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On the 11th, when the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the Corona 19 pandemic (a pandemic), the world is heading towards the ‘exit’ of herd immunity through vaccination.
Corona Pandemic 1 year
Bloomberg estimates population and daily vaccinations
75% of the population completed vaccination twice in September and October in the United States and the United States.
Estimation of a gap of up to 10 years in several months by country
If the number increases and the vaccination begins in earnest, the schedule will be increased.
The introduction and promotion of vaccine passports reached 17 countries, the EU also
According to Bloomberg News Vaccine Tracker, about 10 of the 111 countries that are currently vaccinated are expected to reach the population immunity target this year. This is the result of an estimate based on the average number of vaccinations per day per country and the number of populations. However, the “immune gap” is expected to be inevitable in which the time to achieve group immunity varies by country.
Estimated time to reach population immunity through COVID-19 vaccination by country. Graphic = Reporter Cha Junhong [email protected]
According to this, as of the 7th, 75% of the population is expected to be vaccinated twice in Israel next month and in September and October in the United States and the United Kingdom, respectively. Including this, 11 countries have achieved population immunity with a vaccination rate of 75% in the year. Chile, Hungary, Serbia, United Arab Emirates and Malta. In most countries, vaccinations started quickly and the number of vaccinations per day is greater than that of the population.
On the other hand, there are still many countries where it is difficult to determine the exit. According to Bloomberg, it is estimated that it takes more than 10 years for the immunity of the population to reach the immunity of the population in more than 10 countries, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Africa, if the current vaccination rate continues. Most countries have started vaccinations late and are relatively slow.
However, when the vaccine supply increases and vaccination begins in earnest, the time to achieve population immunity will be earlier. In fact, Bloomberg predicted that it would take the world 7 years to reach herd immunity level at the beginning of last month, but recently he predicted that it would be four years, and they have retired three years in a month.
Graphic = Younghee Kim [email protected]
However, the gap between leading countries and developing countries for a considerable period is expected to be unavoidable. In the case of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a global economic analysis agency, most countries in the United States and Europe are expected to complete vaccination within this year, and Korea, Japan, and Russia are expected to complete the vaccination. vaccination in the middle of next year. The moment of entering through the “entrance” of the tunnel called Pandemic was similar, but the moment of the escape differs from one country to another.
Countries where group immunity is expected this year are already beginning to regain their daily lives. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last month: “The goal is to complete the vaccination of all adults by the end of March and to fully lift the blockade by April.” In Israel, which entered vaccination on December 20 last year, 42.3% of the population completed two vaccinations.
In the United States, there were 297,76160 people (9% of the population) who completed two doses of Corona 19 vaccine beginning on day 6. This is the result of more than 2 million vaccinations per day on average. Since the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently approved the Janssen vaccine for urgent use, the vaccination rate is expected to increase further. On the 2nd, the president of the United States, Joe Biden, also moved the timing of vaccination for all adults in the United States by two months, from July to May. As vaccines accelerated and the number of confirmed cases per day dropped dramatically, US state governments are stepping up to ease quarantine regulations, such as the opening of some commercial facilities.
The UK also plans to fully lift the lockdown in June, as the number of confirmed cases has recently risen, averaging 340,000 or more doses per day.
Graphic = Younghee Kim [email protected]
In countries with rapid vaccination rates, the introduction and promotion of “vaccine passports”, which give vaccines freedom to travel and for daily life, are also actively pursued.
Israel has signed agreements with Greece and Cyprus to exempt holders of vaccination passports from self-isolation. Currently, 17 countries have introduced or are promoting vaccine passports. And the UK are also discussing the introduction. The European Union (EU), which has 27 member states, is also pushing for the introduction of vaccine passports, with those countries expected to increase further.
Graphic = Reporter Kim Young-ok [email protected]
Bloomberg estimates that South Korea recently received an average of 39,699 vaccination doses per day and, at this rate, it will take 75% of the population 5 years and 3 months to complete the 2 vaccines. According to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 29.6380 people completed the first vaccination from day 6. The inoculation rate relative to the population is approximately 0.6%. In the case of Korea, there is a high possibility that the speed of vaccination will accelerate, so the timing of group immunization is expected to be earlier.
However, regarding the government’s announcement of the target time for group immunity in November this year, Professor Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious medicine at Guro Hospital of Korea University, said: “It is not easy to train a group immunity in November, as declared by the government, the competition for obtaining vaccines in each country is fierce and it is not known if the quantity will arrive in time. It will be “.
The “immune gap” can act as an “immune barrier” in latecomers. Exchanges and trade will resume, focusing on countries that quickly gained herd immunity, which could create a gap in the pace of economic recovery.
In a report on the 7th, the Bank of Korea predicted that developed countries will generally achieve herd immunity by the end of this year, while emerging countries will generally achieve herd immunity after the middle of next year, with wide variations from country to country. to another. Consequently, advanced economies are expected to gain momentum in their economic recovery after the second quarter of this year, but emerging economies can expect a recovery after the end of the year.
Graphic = Reporter Cha Junhong [email protected]
If the immunity gap between countries continues to widen, it will inevitably have a negative impact on the world economy and will also escape the pandemic. This is because developed countries have no choice but to deal with the ‘boomerang’ in a situation where the supply chain of goods and services around the world is closely connected.
In January, the National Institute for Economic Research (NBER) reported that even if high-income countries achieve herd immunity, if developing countries and others do not start vaccination in earnest, the loss of global gross domestic product (GDP) this year from about $ 9.2 billion to about 1.386 billion 8,000). It is expected to reach KRW 100 million).
Reporters Lim Sun-young, Jung Young-kyo, and Seok Kyung-min [email protected]
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