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Enter 2020.11.03 11:11
“President Elect Decides ‘Bet Winner’, Largest Turnout in History”
It is difficult to predict the race for the competition … “Gambling is just a game of odds”
US CNN Business reported on the second day (local time) that the 2020 presidential election ends with ‘Who will be the winner of the bet?’ In particular, it was reported that in the situation where it was difficult to predict the outcome until the last minute, the largest share in the betting industry was concentrated.
British gambling company Betfair Exchange announced that it took 274 million pounds (about 401.5 billion won) to win the US presidential election from this day. The company explained that this is a new record for a single item, far exceeding the £ 199 million turnout in the 2016 US Presidential election.
Reportedly, on the 29th of last month a person also appeared who paid 1 million pounds (about 1.46 billion won) for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. If Biden is chosen, the player will receive at least £ 1.54 million (about 2.26 billion won) and the exact identity is unknown, CNN said.
Odds presented by the betting industry so far have shown that Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump. Bettpair Exchange set the odds for Biden and Trump at 66% and 35%, respectively.
The odds of winning 65% Biden and 45% Trump were also reflected in the British player Smarket, and Bett Online, based in Panama, said: “The odds of Biden are slightly over 54%.”
However, the analysis that this move is just a ‘game of probability’ is gathering steam. In 2016, gamblers in the gambling industry, like most opinion polls, felt embarrassed after predicting former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s high win rates.
This year, it is difficult to predict the votes of the main rivals due to large-scale problems such as the corona pandemic, the general economic crisis such as the job market, racist protests and the controversy over voting by mail. In particular, with the pre-voting rate, including voting by mail, reaching a record high, the delay in the number of votes could create a vacuum and social confusion.
Trump has already announced plans to “ declare snap elections ” at the beginning of the count. Furthermore, if he is defeated, he will accept it as a ‘post-election fraud by the Democratic Party’ and will not overturn the lawsuit. That is why the win rate of the gaming industry is not reliable.
Currently, candidate Biden leads overall in various opinion poll indicators, but in some competitor actions, Trump is chasing within the margin of error. In the case of Florida, which will have a decisive effect on the presidential election, according to a joint poll by ABC Broadcasting and the Washington Post, President Trump also beat Biden (48%) by winning 50% in the survey of registered voters.
On the other hand, the betting company Radbrox estimated that the odds of winning on Election Day (Tuesday) night are 24% and the odds of getting out on Wednesday are 35%. However, he said the probability of the results being announced after the 5th is also 31%. In particular, he predicted that it will take several days for the count results in Pennsylvania to come out, and that uncertainty after the presidential election will also increase due to the region.
President Trump and the Republican Party plan to raise issues with mail-in votes that come in after voting day. Since the counting method is different for each state, it is unclear when the count is complete. Notably, CNN reported that the win-loss scheme is highly likely to be revealed only after the count is completed for Pennsylvania, which has the highest proportion among contenders who will determine the win or loss of this election.
