-27), but no obvious decline or clear pullback was noted.
Rather, as if following the trend of weekly outbreaks of patients, the number of new confirmed patients rose again. It is possible that the scale of infection increases from the middle of the week.
The ‘mutant virus’, which is spreading rapidly in the UK, was confirmed to have also entered the country as a result of being overwhelmed, triggering an emergency for quarantine authorities. This mutant virus is known to have 1.7 times more transmitting power than the virus currently prevalent in Korea, and if it spreads in the country, the government’s response to quarantine becomes difficult.
◇ 1.46 new confirmed … “The risk of community infection remains high”
According to the Central Defense Countermeasures Headquarters (Bangdaebon) on the 29th, at 0 o’clock on the day, there were 1.46 new cases of Corona 19 in Korea.
Three days have passed since the 26th (1,132) that the number of new confirmed cases per day has exceeded 1,000.
The recent crown 19 situation in Korea shows uncomfortable movements day after day.
The number of new confirmed cases was 1,241 and 1,132, respectively, on the 25-26 days of the Christmas holidays, and ranked first and second after the Corona 19 incident in Korea, but on 27 (970) and 28 (808). And it fell below 1,000 people for two consecutive days. This is due to the significant decrease in the number of inspections during the Christmas season, which is interpreted as a ‘temporary phenomenon’.
As the effect of the royal holiday weakened, the number of new confirmed cases rose again and, in particular, the number of confirmed cases of regional outbreaks that measured the extent of the epidemic surpassed the 1,000 mark.
On this day, there were 1.30 confirmed cases of local outbreaks, which also increased to 1,000 people after three days after the 26th (1,104).
Looking only at the last week (12.23 ~ 29), the number of confirmed local outbreaks per day recorded 1.58 → 955 → 1.216 → 1.104 → 946 → 787 → 1.30 people per day. It happened in about 14 people.
Among these, the fact that the rate of infection by unknown route is high, that it is not known when and where it was infected, which is deepening the concerns of the quarantine authorities.
Of the 14,199 new confirmed cases in the last two weeks from 15 to 28 this month, 4.66 (28.6%) cases are investigating the route of infection. This means that almost 3 out of 10 people do not know the route of infection.
‘The proportion of handling within the quarantine network’, which refers to the percentage of new confirmed cases confirmed in self-isolation, is also decreasing weekly since the end of November to 43.6% → 38.0% → 32.8% → 31.2%. This means that more and more confirmed cases are outside the quarantine management network of the authorities.
Quarantine authorities stipulate that this situation “still presents a high risk of infection.”
In fact, the spread power, which shows how many people infect around a confirmed person, in other words, the ‘reproductive rate of infection’ has dropped to 1.11 in the last week (12.20 ~ 26), but still it has not fallen below 1. If the reproductive rate of infection exceeds 1, it is considered to be “continuous”, and if it is less than 1, it is considered a stage of “suppression of proliferation”.
In a briefing the day before, Jung Eun-kyung, head of Bangdae headquarters, said: “The number of new confirmed cases decreased slightly on the 27th and 28th, but the effects of the decrease in the number of tests during the Christmas holidays. ”
Jung said, “Looking at the increase in the number of patients on a weekly basis, the rate of increase was around 30% in recent weeks, but it dropped slightly to 7% last week,” he said. “But the risk of community infection remains high.”
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◇ Nervous about the emergence of a mutant UK virus … Is it a ‘variable’ quarantine response?
In this situation, a mutant virus originating in the United Kingdom has even appeared, and the quarantine authorities are very tense.
According to Bang Dae-bon, the mutant virus was confirmed in three samples from four family members who lived in London, England, and entered Korea on the 22nd of this month.
As these families were positive upon entry, Bang Dae-bon is conducting research on contact persons such as passengers, as it is likely to be transmitted during the flight. At the time, 62 passengers and 12 crew members were on the same flight, but all crew members were negative.
In particular, four other members of Goyang-si’s family, Gyeonggi-do, who entered the country from the United Kingdom on the 8th and 13th of this month, in addition to this family, were also confirmed, and an examination is currently underway. detailed to detect infection with the mutant virus.
One of them in his 80s was confirmed after death on the 26th, followed by three family members one after another.
If these families are found to be infected with the mutant virus, community concerns about infection are likely to increase. It is known that one of them, who first entered the country, was confirmed as confirmed after self-isolation was lifted and there was contact with the local community.
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Experts believe that the mutant virus will be a ‘critical variable’ that will influence the future trend.
Eun-mi Chun, professor of respiratory medicine at Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital, said: “It was first discovered in the UK in September and the number of confirmed cases started to rise from November.” Indicated.
Quarantine authorities plan to prevent the influx of the mutant virus as much as possible in the domestic market, but there are voices mixed with concerns that it will not be easy to block the influx, given that the spread of the virus is strengthening in countries like the United Kingdom. .
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