[ad_1]
The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom are preparing for the worst Brexit scenario. This is because Brexit, a ‘no deal’ that does not have a trade deal with the EU in the UK, is visible. Three weeks before the deadline for a deal for future relationships, the two sides are scrambling to make a breakthrough. The EU proposed emergency measures in preparation for the no-deal situation, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson emphasized preparing for the no-deal with his own people.
Reuters reported that the European Commission, a member of the European Commission, announced an emergency measure on the 10th (local time) saying that there is great uncertainty as to whether an agreement with the United Kingdom will be reached on January 1 of next year. The emergency measures put in place by the EU Commission aim to ensure a basic connection of the road and air transport network between the EU and the UK if the two parties do not reach an agreement, and to allow both ships to have mutual access to territorial fishing. The EU Commission has proposed regulations on the provision of air services, the transport of goods by road and passenger traffic that will apply between the two parties for six months. Regarding the right to fishing, he proposed rules to create an adequate legal framework until December 31 of next year or until an agreement is reached.
“Negotiations are still ongoing,” Urzula von der Raien said, the day said. “Considering that the end of the transition period is very close, there is no guarantee that an agreement will be reached, when, or will be implemented in time.” AFP said. The previous day, Chief Executive Officer Fon der Raien and Prime Minister Johnson held trade-related negotiations in Brussels, Belgium, but failed to reduce their disagreements on important issues and decided to continue negotiations with a deadline of the 13th. Minister Johnson also wrote on his Twitter that day: “It is very likely that we will not be able to conclude a negotiation with the EU. As of January 1 next year, the public and businesses should prepare an ‘Australian-style option.’ Australia trades in accordance with EU and World Trade Organization (WTO) regulations and enters into secondary agreements in certain areas, such as aviation. The Australian-style option without a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU actually represents a no-deal Brexit, The Guardian said.
Prime Minister Johnson has instructed ministers to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, Bloomberg said.
The UK is not accepting the demand to comply with the EU regulations on the fair competition environment, one of the main problems, and the EU is prepared not to withdraw. According to the Brussels Times of the day, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander Dirkro emphasized that “no deal is not a good deal, but ‘a bad deal (a bad deal)’ is not better.” .
Investment banks and gambling companies are also weighing no-deal.
According to Reuters of the day, JPMorgan reduced the possibility of signing a trade agreement between the UK and the EU from 66% to 60%. Labobank and ING also reduced the probability of consensus from 70% to 60% and from 60% to 50%, respectively. Reuters reported that betting companies Paddy Power and Bet Fair have raised the possibility of not trading from 33% to 50% on the day. Another betting company, Smarket, also raised the probability of a no-deal from 19% last week to 58% this day.
The British pound fell as the possibility of a no-deal Brexit mounted. On this day, the pound fell 0.78% from the previous day to $ 1.3295. Taking into account the weakness of the dollar base, it shows that currency investors are concerned about the UK economic impact of the no-deal Brexit. On that day, the dollar index, which reflects the value of the dollar against the currencies of six major countries, fell 0.34% to 90.78.
“There is a possibility that the British pound will fall to $ 1.28 as negotiations have not concluded this week,” Carol Kong, a currency analyst at Commonwealth Bank, told Reuters. Earlier, the head of the British Central Bank (BOE), Andrew Bailey, said in Congress on 23rd last month that “the no-deal Brexit will have a more lasting impact on the UK economy than the Corona 19 pandemic.”
When the UK left the EU on January 31, the two sides agreed to conclude negotiations on future relations, including trade deals, within the transition period set for the end of this year to ensure a smooth implementation of Brexit. During the transition period, it remains the same as before Brexit, and the actual Brexit will take place when the UK withdraws from the EU Customs Union and a single market on January 1 next year. The two sides find it difficult to reconcile disagreements on important issues such as creating fair conditions of competition in negotiations, governance to resolve future disputes, and fisheries. Failure to reach a deal within the transition period will result in a no-deal Brexit situation where the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
[김덕식 기자][ⓒ 매일경제 & mk.co.kr, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]
