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Ankara’s decision not to renew NAVTEX of “Oruts Reyes” activities, literally just before the expiration of the previous one, is the result of intense diplomatic baggage in the last hours. Although it is a clear step towards de-escalation, sobriety is required, because if developments proceed as planned from Berlin, with the support of Washington, then we are entering a long period of difficult consultations with no guaranteed outcome and the risk of a resurgence is always high.
What exactly happened in the last 24 hours? The intense pressure, mainly from Berlin to Ankara, finally led to the decision of the Turks, shortly before six o’clock yesterday afternoon, to order the withdrawal of the investigator “Oruts Reyes” and the fleet of warships that had him. accompanied. Earlier in the day, Ankara reluctantly decided to launch a new NAVTEX to bring the Oruts Reyes near Kastelorizo, despite pressure from Berlin to maintain a distance of more than 12 nautical miles (nm) from the Greek uncritical island. It is recalled that based on the NAVTEX that expired yesterday at midnight, the “Oruts Reyes” had reached activity even at 32 nm. from Kastelorizo, while in their contacts with the Germans, the Turks seemed willing to move in an area between 6 and 12 nautical miles, despite calls to the contrary.
It is absolutely clear that the climate that had begun to form in the EU. on sanctions against Turkey was an important tool in the hands of Berlin. Despite divergent opinions (France, Austria more harsh and Germany, Italy, Spain more moderate), Ankara has been accused of violating the right to expand the coastal zone in Kastelorizo from 6 am to 12 pm, including by military means . of the Republic Katerina Sakellaropoulou present on the island, it would be difficult for the European Council not to take drastic decisions against Turkey. Finally, the “Oruts Kings” began to move northeast towards Antalya around 6:00 pm, after a little earlier the fleet of warships that accompanied them, moved to the naval bases of the Turkish Navy. At the same time, some units of the Navy (PN) began to withdraw from the East Aegean.
Some of the pressure on Ankara also comes from Washington. The presence of Mike Pompeo in Nicosia yesterday, in fact, all of a sudden, the day the Turkish NAVTEX was to be renewed, had a double objective: first to send a signal to Ankara, second, to put pressure on the Cypriots as well. The solution to the Cyprus problem remains a “key” to reducing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, especially since Ankara uses the occupied territories as a lever of pressure not only towards the Republic of Cyprus, but towards all countries in the region. An interesting, quiet but very robust aspect of the US intervention is the military. Yesterday, the support ship of the United States Navy USNS Yuma, set sail off the coast of Cyprus, passed within a visible distance of the fleet that accompanied the “Oruts Reyes” and the area that was operating the previous days, before heading northwest towards the Souda Naval Base. , where you will be in no time. This movement was perceived because, an unusual tactic for a US warship, its transmitters were open, making it visible through maritime traffic. Also yesterday, two US Navy high-speed boats arrived in Cyprus for exercises with the National Guard.
The de-escalation in the south of Kastelorizo is visible, but its transformation into a heritage will depend on diplomatic developments. Even a few hours ago, the Minister of National Defense, Hulusi Akar, was in Kas, accompanied by the entire Turkish military leadership at the time when the President of the Republic was in Kastelorizo. All of them will then go to the monument of Mustafa Ertugrul Aker, a Cretan Turkish captain who in 1917 distinguished himself in the sabotage and sinking of Entente ships, with his most famous “victim”, the French Alexandra. It is therefore absolutely clear that Ankara has withdrawn but will continue to press. After all, as an official from the Turkish Energy Ministry said on September 9, “Oruts Reyes” has completed the two-dimensional (2D) investigation and, if there are indications, the three-dimensional (3D) or drilling will follow. In ten days, the third floating drilling rig “Kanouni” will be completely ready to operate and everyone in Athens knows it.
Indeed, the time between today and the European Council Summit (September 24-25) is crucial. Practically what is pending is an agreement between Athens and Ankara to return to exploratory contacts, at the same time as through NATO and mainly through existing best practices for accident prevention, which for years were part of the Confidence Building Measures (MOU), efforts are made to establish a “red line”.
Yesterday, from Thessaloniki, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis declared, among other things, that “we are a peaceful country, ready to cooperate with all its neighbors and with Turkey. If she does not agree with the issue that is our biggest difference, the delimitation of maritime zones in the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean, then the International Court of Justice can provide a solution. That is why I insist that only the end of the challenges can become the preface to the discussions ”. The prime minister hinted that Greece was discussing the continental shelf and the EEZ as “important” differences, but left the Hague window open. The ball is out of play. Ankara has spoken of an “unconditional” dialogue, which indeed raises serious concerns in Athens. However, there is still room for improvement. If Recep Tayyip Erdogan decides to enter the game of diplomacy or throw him into the stands, returning to the tactics of tension, it will be seen very soon.
