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The most likely scenario for a return to normalcy after the pandemic was presented by the influential American magazine “Atlantic”, based on the opinions of experts from the United States. As he points out, the light is already on the horizon, the improvement will be more or less continuous from now on despite the setbacks, ending in the return of life at normal rates, something that should definitely be expected next year in spring.
Despite the uncertainties (new coronavirus mutations, vaccine deliveries, etc.) and, in general, the difficulty of predicting the exact time of the end of a pandemic, there is already enough information to make solid estimates about a future calendar by season. . In general, according to the magazine’s analysis, which mainly concerns the US but could be extended to other countries, life this spring will not differ significantly from last year, that is, it will roll in uncertainty and restrictions. But summer can be wonderful and very close to what is considered normal.
Then, for the coming fall and winter, there are two versions: either a continuous and cautious improvement of the situation or a moderate setback, which will be followed next spring by an almost certain return to normal life before the pandemic.
In detail, daily life in the coming months until this summer will largely remain far from normal. It is considered unlikely that by late spring so many people will have been vaccinated to restore normalcy. In fact, some experts do not rule out that in spring the condition may temporarily worsen again, mainly due to the spread of more contagious mutations in the coronavirus.
The good news is that, even with these mutations, existing vaccines seriously reduce the risk of contracting Covid-19. According to Dr. Asis Ja, dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University, at the end of March you will probably feel comfortable going to a friend’s house for a drink indoors and without a mask, as long as you are both vaccinated.
Whatever spring is, summer will likely be a miracle and a revelation for many people. “Unless there is a really crazy mutation, I expect summer to look a lot like 2019,” said Andrew Neimer, a professor of public health at the University of California-Irvine. He does not rule out that life may be close to normal, already in May, although he predicts that the use of a mask in public places will continue to be necessary for quite some time.
Although other experts are less optimistic about May, there is almost a consensus among American scientists that sometime between June and September, a combination of advanced vaccines and warmer weather is likely to make many activities much safer, such as gatherings with family and friends, even indoors. , return to workplaces, increased use of public transport, catering, travel, schools, etc.
Gradually, people are expected to expand their circle of contacts and social activities. Especially if everyone has been vaccinated, they are expected to do so again in the summer, p. Eg large friendly family gatherings without a mask and at the same time going back to restaurants, even indoors, provided they are well ventilated and not crowded. On the other hand, however, many experts don’t expect the return of concerts and other massive indoor events in the summer.
In the colder months this coming fall and winter, the coronavirus may become more noticeable, but it will hardly be as dangerous as this winter. Some scientists are optimistic that next year, concerts and other indoor events will even be allowed in the winter. There will be isolated outbreaks of Covid-19, but mass vaccinations will dramatically reduce the chances that someone will be hospitalized or transmit the virus. The most important factor of uncertainty is a mutation that will go beyond existing vaccines, which will have to be renewed accordingly (something that will take a few months), as long as it is “X unknown” and to what extent the cases will increase among those who are not will have vaccinated. A sharp increase in cases may make new temporary restrictions (teleworking, masks everywhere, etc.) inevitable, so as not to lose control of the health system, but probably without a strict “lockdown”.
After the next winter, spring will come forever, literally and figuratively. The coronavirus will not be eradicated (this may never happen), but like the flu it will be a seasonal winter phenomenon, treatable with vaccines. Some people will continue to die from Covid-19, but there will be no more outbreaks and threats of uncontrollable situations. So in about a year, except for the unexpected (let’s not forget the so-called “black swans”), people will be able to do everything, or almost everything, that they did before the pandemic.
Source: ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ
