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The scenario of the universal use of the mask until spring and the confinement with small doses of encouragement, until March, is getting closer and closer. The thousands of coronavirus cases registered daily, the record of horror with dozens of deaths, and the increase in the number of intubated, putting the resilience of hospitals to the test, make it difficult to return to normalcy quickly.
Two days after the imposition of the quarantine across Greece, the predictions of a difficult week are confirmed as new records of cases and deaths are expected. After all, with 150 dead in a week and 69 in two days, it raises a general alarm.
The spread of the virus is a fact and affects not only closed structures (nursing homes, prisons) but also people. No one survives the pandemic and the virus does not “belong” only to the elderly and vulnerable groups, just as the young and healthy become its victims.
Scientists and the government will wait the next 15 days to make decisions about which activities could be opened and which ones will remain closed for several weeks.
If there is even a small escalation of cases and the pressure on the ICU is reduced, from the beginning of December it is not ruled out that the schools will reopen. And timidly, open the wholesale trade and the retail stores to anticipate the festive season where the turnover increases drastically.
Dead and intubated within a week
November 2
7 dead – 153 intubated
November 3
13 – 169
November 4th
18 – 179
November 5th
29 – 187
November 6th
14 – 196
November 7
34 – 207
November 8th
35 – 228
It is considered difficult or unlikely to open bars and restaurants or the movement to other prefectures is not controlled at least until the holidays, as there is a fear of relaxation. In other words, giving the wrong message for the victory against the coronavirus and for the Greeks to run the holidays and New Years Eve in the shops.
Thus, the lock in the restaurant for more than the next three weeks brings together many possibilities. There is also the “open – close” scenario, that is, periods alternating with blocking and relaxation.
Reflections on an alternative mini-blockade plan are gaining ground, as, according to its supporters, valuable time is being saved for hospitals to regain their strength, while at the same time experts estimate that citizen compliance will be more dynamic, as there is light in tunnel of restrictions, as reported by Sunday’s Step. 
The proposal of Demosthenes Sarigiannis, professor of Environmental Engineering in the Department of Chemical Engineering of the Polytechnic School of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, moves in this context:
“Our proposal is an alternate mini-blockade. We have made a scheme with 21 days of confinement, 14 days open that after three – four cycles takes us out with 500, 600, at most 800 cases per day during all this time.”
According to the professor, “the most important of all these numbers is the decompression of the public health system, in the sense that the calculations show that if we follow this pattern, it corresponds to no more than 200 ICU beds”.
The hospitals
The first quarantine lasted 45 days, no one knows for sure how long it will last this time. However, experts analyze models and talking to MEGA explain what will judge the duration. All this at a time when 62% of ICU beds are already occupied, while, as an intensive care professor explains, 4 out of 10 intubated patients sadly lose the battle and die.
“The exponential growth observed in northern Greece, and especially in Thessaloniki, in the last week was something that exceeded all expectations, with the result that decisions finally came faster.”
The Thessaloniki and Attica hospitals are under the greatest burden, with 75% and 67% fill respectively. Simple coronavirus beds are also under pressure, as the number of patients reached 2,059, out of a total of 4,452 beds available.
“The goal is to reduce the cases so that we can manage the situation as much as possible even before the outbreak that was observed in recent days.”
If the measures are implemented by everyone, experts estimate that on November 30 the country will gradually begin to breathe normality. “In a week we will know where we are going, in two or three weeks we will know where we have arrived.”
A condition for lifting the quarantine is that the cases approach 400 and the number of intubated patients is reduced to 50. Otherwise, the extension of the quarantine will be one-way.
“At the end of November, if all goes well, we can move to the next stage, so measures will gradually be lifted.” However, according to experts, some restrictions will be maintained after the quarantine is lifted, while the mask will accompany us until spring.
According to epidemiologists, the first 7 days and then the 14 days will show how much longer it will take to control the pandemic in our country. The situation will once again be manageable if the “hard indicators” fall to similar levels to those registered in early October, when cases were in the triple digits and hovered around 400 and intubated ones did not exceed 100. 
According to the experts, if we all follow the measures, in three weeks we will begin to see results with a reduction in cases. Then we can move on to the next stage, with the gradual lifting of the measures. However, protective measures such as wearing a mask indoors and outdoors, distances, and more will be maintained.
What the data shows
However, yesterday’s data on the course of the coronavirus shows that young and middle-aged people are not out of the picture. On the contrary, more and more people are getting sick and dying.
Yesterday, the new cases of coronavirus in our country amounted to 1,914, of which 39 were detected after controls at the country’s entry gates. The total number of cases is 56,698, of which 54.2% are men.
4429 (7.8%) are considered related to trips from abroad and 15678 (27.7%) are related to an already known case.
228 of our fellow citizens are being treated by intubation. Their average age is 66. 57 (25.0%) are women and the rest are men. 88.2% of intubated patients have an underlying disease or are 70 years or older. 323 patients have been discharged from the ICU.
Finally, we have 35 more deaths registered and 784 deaths in total in the country. 316 (40.3%) women and the rest men. The average age of our dying fellow citizens was NA years and 96.4% had an underlying disease and / or 70 years or more.
The daily distribution of confirmed cases is as follows:
39 years the average age of the cases
Of the total of 56,698 cases, 4,429 (7.8%) are considered related to travel from abroad, 15,678 (27.7%) are related to an already known case and the rest are not related to travel or any other known case or they are still under investigation.
The average age of the cases is 39 years (range 0 to 103 years), while the average age of death is 79 years (range 25 to 103 years). The age distribution of (a) total cases, (b) cases that resulted in death, and (c) patients treated by intubation, is as follows: 
Geographic dispersion
The map shows the geographical distribution of total COVID-19 cases (since the beginning of the epidemic) by Regional Unit of the country, according to the declared address of permanent residence of the patient, or the address of temporary residence for tourists and other temporary residents. in Greece.
It includes both cases with a travel history (“imported”) and cases with possible national transmission. 
The evolution of the total cases and the total number of deaths of patients with COVID-19 is presented in the following diagram (on a logarithmic scale). 
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