[ad_1]
[아시아경제 오주연 기자] Before the end of 2020, the national stock market is breaking highs every day as the national stock market surpasses the 2600 line. The assessment of increased fatigue increased by more than 15% during the month of November alone , but the KOSPI surpassed 2600 at the same time and broke the 2640 mark during the intraday on the 25th. It is analyzed that it is different from last August when it spiked to the 2450 level in August and then fell to the 2270 level due to a short-term overheat adjustment.
Source = Korea Exchange
Hana Financial Investment suggested the KOSPI expected band for the first week of December at 2580-2660. Although the valuation has risen, he explained that unlike in August, the stocks that lead the index are not focused on specific sectors.
Lee Jae-seon, a researcher at Hana Financial Investment, said: “Currently, it is a very different atmosphere than the previous August, when there was a sharp decline due to overheating. If it was an overheating atmosphere formed by the solo technicality in that At the moment, many companies are now participating in the rally. “He was diagnosed. The S&P 500 index with the same weighting (10.1%) was analyzed to have outperformed the market capitalization-weighted index (1.4%) since September.
The researcher said: “The market atmosphere is still dangerous.” .
There is also an analysis that recently, since foreigners are leading the stock market, it is necessary to carefully monitor their supply and demand in the future. Foreigners net bought more than 740 billion won on the KOSPI market in November. Since the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19), it has been selling net every month except July, but in November it has continued its net buying process every day. Amid the increasing burden of KOSPI rise recently, it is noted that it is important to see how foreigners view the current level.
IBK Investment & Securities said that foreigners continue to supply and demand in the KOSPI market thanks to favorable factors such as the development of Corona 19, the international situation and exchange rate conditions, and predicted that if they start to feel the weight If the domestic stock market is overvalued, the strong buying trend could weaken. .
Ahn So-eun, a researcher at IBK Investment & Securities, said: “If you look at the relationship between KOSPI’s market capitalization and past gross domestic product (GDP) and the flow of supply and demand from foreigners, the supply and demand of foreigners will turn negative (-) as long as this ratio exceeds the +1 standard deviation of the long-term trend. “In 2008, when it exceeded the +2 standard deviation as it is now, there was a peculiarity of the global financial crisis, for so the size of the sale was considerable ”, he explained.
Researcher Ahn predicted: “As Kospi has entered an area that has not been experienced, an impressive phase is expected to emerge to determine the suitability of the current level.”
NH Investment & Securities predicted that the KOSPI borrower would move between lines 2560 and 2660. The tightening of corporate regulations by the US Democratic Party and expectations for the development of a vaccine for Corona 19 are factors on the rise. , but the increase in the KOSPI valuation is considered a factor of decrease.
For NH Investment & Securities, the earnings outlook for KOSPI companies is 88 trillion won in 2020, 128 trillion won in 2021 and 147 trillion won in 2022. Taking into account the favorable liquidity environment, the KOSPI index, which is currently in the range of 2,600, fully reflects the earnings outlook for 2021. It is the level that is being done, and to continue increasing, it is explained that the profit forecast for 2022 must be calculated. As such, it noted that the valuation burden was created, which could be a factor that partially suppresses the additional index increase.
In the short term, as the positive factors act more strongly, the equity price index may rise even more, but as the end of the year approaches, attention to the factors of uncertainty that have been hidden during the past it may increase.
Kim Young-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, quoted the semiconductor, chemical and transportation sectors, saying: “Instead of predicting and responding to the direction of the stock index, it is desirable to have a strategy that contains the beneficiaries of the economic recovery, which have increased relatively less from the stock market point of view “.
Reporter Oh Joo-yeon [email protected]
