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The nightmare scenario of 135,000 victims of the new crown pandemic in the United States in August, predicts a study by the University of Washington, refuting the success story that Donald Trump is trying to present, in view of the elections that are will be held in November for.
The researchers predict a doubling in the number of deaths compared to the number of victims in late April, supporting their calculation curve. with the intention of 31 States to “open” their economies as of May 11 and to eliminate the social distancing measures that had paid off by reducing the number of cases and people who lost their lives.
The death toll of the new crown worldwide exceeded 250,000, while the confirmed cases are 3.5 million. In the United States, almost 69,000 people have died from the Covid-19 pandemic, the highest number in the world.
The White House itself predicts 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. Internal report of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)The New York Times reported that the possibility of a new resurgence existed in mid-May, with nearly twice as many deaths before June 1, or about 3,000, of about 1,500 per day in the past 24 hours. The White House has made it clear that the Trump administration is not adopting the content of the report.
Although the number of infections does not show a dramatic increase as the measures are phased out and in some places, the engineering of the pandemic makes it inevitable that milestones will be exceeded in the near future with heavy symbolism.
“My personal estimate is that we will reach 100,000 deaths in early June,” he told AFP. Nicholas reich, professor at the University of Massachusetts, specialist in biological statistics. The Reich Laboratory, based on its own model and that of other major research organizations, concluded in the weighted forecast that the death toll of 90,000 would have been exceeded on May 23.
It seems that the Americans have already decided to relax the measures on their own, without waiting for official instructions, revealing data from their mobile phones collected by four companies (Facebook, Google, Descartes Labs, SafeGraph) in compliance with their anonymity and analyzed. by researchers at the IHME Institute at the University of Washington.
“The movement resumed in many states, even before the directives for the observance of social distancing were lifted,” he explained. Christopher Murray, head of this institute. “This increased mobility in the last week or the last ten days is likely to cause more infections.”
The institute, which has been criticized for being too optimistic, has drastically revised its forecast for the number of deaths, from 72,000 to 134,000 by August 4. According to his model, the 100,000 deaths will be overcome on May 21.
Of the nine models cited by the CDC on May 1, at least three predicted that the death toll of 100,000 would have been exceeded in four weeks, including two at Columbia University. The MIT predicts 113,000 deaths in the United States from June 1. Few models go beyond four weeks, as uncertainties remain high.
And caution is needed: All of these models have a large margin of error for tens of thousands of human lives.
Epidemiologists insist that no model can be used alone, since they all make assumptions.
The hardest thing to predict is the behavior of the world in the coming months. Will citizens wear protective masks or not? How many will be teleworked? Will “unnecessary” exits, in clothing stores, in restaurants, return to the levels they were before the pandemic broke out? Or will people go out of the house less? And how much?
“We are at a turning point, with the resumption of activity in some states but not in others,” which “increases the level of uncertainty at another level,” he said. Nicholas reich.
The ensembles in the United States hide the great inequalities in the vast country as well as in Europe. In the original homes, in NY and the New Jersey, infection cases are decreasing. In Texas, Illinois, or the capital area, your WashingtonOn the contrary, the numbers are increasing again. In California and Florida, the number of cases remains stagnant.
The situation is different between urban and agricultural areas and between north and south, according to the research model in Philadelphia who collected data on 211 counties.
“Tomorrow’s focus will probably not be on today’s focus,” David Rubin of the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania told AFP.
His team sees heat as a factor in slowing the pandemic, which could help marginally, but rising temperatures “won’t save us on our own” even in Texas, where restaurants and shopping malls are opening. again “The deaths will continue”.
The IHME researchers agree that the correlation is valid. They estimate that each degree Celsius added to temperature reduces cases of transmission by 2%, Christopher Murray explained, but added that the most effective measure, regardless of weather conditions, remains to maintain social distance.
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