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Hundreds of Armenians in exile with flags in hand gathered in front of the European Commission offices in Brussels the day after the start of hostilities. They protested against his moderate attitude towards Turkey and his aggressive policy in Nagorno-Karabakh. “We are asking for concrete steps from the EU,” said scientist politician Lucien Hairaetin, who lives in Belgium. But there is no possibility of that at this time. “One of the largest communities of Armenians in exile is in France, where they fled after the Armenian genocide of 1915.” The entire area. “All Armenians in Europe must raise their voices so that the world can recognize the real terrorists in the region.”
Clear words in the European Parliament
If it passed through the hands of the majority of the members of the European Parliament, the EU would have to act. “We call for an end to the fighting,” said Sylvie Guillaume of the Coalition for the Renewal of France. Reactions are similar across political groups and ethnic lines. “Erdogan wants to revive the Ottoman Empire,” said Dutch Christian Democrat Peter van Dalen. “No one can contain the Turkish president with words, but with harsh sanctions.” Bulgarian MEP Angel Jabarksi has accused Ankara of “imperial fantasies” and the export of Islamist fighters to the region. From time to time the argument appears in discussions that Turkey wants to end the Armenian genocide that started in 1915. “This is an aggressive war against Armenia, supported by Erdogan’s jihadists,” says Charlie Weimers of Sweden.
“The sanctions must be correct”
As head of European diplomacy, Josep Borel appeared stressed after a discussion about Nagorno-Karabakh. “The message is clear, I have expressed my concern 54 times about the situation and the call to action. The Minsk Group (Russia, France and the US), which has been mediating for years, is the right partner for the negotiations, the EU will do what it can at the diplomatic level. “The debate on sanctions against Turkey has been postponed to December, we have to keep this schedule.” In other words, what Borrell means is that his hands are tied.
Marc Pierini of the Carnegie Europe think tank believes that ordinary diplomacy has not helped in the Nagorno-Karabakh case. The former EU ambassador to Ankara has no illusions about President Erdogan’s motives. He says he has managed to surround Europe with latent conflicts, from Syria, Libya, Greece and Cyprus to Nagorno-Karabakh. “What he is interested in is disrupting and undermining the EU, mainly for internal political reasons. And this is where Erdogan’s interests coincide with those of Russian President Putin. “In choosing the moment for Nagorno-Karabakh, he is clever,” observes Pierini. “Due to the presidential elections, the United States is paralyzed and this will continue until the end of January. Russia has a defense pact with Armenia, but it does not include the enclave. “Maybe that’s why Moscow is behaving in a moderate way.” The diplomat claims that Azerbaijan is militarily superior in the region. “The country’s army is equipped with Turkish and Israeli drones, which are extremely effective.” The planes and tanks on the Armenian side are less useful because they are not favored by the conditions in the region. “
In fact, Pierini believes that the routine military exercise between Turkey and Azerbaijan a month ago was planned in light of the events. And with the sanctions against Turkey? “If they are to be taken, they must be correct,” says Marc Pierini. “The Turkish economy is vulnerable, especially the arms industry. The Turks depend on European technology, whether with helicopter parts from Spain or with German Siemens submarine engines.” In these areas, the EU could raise prices to respond to the political adventures of President Erdogan. ”
French mediation is a ray of hope
Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan Center for Regional Studies, sees a ray of hope in the immediate diplomatic intervention of the French president. “The French initiative recognizes that Russia has a legitimate interest in this conflict. In the common demand to end the fighting, something like a reward can be seen for Russia’s rare opportunity to cooperate with the West. President Macron is also there. trying to stop Turkey in North Africa, the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. In this way, it reacts directly to Erdogan’s broader strategy. “But the EU as a whole must find a solid response to Erdogan’s strategic ambitions. “said Giragosian,” because she will not be satisfied if Azerbaijan infiltrates Nagorno-Karabakh militarily. “
Giragosian describes the EU’s reactions as “slow and indifferent”. While the EU’s security threats have intensified in 2020, its political and diplomatic machinery cannot respond, now that the United States is also absent. “Despite many years of peace negotiations, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have been left alone, without partners, with little hope of serious negotiations,” concluded the Armenian analyst. A realistic analysis that does not expect much room for maneuver in Europe.
Source: DW: Barbara Wesel / Irini Anastassopoulou
