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According to Yanxi Luo’s predictions, therefore, as of July 13 in Greece there should be no not a single case of COVID-19. By May 25, the process of getting rid of our crown country should have been 99%. Greece will be ahead of most countries in the world, as Luo predicts that the cases of the United States will disappear on September 5, in Britain on August 20 and in Sweden “relaxed” on October 17. The Italy released on 8/30, Spain earlier on the 2 of the same month, while the Independence Day of the Qatar pandemic will arrive in February and Bahrain in April 2021. Regarding global (average) relief It is placed on November 27, 2020.
The possibility of setting a specific date for the end of the pandemic is one of the elements that makes Yanxi Luo’s methodology stand out from any other attempt by scientists to predict the immediate future. This advantage arises from the very nature of the tool used in this research laboratory. With many different factors in mind, predictive monitoring focuses on the future, and not just analyzing already available data. Predictions based on conventional methods of processing the respective statistical data are not accurate enough. It is not a guarantee of reliability that scientists of this trend are cautious and more or less follow the steps. On the contrary, Yanxi Luo dares to publicly set specific dates, such as milestones in the course of the coronation.
However, despite the weaknesses of established forecasting methods, the state mechanism in most organized countries around the world has relied on them to develop the required strategy. However, the situation would be completely different in many respects if the date of the end of the alarm, restrictive measures for the protection of public health and the prevention of the spread of the coronavirus were given in advance.
In a popular article specifically about that predictive monitoring and its usefulness, or Professor luo He explains in simple terms that “our method, by constantly monitoring future events like the end of the current pandemic, using the latest data as it is presented over time, can reduce people’s anxiety. This anxiety is the result of an inability to know what is going to happen in the near future. Furthermore, predictive monitoring could address excessive pessimism or, conversely, excessive optimism. Based on the data from our research, it is also possible to take more dynamic preventive measures, in the context of more general planning of decisions, behaviors and mentality with a focus on the adaptation of knowledge for the future. Most of the practices used today move in the opposite direction from ours. They focus on daily record of existing cases, deaths, recovering patients, etc. However, these data can only lead to defensive and passive policies, with measures such as the blockade of an entire city, although only a few cases have been recorded. ”
The end moves
Yanxi Luo, although he is a scientist dedicated to the coldest branches of knowledge, to complex mathematical and statistical analyzes, does not underestimate the importance of the psychological factor. This is why he points out that “all of us today, throughout the world, have a natural urge to know exactly when your pandemic will end.” COVID-19. Most people subconsciously calculate the due date because they need it mentally. A time limit is necessary not only for central planning to deal with the epidemic, but also because, by definition, it is difficult to manage uncertainty for the future. And there is uncertainty because the world we live in is complex, constantly evolving and extremely non-homogeneous. Like the epidemics that sometimes hit us. “
Of course, the Polytechnic University of singapore In which he teaches and practices as a researcher, Yanxi Luo is not the only university in the world that is trying to discover the secrets of the crown, at the level of studying and predicting its evolutionary curve. Similar efforts are underway at the Institute for Measurement and Assessment of Health Sizes at the University of Washington, Texas, Massachusetts, and at a similar center at Imperial College London. However, in all the predictions presented, deficiencies and errors are identified.
In the laboratory sanctuaries
The path of predictive monitoring that follows in Singapore is much more interesting than the previous ones, since it monitors constantly renewed forecasts of possible future events. This practically means that the only date presented in his paintings Yanxi Luo for each country it can change. Although at first glance this peculiarity seems to be a flaw in the method, in fact it is its advantage and the element that makes it reliable: because the forecast is constantly updated, in coordination with any new data. Therefore, in another painting, Greece escapes the pandemic the day before, on the 12th instead of the 13th of July.
In its essence predictive monitoring shows the pandemic on a bell-shaped curve instead of the horizontal “S”. This choice, always according to Professor Luo, fits better with the other characteristics of his method, as long as he actively captures the life cycle of communicable disease. However, scientists know that the stages of development of an epidemic always have the same sequence: initial manifestation, acceleration of the spread, turning point in which the cases of one day are less than those of the previous day, then decrease and decrease.
In your case COVID-19, the models of researchers from the Polytechnic University of Singapore present a “bell”, different from one country to another, but with a common characteristic: the “tail”, that is, a line approximately parallel to the horizontal axis of the graph: the axis weather. The interpretation of this characteristic is evident. After the increase, the peak and the fall in the number of cases, the curve becomes flat, remaining at very low prices, until it reaches zero, where it is interrupted. In general, the shape of the “bell” that forms the number of cases per country in relation to time is affected by factors such as the infection process, the details of each virus, population data (for example, composition old, dominant mindset). , religious beliefs, etc.), as well as reactions to the epidemic. How individuals or institutions adapt or challenge protection measures shape the image of the curve. And as paradoxical as it may seem, all these parameters, along with many more, are quantified, translated into statistics and finally captured in graphical representations such as Professor Luo’s.
Another crucial ingredient in the Singapore method recipe is the emphasis on SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) patient rate. Slightly simplifying the SIR research model, it is based on two parameters, B and C, to calculate the three variables of the vulnerable, those who are already sick and people who, in some way, have already overcome the disease. Parameter B refers to: a) the days during which each case can transmit the virus and b) the nature of this virus. Parameter C is the average number of people infected by an organ, as well as data on how it spreads to the study population, again in relation to the virus’ aggression.
Don’t relax
Obviously, all of the above seems twisted or completely incomprehensible, intended to be perceived exclusively by the minds of mathematical science such as Professor Luo. This may be the case, but at the same time it is useful to try to understand the mechanism behind scientific predictions, even as a non-specialist. However, Yanxi Luo states that “our initial expectation of the predictive monitoring method is that our forecasts for the exact dates of exit from the crisis by country will change.” Especially when real-life scenarios, like the measures decided by local governments and people’s behavior, constantly change.
Therefore, changes in predictive theoretical events, such as the end of the pandemic, can simply testify to the uncertainty that exists in our world. “
Professor Luo made it clear from the start that his predictions were made public on April 18 as a means of exchanging views within the university community. The development of the predictive monitoring method was motivated by his personal curiosity to distinguish, with valid scientific tools, the evolution of the pandemic. However, to his great surprise, he discovered that the website he created to feed new data, without having advertised it in any way, suddenly attracted millions of visitors. Reasonably, it is impatience for release and anxiety about when the COVID-19 nightmare will end that explains the growing and intense interest in the teacher’s work. However, it emphasizes, with the greatest emphasis, that “Our readers must be very careful with their predictions. Excessive optimism is dangerous because it can cause us to relax and the virus to attack. Our predictions may be based on science, but the data, by their very nature, lack certainty. No theoretical model is complex enough to predict the reality of life, even for everyone at any given time. That is why our predictions differ from country to country, as each is in a different phase of the epidemic. And, of course, our future will always be unpredictable. This is something that we must always keep in mind. No one had predicted COVID-19, although Bill Gates had warned about the devastating effects of a pandemic since 2015. From now on, we must all work together to address such unexpected and undesirable phenomena. “
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