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On November 3 (local time), the victory or defeat of the US presidential election is decided not by the entire nation, but by voters in about 10 racial states.
In the 2016 presidential election, President Donald Trump obtained 304 electoral votes, beating Hillary Clinton (227). This is because seven of the 538 electoral voters abstained or changed their minds, and as a result of the original weekly vote, Trump took 306 and Hillary 232. For this year’s predictions, we have to start from this point.
Four years ago, Trump won 30 states and Hillary won 20 states. In 2012, President Barack Obama won 26 states and Republican candidate Mitt Romney won 24 states. In the 2016 presidential election, President Trump brought in six Democratic gardens: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa.
According to the electoral information site Real Clear Politics (RCP), there are 11 states with a gap between the candidates of less than 7 percentage points in a weekly poll at 28 days. The number of voters in these 11 states is 179. In addition to this, a total of 181 electoral votes can be considered to belong to the disputed area, adding one from the second major district and the first district of Nebraska. Candidate Joe Biden already starts with 232 people, so he only needs to get 38 more to secure a majority of 270, but President Trump needs an additional 145.
Biden’s victory is becoming increasingly dominant in the Rustbelt of northern Michigan and Wisconsin. For President Trump to win, he must win seven or eight from the rest of the competition. In particular, losing states with many constituencies, such as Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania, is inevitable.
The gap in the polls in Texas is small, but the Republican Party hasn’t lost since 1980. On the other hand, Florida and Pennsylvania are regions that Democrats won in 2008 and 2012.
Therefore, it can be said that the keys to this choice are at the end. If Biden wins in Florida and Pennsylvania, he does not have to see the results of the other regions. Candidate Biden is a winner if he wins in Georgia, Ohio and Arizona, even if he loses in both places.
In Florida, based on average RCP polls, Biden had a nearly 4 percentage point lead in early October, but President Trump managed to reverse for the first time since April this year on the 27th, and on the 28th he adjusted again. . This is because the statistics reflect two opinion polls, such as Rasmussen and SP&R, which show results particularly favorable to President Trump.
Of course, in other agency investigations, President Trump is generally closing the gap in Florida, so it is analyzed as a super close battle that can only be learned by opening the lid. As of today, Florida has completed 6.92 million votes by mail or on the site, representing 49.2% of all voters. Four years ago in Florida, President Trump scored another victory by 1.2 percentage points (112,900 votes).
Pennsylvania leans more toward Biden than Florida. According to a poll conducted by Reuters and the Ipsos polling agency on the 20th and 27th and released that day, Biden received 50% support, 5 percentage points ahead of President Trump (45%). There is not a significant difference from the gap (4 percentage points) that was found in the same survey last week. President Trump won the state of Pennsylvania by a difference of 0.7 percentage points (44,300 votes) four years ago. It is analyzed that the probability of the defeat and final victory of President Trump in Pennsylvania is only 2%. However, there is a limit to predicting market sales from surveys only. In Wisconsin, for example, in the poll conducted by ABC and the Washington Post on the 20th and 25th, Biden was ahead by 17 percentage points, while the SP&R poll of 16-19 was tied. As a result, the average gap in CPR was 6.4 percentage points.
In Biden’s electoral field, he is confident of his victory by emphasizing the difference from four years ago. Candidate Biden has a small number of indifferent groups, with more than 50% of the national approval rating. In other words, the scale of ‘Shy Trump’ has decreased.
It also means that President Trump has not been able to quickly close the gap in the Rust Belt like four years ago. It is also a favorable factor for the Democratic Party that participation of people of color and youth is expected to increase more than before.
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