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| ▲ President Moon Jae-in is presiding over a meeting of chiefs and advisers at the Blue House on the 30th. | |
| Ⓒ Yonhap News |
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‘Big drop’, ‘Another drop’, ‘Drop of all time’ …
These are the headlines of the articles on the presidential approval rating that were published during the third and fourth days. It was worth it. According to Gallup Korea on the 4th, the result of a survey on the evaluation of the job performance of President Moon Jae-in in 1,000 adults over the age of 18 across the country from 1 to 3 showed a positive evaluation of 39%. It is down 1% p from last week (40%). The negative evaluation was 51%, 3% more than last week (48%) and the opinion reservation was 10%. If you look at just the Gallup Korea poll, it’s just a 1% p drop from last week (95% confidence level sampling error, ± 3.1% sample error. 15% response rate For more information, see the Gallup website and the Central Election Poll Deliberation Committee website.)
It was the result of a real meter survey on day 3, the day before, that dumped oil in the ‘lowest’ report. In the actual meter survey conducted in the first week of December, conducted from November 30 to December 2, President Moon’s positive evaluation of the performance of state affairs was 37.4%, 6.4% less than last week. On the other hand, the negative evaluation increased by 5.1% p to 57.3%. Realmeter analyzed that 40% of the so-called ‘concrete pass rate’ was broken, and the difference in positive and negative evaluations was 19.9% p, showing a flow outside the error range (sampling error ± 2, 5% p at 95% confidence level, 4.4% response rate) For more information, see the Real Meter website and the Central Election Deliberation Committee website).
The results of a joint survey of four institutions (Mbrain Public, Casestat Research, Korea Research and Korea Research) announced the same afternoon were similar.
As a result of a survey of 1004 people aged 18 and over from November 30 to the last 2, four institutions had a positive evaluation of President Moon’s state administration, 44%, 2% less than two weeks ago, and one negative evaluation 49%. This is the first time that the negative evaluation exceeds the positive, and the positive evaluation is also the lowest since the second week of July (95% confidence level sampling error and ± 3.1% sampling error p. 35.9% response rate. Details) See each agency’s website and the Central Electoral Survey website).
In summary, the rate of decline and the number of positive evaluations was different for each institution, but it is true that the negative evaluations outweighed the positive evaluations. It can be said that the analysis was missing the rate of support from traditional supporters such as Honam, 40, and women, and that even President Moon’s vote share of 41% during the last presidential election was in jeopardy.
So let’s erase the figures and media reports for the two days. And let’s take another step to see what’s in the background. Whether the lame duck of Moon Jae-in’s government, which some media brought to light, is real or an illusion.
Because of Yoon Seok-yeol?
First, fatigue over the prosecution reform The fatigue accumulated since the inauguration of President Yoon Seok-yeol is not easy. Prosecutor Yoon Seok-yeol threatens the positions of the justice ministers themselves, two former non-prosecutors. Needless to say, the motherland family investigation. The matter of Minister Chu’s son was dealt with without charge in September after having been in the investigation for more than half a year. Meanwhile, a political offensive by the opposition conservative party crushed the National Assembly. Recently, on the exclusion of President Yoon’s duties, Jang Jin-young, the Daejeon District Prosecutor’s Office and the Cheonan District Prosecutor’s Office, insisted that I resign.
In addition, he points to the Moon Jae-in administration, which has put prosecution reform as one of the top national issues, head on. Immediately after the administrative court’s decision to suspend the exclusion from duties, President Yoon requested an arrest warrant for officials from the Ministry of Industry and took the first step in the investigation of Wolseong Unit 1. It is enough to convince the suspicion that the tip of the sword of the prosecution, which initiated the investigation of the Blue House with former minister Cho as a ring, is directed towards the regime.
Yun’s move cannot be the conclusion of the prosecution reform. However, the media leaned toward the indictment focused on legal reporters, Chu Miae v. In addition to amplifying Yoon Seok-yeol’s conflict, it has furthered the long-awaited theory of ‘Gamran’ and ‘Yun Seok-yul’. Recently, instead of the seriousness of the ‘Inspection of the judge’ document, the reaction of the tax organization has been highlighted.
