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The extremely tense situation within Turkey is reflected in Ankara’s reluctance to open a stable channel with Athens, which will go beyond informal discussions about the bilateral withdrawal of planned exercises amidst a crown. In the wake of Ankara’s unwillingness to accept substantial confidence-building measures (IOC), there has been tacit silence on the initial agreement by the two sides to resume investigative contacts.
Despite the “always”, as the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlσαt Çavuşo αναφέρειlu regularly says, the readiness for the resumption of investigative contacts, Ankara has made no goodwill move, despite, according to well-informed sources , Athens’ attempt to open them. channels, especially after the last political consultations at the level of general secretaries of the ministries of foreign affairs, in early January, in Ankara.
The proposal made by Turkey’s Minister of National Defense, Hulusi Akar, to his counterpart Nikos Panagiotopoulos for a mutual withdrawal from the two main aviation exercises in Greece and Turkey that were scheduled for the April-May period (“Storm 20″ and ” Blue “20 Homeland)), was discussed by Athens with extreme caution. This is because, meanwhile, the Turkish Air Force has continued its flyby tactics, its military base has maintained its intensity in Evros in various ways, and with the international transmission of signals on “violation of the Lausanne Treaty” by part of their warships. Greece, located in Samothrace, Lemnos, Lesbos and Psara, Turkey has tried to internationalize its views.
In addition, in Athens, some non-diplomatic saboteurs observed with surprise, without any reaction, such as Mr. Tsavousoglou’s unjustifiably aggressive tweet in the report of thanks by Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias on the assistance provided by the Ankara authorities to the authorities from Ankara. Djibouti Greek sailors. After this, the Greek side decided to keep the full development of “Storm ’20”, but not in a single phase, but in three consecutive ones.
At the same time, Athens is active at the NATO level. Major military sources say Turkey is pressing to improve NATO measures to strengthen its eastern region as it seeks to halt the operation of SNMG-2 in the Aegean with the aim of monitoring immigration and the resource. Turkey Flow cites zero immigration flows from Turkey to the Aegean, as an argument for the desirability of stopping the SNMG-2 operation. According to the same sources, it seems that Greece is benefiting from the developments, especially given the United States’ interventions within NATO for the simultaneous strengthening of both actions by the member states of the Alliance.
Libya
On another front, Ankara is trying to undermine the “Peace” naval operation with the active cooperation of Fagez al-Saraz. The main military sources point out that the development of naval forces as part of the EU “peace” operation. Its main mission is to implement Resolution 2292 (2016) of the UN Security Council, which deals with embargoes of weapons to and from Libya by air, satellite and maritime means. As they point out, imposing the air embargo is not part of the capabilities of the company, which is already being exploited by Turkey, which is now Saraz’s main air support route.
The tense situation in Turkey has increased the disposition of the Greek Armed Forces. In the photo, the “Degiannis” rocket in Poros, in an exercise that took place last week.
Concern about the tension in the Aegean Sea
In Athens, there are multiple readings of the position Ankara is likely to follow in the near future, none of which is particularly auspicious, mainly due to the extremely troublesome situation facing the Recep Tayyip Erdogan government on purely internal fronts, such as the pandemic and deterioration. financial problems that have led to a monetary crisis but also to increased unemployment.
It is estimated that Turkey will seek to override the reactions at home by uniting the Turkish people with the stimulation of national sentiment and at the same time exerting intense international pressure to help both the Turkish economy and the achievement of its strategic objectives in Syria. in Libya, the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey continues to have demands in the Aegean, which have now escaped the constant change in their national positions and have often moved to the level of open defiance.
Since the beginning of the year, there has been damage on almost all fronts maintained, with one addition, the failure at Evros, which has cost Ankara’s international image quite a bit. Among the experienced members of the Armed Forces (DE) there is now an analysis that the crisis that mostly unfolded in March on the Greek-Turkish border is due to the improved geostrategic value of the region as a whole, somewhat that Ankara had underestimated. previous years
According to the main military sources, this fact is confirmed both by the visit of the EU leaders. on March 3, 2020 with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and, a little later, in the presence of United States Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Palmer, with United States Ambassador Jeffrey Payat and Consul in Thessaloniki Gregory Flegger.
It is worth noting that the same sources believe that the March crisis in Evros has evolved, possibly with the support of countries with extensive experience in preparing and conducting hybrid operations. In any case, in Athens they believe that the next crisis will focus on the Eastern Mediterranean and are preparing accordingly, knowing that Ankara will take advantage of the chaos in Libya (as it seems that the stalemate in the war remains), to carry out investigations. in the areas of responsibility established in the Turkish-Bolivian memorandum.
The situation in Libya is exacerbated by the fact that major actors, such as the United States, which has almost no interest in the country, see Turkey’s resupply of al-Saraz forces as a logical response to the strengthening of Haftar on the part of Russia. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
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