[2·4대책] Experts “Hot measures … Participation in the reconstruction complex is key” (second comprehensive report)

“Positive incentives for reconstruction, such as the return exemption and the 2-year residency obligation”

“15% → 30% of the general amount of public sales … ‘Yeongkeul Panic buying’ a card to calm down”

“Contributing to market stability if the plan goes well” … “There is a possibility that the effect will be limited due to a long delay to completion”

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Dong-gyu and Hong Guk-gi = Experts said that the housing supply measures that the government proposed on the 4th were an amount that exceeded market expectations and assessed that if implemented according to what is planned will contribute to market stability.

It was positively assessed that the reconstruction and redevelopment projects were carried out directly by the public, and that the redemption of surplus benefits for redevelopment (return) and the exemption from the actual two-year residency obligation for members were also a bold review. of the existing regulatory framework.

However, I thought the key is how much the reconstruction complexes will participate in public-led projects, as the government intended.

Immediately after the announcement of the measures, Professor Kwon Dae-jung from the Real Estate Department of Myongji University said: “The government has introduced a burning measure.” “Supplying 320,000 units to Seoul and 850,000 units nationwide is a huge quantity. If delivered as planned, it will affect the market.”

Professor Kwon noted that the government has announced the direction of the policy, but there is no specific supply or content region yet. “The possibility of realization is a problem.”

Young-jin Ham, director of Jikbang Big Data Lab, also said: “The biggest supply signal since the government announced 300,000 units for the third new city in the Seoul metropolitan area in the measures of September 21 3 years ago. “. There were 375,000 households across the country, it was a very unconventional number. “

Rapham Ham said: “In the case of private public housing, such as conditional buyback and land leasing, since it is seriously supplied through public housing and public land, the advantage of homeless end-users is that they can provide housing at a relatively high price. low price. “

Park Won-gap, a real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, also said: “It appears that the government is involved in a total supply battle by securing and developing available land in the city, such as reconstruction and redevelopment, station area. , semi-industrial areas and low-rise residential areas Regarding the re-invitation, if the public reconstruction method is selected, it will be excluded from the re-invitation objective and the offer of reconstruction will be possible.

He predicted that complexes, which are in the early stages of rebuilding, have the potential to choose public methods with a rapid pace of development.

Also, in the case of complexes that are at the union establishment level or higher, there will be more concerns about existing and public methods, he said.

Kim Gyeong-gyu, director of the Korea Investment and Securities Institute for Asset Succession, also predicted that the countermeasure is “an innovative supply plan to reshape the housing market” and “if it becomes real, it will have a positive effect. in supply and demand in the medium and long term “.

Director Kim believes the likelihood of closing the deal is high because it is a method of supplying pre-sale apartments in the way existing owners want, although it is led by the public.

However, he noted that the success of the policy is also a factor in how it is specifically adjusted and coordinated in the process of deciding an order and putting maintenance into circulation because a large amount of goods is concentrated if actual publicly implemented maintenance projects are carried out at once.

He added: “That is why it is also important how private development companies induce maintenance projects to rebuild and rehabilitate cooperatives.”

In this measure, the government decided to reorganize the underwriting system to increase the amount of general offer in public sales from 15% to 30% and expand underwriting opportunities by introducing a lottery system (30%) for the general offer.

This is a card that will calm young people who give up the subscription due to the low subscription point and go to ‘panic buying’ (panic buying) with ‘young drag’ (grabbing the soul).

“It seems that the threshold for 20-30 generations, who were not easy to win in the subscription market, to enter the pre-sale market, will be lowered thanks to the advantage of the random lottery,” said Won-gap Park. Introduce the lottery system in the public presale. It is also a way to diversify the demand for existing housing ”.

It was also assessed that the government finally faced the problems of the current real estate market and reflected this in its countermeasures.

Ji-young Yang, director of the R&C R&C Research Institute, said: “The government has expanded the supply method mainly for rental housing, but this time it will supply 70% to 80% of the total volume as pre-sale housing. Han presented a solution that fits the perspective of the market and consumers. ”Evaluated.

Director Yang predicted that “the non-imposition of the restart and the exemption from the two-year live residency obligation is a forward plan that the market has not anticipated” and “may appeal to the rebuilding business instead of the past. “

In addition, it positively evaluated the announcement that it would shorten the project period by omitting procedures such as approval of the management disposition on the publicly implemented maintenance project, and said: “There are signs of distress to expand the offer in the short term.” .

Experts agreed that the involvement of major Seoul reconstruction complexes in public implementation and reconstruction will be an important measure of policy success.

Deok-rye Kim, director of the housing policy research center at the Housing Industry Research Institute, said: “First, the feeling of anxiety that consumers are impatient must be alleviated through the supply signal. ” in the next two or three years. “The government’s political efforts are important.”

Young-jin Ham also said, “This measure focused on incentives focused on public maintenance projects rather than deregulation covering the entire maintenance project. Due to the nature of the housing supply, the time interval between commissioning underway and completion is so great that it slows the rise in house prices rather than short-term stability. There is a possibility that it will be limited, “he said.

He then advised: “It is necessary to increase the predictability of the project by creating a successful business model that will increase the participation rate of subsequent commercial sites, such as stipulating compliance ordinances, ordinances and operational standards related to maintenance projects. public as soon as possible. “

The construction industry believed that private participation should be promoted for a rapid supply of housing.

The Korean Federation of Construction Organizations (Geondan-ryon), which consists of 16 construction organizations, issued a joint position, saying: “The success or failure of this measure depends on how much the private sector can participate.” He said he plans to suggest the formation of a council and the operation of a functioning TF.

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2021/02/04 16:53 Sent