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There are two fears of Erdogan. The Turkish economy that goes from bad to worse and in order not to lose the elections of 2023 and to be in the seat he and his family, points out Thanos Veremis in the liberal. Catalysts, any victory for Biden in the American elections as the balances will change and the Turkish president will be “squeezed” and the gradual change of attitude of the Europeans who realize that Turkey is inaccessible to learning. “The European mix in December will have more whips than carrots”, estimates the emeritus professor of EKPA. Commenting on today’s elections in the occupied territories, he believes that Erdogan’s “gifts” to his chosen one, like Varosia, are not sure that they will bring the desired result. The old Turkish Cypriots, who support Akinci, do not want to be manipulated by the epics, which are in the hands of Erdogan, that is, Turkey.
Interview with George Fintikakis
– If I asked you for a forecast for the elections in the occupied territories, what would it be?
Two will pass, as everything shows, in the next round, Tatar and Akinci, who leads the polls. As is known, Tatar has the back of Erdogan, who is willing to do a lot of “garbage” to choose his chosen one. One of them is the history of Famagusta, to influence the outcome of the elections.
It is not certain that I will. There are two types of Turkish Cypriots. The elders who support Akinci and the settlers, with a completely different culture and mentality than the former, who are more in the hands of Erdogan, that is, Turkey. The elderly do not want to be manipulated by the settlers, they want their future in the European Union.
In this case, Greece made a big mistake. Instead of immediately proving that Erdogan’s action was a nefarious intervention within the Turkish Cypriots, a move that would move both the EU and the UN, he simply denounced him, saying the decision was a clear violation of the decisions of the Advice. UN security, etc.
– Do you think we will proceed to the next step, the settlement of Famagusta?
Not yet. Erdogan wants two things. On the one hand, to show that Turkey does not care about anyone and is too strong for third parties to impose their rules, on the other hand for its man to win. Whether it will colonize Famagusta or not is critical. Varosia has been a necropolis for decades. The Turks have ridiculed them, they have taken everything of value from them. However, they are symbolic in nature and could be part of a larger exchange agreement. The Turks, however, never give anything, they only receive.
– Does yesterday’s Security Council statement calling on Turkey to revoke the decision on Varosia carry diplomatic weight?
Of course yes. But we could have stepped up this action by expressing our interest in legitimacy and saying that Turkish Cypriots are a recognized minority in Cyprus, that Turkey abuses. And to show that the conqueror of Cyprus enters a Turkish Cypriot community recognized by the EU and does what he wants.
– Finally, what do you think is the solution to the Cyprus problem?
Everything will depend on the elections. Any victory for Akinci will be very positive. An Akinci victory means that Erdogan loses control of the Turkish Cypriots. All efforts on our part should favor the election of Akinci. Beyond that, make no mistake, the division has taken place since 1974. The question is who will be the interlocutor of the Greek Cypriot side from now on so that an agreement is possible in this unfavorable context. However, if Akinci wins, Erdogan will lose control of the Turkish Cypriots. When you force your opponent, he will not sit down and eat him alive. If he wins, the debate with the Greek Cypriot side will be based on a federal model based on the sharing of power and wealth.
– As Nicosia and Athens prepare to raise the question of “Turkey” again at the next EU Summit, one wonders whether it is possible under these circumstances to scale to a wider region and pave the way for the resumption of talks. about Cyprus?
Erdogan can be aggressive, but he has two serious problems. The state of the Turkish economy is going from bad to worse and that is why it is desperately looking for energy resources. Furthermore, he fears that he may lose the 2023 election and that he and his family are in the seat. Regarding the difficult situation of the Turkish economy, if Europe decides to impose sanctions on Ankara, the consequences could be enormous.
And Greece must help to understand this in Europe. That is why I repeat that we must highlight the Turkish intervention in a Turkish Cypriot autonomous community. Cyprus is a member state of the EU, Turkish Cypriots are a recognized community. Is it possible that a foreign country, which has even carried out a military intervention in Cyprus, constantly intervenes within the Turkish Cypriot community to influence the elections? Where did you hear that again? This should be Greece’s strategy.
– You mentioned the difficulty of the Turkish economy. To what extent can it become a determining factor in your overall attitude?
Turkey cannot withstand an economic war. If Biden wins the US election, US foreign policy will change. And one of these changes will be his attitude towards Turkey. The balances of the game will change. The “sultan” will be crushed. I have no doubt about it.
Biden’s stance will be to restore the role of NATO, to which Trump has stopped engaging. Therefore, it will demand that Turkey stop undermining NATO with its stance to serve Russia. The only reason Ankara and Moscow have found it is because Erdogan offers to destroy NATO. Now you have reached the Caucasus, the Moscow courtyard. And if he has not yet intervened, it is because he is not doing well with the Armenian president, Armen Sarkisian, and Putin wants to teach him a lesson.
– At the beginning of the week, the German Foreign Minister Ch. Maas is on a tour of the area. Is this the danger of a new impasse that mobilizes Berlin?
There are many things. The Germans are much more reluctant to crush the Turks because they are taking money from Turkey. On the other hand, Macron is the man currently playing the leading role in Europe. And he tries to take Germany with him and persuade them not to play as Germans but as Europeans. Perhaps that is why the German Foreign Minister is coming, since the aim is to reach a European consensus on the issue of “Turkey”.
– Do Europeans realize, a few weeks after the Summit, that the “carrot” tactic towards Turkey and the two-month deadline it was given will hardly work?
It’s possible. I think Europe is starting to realize that Turkey is impossible to teach. Therefore, you will need more whip than carrot. I consider the scenario of imposing sanctions in December very likely.
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