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Today’s Summit of European Foreign Ministers marks a turning point in the future of sanctions against Turkey at the EU Summit on Thursday 24th and Friday 25th September.
The agenda is loaded: the debate on sanctions deteriorates
The fact that the Cyprus was forced to veto The sanctions against Belarus, if not also imposed on Turkey, at a time when the latter is intensifying its provocations and aggressive actions in the Cyprus EEZ, show that the debate on sanctions against Ankara for its provocations against Athens is clearly downplayed .
The current developments of Brussels in combination with all the weather that brings it Greece and Turkey will count the time to sit at the dialogue table, show that the EU’s priority is not the imposition of sanctions, but the promotion of a direct bilateral dialogue between Greece and Turkey.
In fact, this climate was confirmed today by the government representative Stelios Petsas, thus demonstrating the priorities of the Greek side.
“The question that leaders should consider is how the possible sanctions are activated, if Turkey does not continue with this behavior that it has shown in recent weeks for the de-escalation,” said Stelios Petsas.
After all, the point at this European Council meeting is that the question of Euro-Turkish relations automatically degrades as the agenda is overloaded with other issues. In addition to Belarus, the agenda includes EU-China relations, migration and asylum, as well as a number of economic issues, which were also reflected in statements by Nikos Dendias after the end of the EU Foreign Ministers meeting.
German “appeal” for Greek-Turkish talks
In this sense it is worth highlighting Signal sent again by Berlin and Angela Merkel through the Representative of the Government of Germany for a direct dialogue between Greece and Turkey.
Asked by APE-MPE, Stephen Seibert referred to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s mediation in view of Thursday’s European Council meeting, noting:
“Our call continues to be, for de-escalation, dialogue, the solution of the problems in question through direct conversations. This is supported by the federal government and personally by the chancellor through discussions.”
Furthermore, regarding the prospect of sanctions against Turkey by the European Council, the German government spokesman limited himself to half-hearted words and said that he would not give an “intermediate result” with a view to the Summit.
When asked to refer to a possible tripartite meeting of officials, he stressed that in any case no meetings are announced at the official level. 
Tripartite Merkel and Michel with Erdogan …
While Stephen Seibert’s response was similar and when asked about posts that talk about video conference, tomorrow Tuesday, Chancellor Angela Merkel with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the Turkish President, Tayyip Erdogan.
“I am not confirming any scheduled appointments and I am talking about conversations after they have taken place,” Mr. Seibert said.
It is observed that the Sabah newspaper in its online edition indicates that the process was mentioned in yesterday’s interview by the representative of the Turkish presidency Ibrahim Kalin, noting that Erdogan had conversations with the prime ministers of Italy and Spain, several contacts with the Mrs. Michelle.
“The objective of these contacts is to reduce tension in the area. We have clearly stated that we are ready to discuss all issues with Greece without preconditions, “added Mr. Kalin.
The German Consul and the … Compromise Macron
From the above, it is easy to see the power of the report that what is in the interest of Germany, as well as other major European powers, is to avoid imposing sanctions on Turkey. That’s why The German Chancellor takes the initiative by acting as “consul” to start the 61st round of talks between Greece and Turkey that were interrupted in 2016.
The latest messages from France and himself are also highlighted. Emmanuel macron They basically turned a blind eye to the prospect of dialogue between Greece and Turkey, putting the issue of sanctions in the background in the case of Turkish provocations against Greece.
We are close to repeating exploratory contacts
In fact, today the government representative almost announced the resumption of exploratory contacts, confirming the report in recent days that it is a matter of time before Athens and Ankara sit at the dialogue table and that the only fundamental question is whether this will happen before or after the EU Leaders Summit.
“We will make announcements when this event really closes. But we are in a good climate. We are close to repeating exploratory contacts. But how soon this will happen depends on both Greece and Turkey. We are in a good environment for discussions. “When we have something ready, we will announce it,” Stelios Petsas said today.
Of course, the attitude of Cyprus in the current Council of Foreign Ministers may change things. However, it should be noted that the sanctions list against Turkey is different for the case of Greece and different for the case of the Republic of Cyprus, for which there is a relevant 2019 EU decision.
From what appears to be the EU strategy, it is about treating Turkey’s illegal actions against Greece and Cyprus differently, and after all, Turkey itself is doing the same.
In fact, this observation was made by Cypriot Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulidis A few days ago in an interview with iefimerida, he said that “in the case of Cyprus, (ss Turkey) opts for the greatest escalation, unlike what happens in the case of Oruc Reis”. 
They are involved with billions of euros
However, the EU’s difficulty in taking a more decisive stance on the sanctions issue effectively reflects the European banks’ report on the Turkish economy.
With Title “Erdogan has strong allies, especially in Europe.The German daily Welt notes that EU financial institutions fear Turkey’s collapse.
Many of them are still stuck in the country with billions of euros and the West has a lot to lose. This makes sanctions more difficult and strengthens Erdogan’s position.
According to the report, there are strong players who indirectly support Turkey, because they have to.
These are the European banks, which, even after four years of ongoing Turkish crisis, are still involved in Turkey with investments of billions of euros.
Western financial institutions will have to fear serious depreciation if the country is entering a major balance of payments crisis, as Moody`s recently warned.
Turkey’s economic problems may be due to itself, but they could spread to Europe and become a problem for the West.
In their own banks
Therefore, Europeans are likely to turn their attention to their own banks, in light of discussions about possible sanctions against Ankara at the EU summit in late September, which in turn strengthens Erdogan’s position.
The figures sound threatening and quite capable of jeopardizing the stability of the European banking sector.
Yes, the participation of foreign financial institutions in Turkey has decreased in recent years.
However, at the end of the first quarter, world banks had loans to Turkey or Turkish companies, which still stood at $ 182 billion, just under € 154 billion.
This is according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which records global financial and credit flows. 
What amounts are at stake
In particular, Spanish financial institutions must wait for the situation in Turkey to stabilize.
For them, 62,000 million dollars are at stake, about 52,000 million euros. French banks owe $ 29 billion (almost € 25 billion), British banks record more than $ 12 billion in loans in Turkey, and German banks are involved with around $ 11 billion. Italian banks have invested around $ 8.7 billion.
The large Spanish bank BBVA has invested significant sums in Turkey. It owns almost 50% of Garanti Bank, the third largest financial institution in the country.
The stock has lost half its value since the beginning of the year and fell to its lowest level since 1995 on Wednesday.
They will appear in the balance sheets
Another bank with a Turkish branch is the French BNP Paribas. Its share price is 30% below the level of early January.
They are already the first investors to openly bet that turmoil in the Turkish market will soon be reflected in the balance sheets of European banks.
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