[ad_1]
There was an undercurrent of fear at the Democratic convention the days before. But the party’s anxiety centered not on concerns that Donald Trump might actually win the US presidential election, but rather that the president “steal” them by sabotaging the vote or refusing to admit defeat.
Comedian Sarah Cooper summed up the prevailing view when she said “Donald Trump knows he can’t win fairly and honestly.” After all, the president has refused to commit to accepting the election results.
But, according to Gideon Rachman of Financial timesBy focusing on the risk of a stolen vote, Democrats risk downgrading a more conventional risk: Trump wins without “stealing.”
What the polls show
Polls suggest that Joe Biden has been well ahead of Trump for months. Those who note that the polls also predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton in 2016 are reminded that Biden’s current average lead of around 9 percentage points is much higher than Clinton’s.
But the advantage has been overcome in the past. In 1988, Democrat Michael Doukakis had a 17-point lead after Congress, but lost in November. The college electorate system is also structurally pro-Republican, meaning that Biden may need a four-point lead in the national elections to ensure victory.
The betting markets certainly aren’t ruling out Trump’s chances of winning. The latest bets place the president’s re-election chances between 36% and 43%.
Even some of the polls that show Biden far ahead contain details that suggest there may be hidden support for the president. 
Trump’s Opportunity and Obstacles
As reported by Financial timesSome seasoned Democratic politicians in key states feel nervous. Debbie Dingel, a Michigan lawmaker, told The Atlantic in July that a poll showing Biden leading by 16 points in Michigan was “silly.”
He summed up his concerns about voter sentiment by citing a social media post that went viral: “I thought I was a simple person.” But I was born white into a two-parent family, which now characterizes me as privileged, racist and responsible for slavery. “
Even citing such a text could be controversial in Democratic circles, as some supporters may find it credible and tacitly support racist sentiments. Democrats initially reacted to defeat in 2016 determined to address the problems of the white working class. But this was replaced by anger at the president’s behavior and a passionate focus on racial injustice.
That potentially gives Trump a chance. His electoral strategy is aimed precisely at the anger and bitterness of white voters. They would welcome an electoral process that focused on racial issues.
However, the president of the United States faces enormous obstacles, many of which he has created, such as managing the coronavirus pandemic.
Many Democrats have a hard time deciding how to vote for Trump – they assume it has to do with racism or mental retardation. But it is precisely this inability to sympathize with or understand those who are thinking of voting for president that is the Democrats’ greatest potential weakness.
According to the same publication, the Trump campaign will do everything possible to convince its key voters that they remain, as Clinton put it, “miserable” – a ruined and despised group. This strategy of bitterness has been effective in the past and gives Trump a chance to win again.
[ad_2]
