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“If I could give President Erdogan some advice, I would say, ‘Don’t do it, this is not a game you can win,'” Andrei Kortunov said.
Turkey’s practices in the eastern Mediterranean lead to its isolation from its neighbors and its opposition to Russia, says Andrei Kortunov, director general of the Russian Council on Foreign Relations (RIAC), Russia’s most influential think tank on international politics. linked to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In a telephone interview, Kortunov condemned the Erdogan-Saraj agreement on the EEZ and the opening of the Varosya waterfront, and warned that any direct Turkish military involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would be Moscow.
Despite the provisional ceasefire agreement negotiated by Russia, clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue in Nagorno-Karabakh. Who is responsible for this?
– In a conflict of such historical depth and accumulated hostility, there must be political will on both sides to avoid an uncontrollable escalation. This remains an open question. Perhaps there are centers in both countries that do not want to stop the war. In Azerbaijan there are expectations of conquering more territories and obtaining better negotiating positions. Perhaps also in Armenia there are expectations that they can recover territories lost in the first days of hostilities. Azerbaijan is likely to have a greater appetite to continue the attack so as not to “freeze” the situation for another 30 years, so it may be reluctant to comply with the ceasefire. But the situation is fluid.
– Russia has a defense agreement with Armenia, where it maintains two military bases. What is the red line that, if violated by the Azeris, will force Russia to intervene militarily?
– Russia has security commitments with Armenia. But they do not extend to Nagorno-Karabakh, which is legally part of Azerbaijan and is not recognized as an autonomous republic, not even by Yerevan. Of course, from a political point of view, Russia cannot remain inactive when people die there. For the moment, his intervention refers to the diplomatic and political field. There are two red lines. The first is not to expand Azerbaijan’s attacks on Armenian territory. If that happens, Russia will honor its commitments. The second red line, although not explicitly stated, is a possible immediate large-scale military intervention by Turkey, which in my opinion could also trigger a conflict with Russia. Because such a thing would turn a transnational conflict into a regional one, and there Russia could not remain passive.
– Turkey is already actively intervening, encouraging Azerbaijan to seek a military rather than a political solution, offering large-scale arms assistance and, according to international media, sending mercenaries from Syria to the Caucasus. How do you comment on Ankara’s position?
– Of course it is sad to hear about the dispatch of mercenaries, something that threatens the expansion of international terrorism. Today they are fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, tomorrow they may be in Afghanistan or elsewhere. So there is a long-term security problem, not just for the Caucasus. Of course, Ankara denies having sent mercenaries to Nagorno-Karabakh. But if Turkey is directly involved, then the first steps to address the problem should be taken by the countries that participate in the same military alliance with Turkey, NATO. Brussels must investigate the issue because ultimately it represents a potential threat not only to the Caucasus but also to Europe.
– Defying occasional tensions, Russia and Turkey have dramatically tightened their arms and energy ties in recent years, while relations between Athens and Moscow are not at their best. Should we in Greece fear that Russia may support Turkey in its claims against our country, in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean?
– I do not think. The Turkish government’s attempt to draw an EEZ with Libya, or rather with just one part of Libya, the government (Saraj) that controls the western part of the country, has isolated Turkey in the region. It does not only concern Greece. Of course, Greece is an important country, but the issue also concerns Cyprus, with which we have good relations, it also concerns Egypt and Israel. If you look at the map, you will be convinced that what Turkey is doing is leading to isolation. It would be irresponsible for Russia to support Turkey against all its neighbors in the region.
– How would you comment on Turkey’s violations of the Cypriot EEZ and the opening of Varos, which violates repeated decisions of the Security Council?
– I think it’s part of your overall approach. Turkey is concerned, considering that it is excluded from the Eastern Mediterranean and is trying to somehow confirm its position in the region. But instead of trying to come to terms with his neighbors, he resorts to intimidating them. It is not wise to mark many places with your weapon at the same time and it is not just about Russia, I think nobody appreciates that behavior.
– Relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated in recent years. How do you see the evolution of things after the US elections if Biden wins and Trump is re-elected?
– The good thing for Russia is that, unlike other countries, it has no reason to worry about the outcome of the American elections, because that will not change much the relations between the United States and Russia. The downside is that these relationships will continue to be problematic in any case. However, there are different nuances between the two candidates on a number of issues. On issues like nuclear arms control and the deal on Iran’s nuclear program, Biden is more receptive to working with Moscow. On the other hand, on the Ukraine issue, Biden may have a tougher line toward Russia. It will also raise the issue of human rights in Russia and elsewhere. The problem, in my opinion, is that neither Trump nor Biden demonstrate that they can bring together a divided America, so we will not see a coherent Washington-based international political strategy anytime soon. And this is a problem not only for Russia, but for the whole world.
The 12 mile extension
– Recently, the Russian Embassy in Athens highlighted the need to respect International Maritime Law and reminded Greece of its right to extend its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles.
– Yes, I think it’s a reasonable attitude. Turkey is almost completely isolated on this issue. If I could give President Erdogan some advice, I would say, “Don’t do it, it’s not a game you can win.” I don’t have an anti-Turkish mentality, but I don’t think his approach is the right one.
