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The mutated strains of the virus raise the alarm level of the global medical community, as well as pharmaceutical companies.
Moderna has already announced that it is working on a more effective vaccine against the new South African strain, while UK scientists argue that the British mutation of the virus, which is behind the rise in infections, may not only be more contagious but also more mortal. : Increases the risk of mortality by approximately 30% compared to other strains of the virus.
The British mutation of the virus, known as B.1.1.7, is also up to 70% more contagious than other variants in the UK and has been found around the world. American health officials even warned that the British official could become the dominant version of the coronavirus in the country in March.
What is the new data that British scientists have?
The mortality risk data comes from the British service NERVTAG, (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group) which examines emerging threats from respiratory viruses.
These studies link data from community coronavirus testing to deaths from viruses.
Although each analysis showed slightly different rates, they all indicate a higher risk of mortality in people infected with the British mutation than in those infected with other strains of the virus in the UK.
None of the tests showed a lower risk of death.
NERVTAG combined the findings into one model, estimating that the average mortality of the new strain increases by 30%.
How confident are scientists in their findings?
The British government’s top scientific adviser, Patrick Valance, said on Friday there was uncertainty about death rates because the information was fragmentary.
The first data comes from analyzes of a relatively small portion of the British population known to be affected by the new strain, says Susan Hopkins of the British Public Health Agency (PHE), adding that data from “some but not all sources “point to an increased risk of death.
“But we may not see the whole picture,” he said.
However, when asked about the uncertainty, John Edmunds, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the findings were “statistically significant” and should be taken seriously.
“There is enough evidence and the effect is not small,” he said, adding that the effect did not appear overnight. “We have been working on this for weeks,” he said.
Do we know what can make the new executive more deadly?
Scientists are not sure, but they are trying to learn more. “New information on this strain is still emerging and more efforts are being made to fully understand how it behaves,” said PHE’s Hopkins.
What scientists do know, however, is that the new strain shows a mutation in one part of the virus, making it more capable of attaching itself to human cells.
“This is the most likely biological explanation for the observed increase in transmissibility and possibly the increase in intensity that we were able to see,” said Peter Horby, a professor at the University of Oxford.
For his part, the associate professor of the University of Reading, Simon Clark, said that this stronger binding of the virus to cells could, in turn, trigger “a stronger immune response, which causes more severe symptoms.”
How alarming is the potentially higher death rate?
Professor John Edmunds, who led one of the analyzes, which speaks of a 30% increase in mortality risk, described the data as “a really significant tipping point in the worst case.” “This virus is very serious and must be taken seriously,” he said.
According to PHE, the absolute risk of death from COVID-19 infection (across all age groups) “remains low, both for the newer strain and for the older one.”
With information from Reuters
Read also:
Moderna: new trials to treat the South African strain
British virus mutation spreads up to eight times faster
EU dissatisfaction with vaccine delays