It can be said that such reporting topography also contributed to the fatigue of the prosecution reform. Meanwhile, among the supporters, there is a voice saying, ‘Why can’t I quickly solve it with 180 seats?’
There was already a more fundamental factor in the drop in approval ratings than the fatigue of the prosecution reform. As a result of the Gallup poll, the current government’s real estate policy (22%) was the number one reason for the negative evaluation. The conflict between the Ministry of Justice and the Prosecutor’s Office (9%) more than doubled. This was followed by “general lack” (9%) and staff problems (8%). Unlike reports of conflict between Chu and Yoon, reform fatigue on the part of the prosecution is said to be not the primary cause of the drop in approval ratings.
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| ▲ Justice Minister Chu Mi-ae (left) is on the morning of the 2nd to work at the Gwacheon Government Complex in Gwacheon. At the same time, Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol and Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol address the Supreme Prosecutor’s Office in Seocho-dong, Seocho-gu, Seoul. | |
| Ⓒ Yonhap News |
See related photos |
In this regard, current affairs critic Kim Jong-bae claimed that the media analysis that the current Chu-yoon conflict led to the decline of President Moon’s approval rating on the YouTube live broadcast of MBC was an “intentional distortion”. At the time of the controversy over the “ impression of attorney general Chae Dong-wook ” by the Park Geun-hye administration, the decline in Park’s approval ratings was that the conflict between the prosecution and the Ministry Justice was incidental, and existing factors such as lack of communication and investigation of the comments by the NIS had a greater impact. President Moon’s drop in approval ratings is the same, he explains. This is also the case when looking at President Moon’s negative evaluation factors in the Gallup poll presented above, such as real estate policy.
Furthermore, even with 180 seats, it is necessary to reflect on the separation of supporters towards the pan-passport, which was not supported by the reform. Except for the actual meter poll, the Democratic Party’s approval rating was still more than 10 percentage points higher than the strength of the people. However, there is much criticism that the Democratic Party’s reform work is slow.
In a plenary session of the National Assembly on the 9th, the ruling party promised to promote the so-called ‘Air Transport Law’ and the ‘Law of the Three Fair Economics’. However, it is passive in other reform agendas such as the Jeon Tae-il Law 3, including the Law on Prohibition of Discrimination or the Law on Corporate Punishment for Severe Accidents, and the Special Law for Investigating the Truth of Disasters. social and the construction of a safe society. It is said that the government and ruling party should be bolder to criticize criticism that the “180-seat ruling party” has been slow on reform efforts, including reform of the prosecution service.
It’s up to the president
President Moon said, “Procedural legitimacy and fairness are very important in the operation of the disciplinary committee of the Ministry of Justice against Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol.” It will also be a way to guarantee legitimacy and justice. “
When the president’s words were delivered, the Ministry of Justice delayed the Yun disciplinary committee date to 10. In response to this, it is noted that President Moon directly secured the physical space and space for reform work of the Yoon’s prosecution and disciplinary committee, which was triggered by the conflict between Chu and Yoon and the prosecution’s reaction after the Ministry of Justice’s decision to exclude President Yoon’s duties. In the future, President Moon, who is also famous as a principlist, faces the situation with ‘law and principles’ towards President Yoon Suk-yeol, who is suggesting legal actions such as administrative litigation, leaving the results of the disciplinary committee in the future.
According to Gallup Korea’s ‘Past Presidents Performance Review’ in May, successive governments showed a marked decline in approval ratings in their fourth year in office. Former President Park Geun-hye’s approval rating in the third quarter of the fourth year in office was 26%, and (as of the fourth quarter of the fourth year) former President Lee Myung-bak 32%, the former President Roh Moo-hyun 12%, former President Kim Dae-jung 28% and former President Kim Young-sam 28%. % Registered. It is premature to speak of the lame duck of the Moon Jae-in administration.
It should be seen that the recovery of the approval rating depends on the “laws and principles” of President Moon, unless there is a particular external factor. The improvement of the current government’s real estate policy is number one, followed by how much the government and the ruling party, including the reform of the prosecutor’s office, accelerate the reform process. Accordingly, it will be decided whether the mid-level support will rebound and the support will accumulate.
