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Of course, no one has the magic crystal ball of the future. But American scientists, considering the pandemic very likely Covid-19 It will last approximately two years, presenting the three most probable scenarios of how it could evolve in the next two years.
Researchers at the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy forecasts his experience of eight previous influenza pandemics that reached the 18th century, as well as data on the current pandemic. Although Covid-19 is not caused by the flu virus, it is derisionBoth types of viruses affect the respiratory system and have similarities, such as spread by asymptomatic carriers (in the case of the new colon to a greater extent than influenza viruses).
According to this study, scientists estimate that given the easy spread of SARS-CoV-2, approximately 60% to 70% of the population in each country will need to acquire immunity to achieve herd immunity (“herd”). ) and thus a “stop” of the pandemic, something that will take time.
The three possible scenarios for the future are:
- Scenario 1 (the “ugly”): The current first wave of Covid-19 is followed by a series of smaller waves (“peaks and valleys”) for a year and a half or two years, gradually weakening by 2021.
- Scenario 2 (the “bad”): The first wave this spring is followed by an even bigger second wave of accidents this fall or winter, as happened with the “Spanish Flu” pandemic in 1918. Then there will be one or more smaller waves in 2021.
- Scenario 3 (the “good”): The current first wave is not followed by another wave or wave succession, but by a “slow shutdown” of the Covid-19 transmission with no major “ups and downs.”
During subsequent waves, if any, authorities will likely need, according to researchers, to periodically take new restrictive measures such as social distancing and then relax them again, primarily to ensure that health systems are not in danger of collapse. due to abrupt mass admission of patients with coronary heart disease.
Regardless of which scenario will ultimately prevail, “We need to be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with new outbreaks periodically focused on different geographic areas,” he said. American scientists conclude.
“It just came to our attention then. It’s not just a matter of getting to the top, as some people think,” Harvard University School of Public Health Mark Lipsic, who worked with the newcomer, told the New York Times. . study Minnesota estimated that in the long run, a single “round” of social distancing with the closing of stores, schools and other restrictions would not be enough.
If the cases exceed a certain limit established by local authorities again (for example, 35 cases per 10,000 inhabitants), it may be necessary to reestablish social distancing, according to a second study in Science and published by APE. -BPE, in which Dr. Lipsic also participated The researchers also point out that as the capacity of intensive care units (ICU) increases, so does the feeling of security of the health system, the next social distancing may “activate” at higher levels (for example, in 70 new cases). for every 10,000 inhabitants).
And this second study estimates that it will take time to get herd immunity and that a single effort to socialize is probably not enough, like the one that is now in progress or gradually relaxing (depending on the stage of the epidemic curve in each). country) An unknown key factor in the Covid-19 “equation” is when a vaccine will become widely available, so that a large part of the population will be immunized. If this happens unexpectedly quickly, then perhaps a more optimistic fourth scenario prevails.
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