The coronavirus mutation “prefers” ages 0-19

In a Facebook post, Mosialos discusses the findings of an Imperial College report on the transmission of mutation of the coronavirus that is spreading rapidly in Britain, while it was also identified in Greece.

A review of the data on the news so far mutation coronavirus, first detected in Britain and later in other countries, including Greece recently, Elijah Mosialos through his extensive Facebook post.

As the professor of Health Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) points out, among other things, the epidemiological report of Imperial College London on the transmission of the variant B.1.1.7 coronavirus, cites findings that suggest the situation in the UK is likely to get worse.

According to the data, as of mid-December, the original strain, and not the variant, was still prevalent among those over 60, but the new variant was found to be present. more often in age groups 0-19 years. On the other hand, “this does not necessarily mean a greater biological sensitivity in children and adolescents towards adults and should not be interpreted as such,” he says.

Mr. Mosialos’ position in detail:

«Transmission of the variant B.1.1.7 of the coronavirus that was recently identified in our country

The epidemiological report of the Imperial College – London, due to the transmission of the variant B.1.1.7 of the coronavirus, recently identified in our country, presents findings that the situation in the United Kingdom is likely to worsen.

According to the data, until mid-December the original strain – and not the variant – continued to dominate among those over 60 years of age. However, the new variant was found to be more common in the 0-19 age groups. According to the report, the analyzes agree that this variant has a significant transmission advantage. The estimated difference in breeding numbers R between this variant and others (non-worrisome variants) is between 0.4 and 0.7. It is also noteworthy that these estimates of the variant transmission advantage apply to a period during which there were high levels of physical distancing in England. We do not yet know the exact mechanism of how the variant increases transmission capacity, but developments in the UK are being closely monitored and quickly analyzed.

More specifically, the B117 variant includes, among other things, a deletion in the virus genome that has been associated with differences in molecular test (PCR) results. This is known as ‘peak abandonment’, otherwise ‘S-‘ and the analyzes consider ‘peak abandonment’ as a proxy for the new B117 variant. While the elimination of S- does not necessarily indicate the B117 variant, more than 97% of tests showing S- since mid-November have been attributed to the new variant (as it prevails over other variants of the virus circulating in the Kingdom United).

There is also a rapid increase in the frequency of the B117 variant in London and the South East of England, which increased to 80% in mid-December. When looking at the distribution in England, the estimated frequency varies by region: between 15% in Yorkshire and 85% in south-east England.

What does this mean;

While the variance remains low in many parts of England, the trajectory of its emergence in some areas (Oxford and Birmingham) shows that there are increases in its frequency in new areas. This means that it is likely to follow the same path in other areas, unless the authorities act immediately.

How are age groups affected?

The data suggest that today the standard strain, that is, the original, is still prevalent among those over 60 years of age (at least among those who took the test). As we know, these ages are more susceptible to developing severe COVID-19 disease.

The new variant is most common in the age groups 0-9 years and 10-19 years, according to data up to mid-December. Regardless of the relative projection of variation among children, the prevalence is higher among those 10-19 years, as shown by the analysis of all those who underwent diagnostic tests.

Apart from the increased transmissibility of the variant itself, there could be other reasons for this age distribution. For example:

• schools opened during the confinement, which probably favored the variation
• Children and adolescents who are trapped and carry the variant may have developed symptoms and were therefore requested a diagnostic test.

This does not necessarily mean an increased biological sensitivity in children and adolescents towards adults and should not be interpreted as such. Since these are not random samples from healthy people, but results based on more specific tests, they must be interpreted with care.

Why is all this important?

• We know that virus transmission that begins in younger age groups inevitably spreads to the elderly and leads to coronavirus and serious illness. We have seen this pattern in the past.
• If the infection is not reduced in children and adolescents, the new variant will likely quickly dominate in adults as well. This is likely to lead to an even faster spread of the infection in the elderly, where the infection is more likely to be more severe and put greater pressure on the UK healthcare system.
• The geographical and age distribution suggests that, although the UK is already in a critical situation, it is likely to deteriorate. In other words, we can see that the variance extends significantly outside of South East England.

Here I will add a short comment as many ask how the variant increases transmissibility. We do not yet know the exact mechanism. There are some studies that suggest that the levels of virus in the throat and nose are higher among people infected with the original type of virus. This suggests one of the ways that the spread can be facilitated.

The emergence and transmission rate of this variant simply shows that the battle with the virus is not over. “Mass vaccinations combined with protective measures will give us the greatest prevention we need to stop the spread of the virus.”