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Of course, the climate in which investigations begin is negative, perhaps the worst since 2002, when the process began.
But of course they have to start. Greece has every reason to seek them out for various reasons. In the first place, because who does not want us to have a dialogue with the terms and conditions is Turkey. Its main objective is a discussion at a higher level than that of the technical committee of researchers and an unconditional and substantive negotiation. There it will be difficult for Greece to refuse to argue, as it will be exposed to the international factor. And in such a case, Turkey will impose its views or accuse Greece more easily than in the case of the failure of the investigations, of which it is responsible for the deadlock. An ideal field for the blame game that Ankara knows so well.
On the contrary, in exploratory conversations, which are confidential but not binding, although there is no definition of positions, the positive thing about the debate in committee is that they will set the agenda for the dialogue, if we are finally led to it. This is exactly what Turkey does not want, a dialogue with a defined agenda.
A second reason exploration should begin is that with its launch Greece is buying time for two reasons. On the one hand, because it wants to face and manage the different levels of the consequences of the pandemic, from health to social and economic, on the other hand, to have time to strengthen armaments, and therefore, negotiate against Ankara, which lies, understands countries that have military power.
However, military power is not the one that will give one state the solution over any other. It is essential, as a diplomatic asset, to be on the table. Of course, we must move quickly with our smart team, but at the end of the day, dialogue is the solution.
Some will argue that the investigative contacts “cancel” any sanctions that may be imposed on Turkey while the talks are ongoing. At the same time, however, while the explorations last, challenges like Oruc Reis, who for 82 days “threshed” in the Eastern Mediterranean and conducted research in an unlimited area, which we consider our own continental shelf and EEZ, disappear.
So, if Turkey, leaving the exploratory ones, returns to the practices of the period August-November 2020, then the sanctions or even other consequences will return to the table. The big problem for the neighbor at the moment is that the “thaw” of its relations with the EU, which Erdogan wants for political and economic reasons, passes through Athens. Turkey cannot overcome this hurdle at the moment.
Furthermore, let us not forget that the sanctions against Turkey were from the beginning an ineffective prosecution and the Greek side was wrongly caught up in this logic for so long. The good thing about the strategy so far has been that it has brought Greece closer to countries like France and Austria, whose concerns are common to Turkey.
Unfortunately, however, if Greece lined up behind the sanctions and waited for the solution to be given. It is clear that the sanctions that we would like to impose on Ankara are not going to be imposed, as there are Member States that do not want them. If Greece chose to get caught up in the logic of sanctions, without any further movement, it would lose valuable time, without the slightest benefit. Now, if the talks fail and Turkey resumes its aggression, it will be more difficult for the EU to argue in its favor, while Athens will be able to pursue measures with a different air, if it has been shown that the consultation document is out of print. Here it is important to mention that in terms of impressions but also of substance, who will be in charge of the responsibility can be crucial.
In any case, and if the investigators do not “walk”, there is always the recourse to The Hague. Here too Athens, to the extent that it moves with intelligence and flexibility, will add another weapon to its diplomatic quiver: as soon as there is no room for agreement (it will appear to have been exhausted), the call to The Hague (to establish the EEZ and the continental shelf) will become a one-way street. Only in this case will we have to constantly increase costs for Turkey, while the situation remains pending, but also to convince our partners that The Hague is the end of the road.
Let us not forget that the one who wants an agreement without the seal of the Hague court or a bilateral arrangement outside international law, and in particular the law of the sea, is Turkey. He does not want to, because he knows that in this case he will lose much more than he thinks. So if Greece does not find a way with Turkey and does not turn to The Hague, it will be trapped in a hostage regime, where it will think that something belongs to it, but without the seal of the court and of course without agreement. with Turkey.
* Konstantinos Filis is Executive Director of IDIS and international affairs analyst at Ant1
