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[최익재의 글로벌 이슈 되짚기] Politics of the Korean Peninsula in the Biden Era
Recently, there have been incidents in the US House of Representatives that could have a major influence on the policies of the Korean Peninsula during the Biden era. One of the two classes of resolutions proposed on the Korean peninsula was passed and the other was dropped. The purpose of these resolutions was similar. It was peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. However, while the resolutions related to the ROK alliance and the United States were unanimously adopted by the plenary session of the House of Representatives, the resolutions related to the declaration of the end of the war were not even presented.
No visible denuclearization measures in North Korea
Declaration of the end of the Korean peninsula prematurely
Influence in the ‘peace process’ of the government of the Moon
Content related to contributions to defense costs is also adopted
US concessions like signing multi-year contracts
The two resolutions passed by the House of Representatives on the 18th (local time) are a resolution to assess the importance of the alliance between the ROK and the US and the contribution of Korean-Americans, which were presented by Democrats Tom Suoji and Ami Vera, respectively. It was a resolution to transform into a mutually beneficial global partnership. As the title reveals, the main point was to strengthen the alliance between the Republic of Korea and the United States. Representative Suoji is the first member of the House of Representatives to express his support for Biden, and he is seen as a person who will influence the foreign policy of the new government.
Biden’s Aide Introduces ROK-US Alliance Resolution USA
On the other hand, the resolution calling for the end of the war, drawn up by Democrat Lo Kanna, was practically repealed by the expiration of the session without being presented to the plenary session. The content was that to establish a complete peace on the Korean peninsula, a declaration of the end of the Korean War was necessary. At first glance, both resolutions were positively reviewed and deserved to be approved. However, the judgment of the House of Representatives was different. There was no disagreement that both are measures for peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, but there were differences in methodology.
In particular, the political priorities were different. The United States Congress did not assess the end of the war as an urgent action. With North Korea’s continuing nuclear and missile threats, the declaration of the end of the war was deemed premature. The declaration of the end of the war has confirmed that this is a matter that can be discussed when the visible results of the denuclearization of North Korea are visible. Rather, I thought it was more important to solidify the somewhat loose alliance between the ROK and the US than the declaration of the end of the war. For this reason, the alliance’s resolution was accepted, while the resolution to end the war was practically rejected.
Congressional foreign policy has a great impact on the administration. This is because the parliament ratifies the treaties between countries and deliberates on the budget related to foreign policy. As such, the power of the majority parliamentary party is inevitably strong. Currently, the majority of the House is Democrat. Since the defeat of the Republican Party in the midterm elections in November 2018, he has held the place of the majority. The Democratic Party also won the elections to the House of Representatives held on the 3rd with the presidential elections. Therefore, the status of the Democratic Party as the majority party will be maintained in the new session that begins next year. Democrat-elect Joe Biden’s political stance toward North Korea is not much different from the current House of Representatives. It means that you have to negotiate with a focus on pressure.
The resolution of the end of the war was promoted by the ‘Progressive Caucus (CCP)’. It’s a meeting of minority liberal lawmakers within the Democratic Party, which began in 1991. Independent Senator Bernie Sanders also belongs here. Currently 95 of the 435 members of the House of Representatives participate. There were fewer than 52 lawmakers who signed the resolution. Korean Congressman Andy Kim, who was successful in re-election, is also actively participating in this meeting.
In addition to declaring the end of the war, they also actively participate in inter-Korean economic cooperation. This is another reason that the UN and the United States are required to ease sanctions against North Korea, and their arguments are not widely accepted in Congress. The CCP is known to push for a resolution to end the war again next year, but it is unclear whether it will be able to expand its support beyond the limits of the progressive camp.
The resolution approved this time on the Korean peninsula has several themes in addition to the alliance. The resolution also mentioned defense cost sharing negotiations between the United States and Korea, which had suffered difficulties in negotiations with the Trump administration. “We have to sign a multi-year contract with mutually acceptable content,” he said. It is an analysis that there is a meaning that the United States will make concessions to strengthen the alliance. Negotiations are currently suspended. South Korea proposed a 13% increase from the previous contribution of 1.38.9 billion won, but the Trump administration rejected it. When the Biden administration comes in, negotiations are expected to resume and conclude smoothly.
The joint training between Korea and the United States will be a touchstone early next year
Furthermore, the resolution also contains the phrase “we assess that the alliance between the ROK and the United States is playing an important role in promoting peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region.” It is interpreted as a euphemistic expression of a request for Korea to actively participate in pressure from China through the Indo-Pacific strategy.
The first touchstone for evaluating the Korea-US alliance in the Biden era will be the combined ROK-US training scheduled for early next year. Normally, the two countries have been practicing Key Resolve (KR) from March to April. Although there is a variable called Corona 19, the difference with the Trump administration will be evaluated according to how the joint training is carried out despite opposition from North Korea.
In Joya, Washington, it is assessed that the ‘peace process of the Moon Jae-in administration on the Korean peninsula’ must be aligned with the denuclearization policy of the Biden administration in order to move forward efficiently. Although the Biden administration will send support for the Moon Jae-in administration’s policy toward North Korea, there is also the possibility that it is out of sync with being too far ahead on its own. The same goes for the end of the war. As seen in the atmosphere of the US House of Representatives, it is said that it will not be easy for the declaration of the end to become visible without proper action from North Korea.
Reporter Choi Ik-jae [email protected]
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