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Weather: What the National Weather Service (EMY) Predicts for Fall – Check the Forecast Maps
Autumn is forecast to be relatively warm in Europe and probably less rainy in the Mediterranean region.
by September-October-November 2020 quarter, following the model of the previous announcements, EMY chose to present and comment the deviations from the normal values of temperature at 2m, precipitation (precipitation), but also geodynamic altitudes at 500 hPa, as they result from both the long-term ECMWF model, as well like the C3S multi-model system.
The maps are available from the C3S service (Copernicus) and can be searched with the results of all the models and parameters implemented by C3Smulti-modelsystem at https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/.
Beginning with temperature, both models provide positive deviations in Europe, with the exception of Ireland – Great Britain, where conditions will be quite normal, with the C3Smulti-model system appearing more frugal to the extent of this discrepancy. It is observed that in the region of Spain – Western Mediterranean – Italy Both models agree on a positive deviation of up to one degree Celsius, and that in the Siberian region the positive deviation can reach up to 2 degrees.
As for Greek area, A high probability of a positive temperature deviation, up to one degree Celsius, is forecast for the Ionian and mainland, while fairly normal values are forecast for the Aegean region.
It is recalled that these forecasts are an average image of the September – October – November quarter and the deviations refer to the average temperature of the period. Nor should we forget that in Greece Autumn is long and warm in terms of weather and often lasts in southern Greece until mid-December.
PHOTO GALLERY
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Forecast maps of the ECMWF and C3S multi-model system with temperature deviations for Fall 2020 (3-month average), with initial values of 08/01/2020
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Forecast maps of the ECMWF and C3S multi-model system with temperature deviations for Fall 2020 (3-month average), with initial values of 08/01/2020
On the side of rainfall (rain), both ECMWF and multi-model C3S, for autumn, provide, from normal to drier conditions in Europe in general, with the exception of the region of the Scandinavian Peninsula where some positive values are shown.
In the Mediterranean region and therefore in Greece, there is agreement on deficit of up to 50 mm, the accumulated precipitation for the quarter, based on normal prices for the period. This, of course, can be attributed to fewer rain episodes or lower amounts of rain per episode. Note that, Climatically for Greece, September 1st and October 2nd are generally dry months, while November is one of the rainiest months of the year.
PHOTO GALLERY
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ECMWF and C3S multi-model forecast maps with precipitation deviations (precipitation) for fall 2020 (3-month average), with initial values of 08/01/2020
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ECMWF and C3S multi-model forecast maps with precipitation deviations (precipitation) for fall 2020 (3-month average), with initial values of 08/01/2020
Since, to a large extent, processes in the atmosphere are driven by circulation at 500hPa, forecast maps (ECMWF and C3Smulti-modelystem) with deviations of geodynamic heights at this level are also presented.
PHOTO GALLERY
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ECMWF and C3S multi-model forecast maps with geodynamic altitude deviations at 500 hPa for fall 2020 (3-month average), with baseline values of 08/01/2020
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ECMWF and C3S multi-model forecast maps with geodynamic altitude deviations at 500 hPa for fall 2020 (3-month average), with baseline values of 08/01/2020
The positive deviations of geodynamic altitudes at 500 hPa, predicted by both models, in the central Atlantic Ocean refer to a case of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO pattern), which accounts for the relatively warmer conditions for the most part. Europe, as well as the relatively drier in the south, while the relatively higher rainfall heights, predicted in the North Atlantic – Scandinavian Peninsula, are associated with cyclonic traffic in this region. To make this more understandable, we quote the corresponding maps with predicted surface atmospheric pressure differences (Mean Sea Level Pressure – MSLP) for this quarter.
PHOTO GALLERY
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ECMWF and C3S Multi-Model Forecast Maps with Surface Atmospheric Pressure (Barometric) Deviations (MSLP) for Fall 2020 (3-Month Average) with Baseline Values of 08/01/2020
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ECMWF and C3S Multi-Model Forecast Maps with Surface Atmospheric Pressure (Barometric) Deviations (MSLP) for Fall 2020 (3-Month Average) with Baseline Values of 08/01/2020
The maps of the ECMWF and C3Smulti – model system of atmospheric pressure variations on the surface predict that the pressure difference between the North and Central Atlantic Oceans will be greater than normal (highest estimated by the ECMWF), which is also the criterion. to determine the sign of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as positive.
In closing, we remind you that seasonal forecasts they should be treated with caution, since their result will represent a large percentage of their reference time (40-60%), but in no case should they be rejected, excluding the prospect of improvement.
With information from emy.gr
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