[ad_1]
Of course, no one has the magic crystal ball of the future. But American scientists, considering that the Covid-19 pandemic is very likely to last about two years, have presented the three most likely scenarios of how it could develop in the next two years.
Researchers at the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy based their predictions on the experience of eight previous influenza pandemics in the 18th century, as well as on data from the current pandemic. Although Covid-19 is not caused by the influenza virus but by the coronavirus, both types of viruses affect the respiratory system and have similarities, such as the spread of asymptomatic carriers (in the case of the new coronavirus to a greater extent than the virus of the flu). )
Scientists estimate that, given the easy spread of SARS-CoV-2, about 60% to 70% of the population in each country will need to acquire immunity to achieve herd immunity (“herd”) and so on. a “stop” to the pandemic, something that will take time.
The three possible scenarios for the future are:
* Scenario 1 (the “ugly”): The current first wave of Covid-19 is followed by a series of smaller waves (“peaks and valleys”) for one and a half to two years, gradually weakening by 2021.
* Scenario 2 (“bad”): The first wave of this spring is followed by an even bigger second wave of shocks this fall or winter, as happened with the “Spanish Flu” pandemic in 1918. Then there will be one or more waves small in 2021.
* Scenario 3 (the “good”): The first current wave is not followed by another wave or a succession of waves, but by a “slow shutdown” of the Covid-19 transmission without major “ups and downs”.
During subsequent waves, if any, authorities will likely need to periodically take new restrictive measures, such as social distancing, and then relax them again, primarily to ensure that health systems are not in danger of collapse, according to the researchers. due to abrupt mass admission of patients with coronary heart disease.
Regardless of the ultimately prevailing scenario, “we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with new outbreaks that periodically focus on different geographic areas,” the American scientists concluded.
“It just caught our eye then.” It’s not just about getting to the top, as some people think, “epidemiologist Mark Lipsic of the Harvard University School of Public Health told the New York Times. in the new Minnesota study, he estimated that a single “round” of social distancing with the closing of stores, schools and other restrictions would not be enough in the long run.
If the cases exceed a certain limit set by local authorities again (for example, 35 cases per 10,000 inhabitants), it may be necessary to reestablish social distance, according to a second study in Science, in which it also participated. Dr. Lipsic. The researchers also point out that as the capacity of intensive care units (ICUs) increases, so does the feeling of security in the health system, the next social distancing may “be activated” at higher levels (for example, in 70 new cases). for every 10,000 inhabitants).
And this second study estimates that it will take time to get herd immunity and that a single effort to socialize is probably not enough, like the one that is now in progress or gradually relaxing (depending on the stage of the epidemic curve in each). country) An unknown key factor in the Covid-19 “equation” is when a vaccine will become widely available, so that a large part of the population will be immunized. If this happens unexpectedly quickly, then perhaps a more optimistic fourth scenario prevails.
->
