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August turned into a suspenseful month, almost an oxymoron for the traditionally predominantly clear rastoni period. The eruption of the number of new coronavirus cases, on August 1, to 100, then 200 and just 24 hours ago to 293, seven units just below the new “psychological limit” of 300 cases, has caused great concern. From August 1 to 27, a total of 5,207 infections were identified, of the total of 9,531 cases that Greece had until that moment since the outbreak of the pandemic. What will happen when schools start? Will the NSS withstand more pressure? How difficult will fall be?
The experts remain calm but vigilant, paying close attention to the indicators: the slightest variation matters. How did materials experts “translate” the increase in the number of new cases this week? “We observed a slight flattening of the curve, with stable cases between 200 and 300, which may reveal the effect of the measures taken in early August,” the professor of Infectious Diseases at the Faculty of Medicine told “K”. EKPA and member of the expert committee. for the coronavirus, Nikos Sypsas. “Of course this does not prejudge the continuation, because next week we will see (ss: In the number of cases) the picture of August 15, with the many movements and especially in tourist areas where the virus was present.”
And Athanasios Tsakris, Professor of Microbiology, Director of the Laboratory of Microbiology at the Faculty of Medicine, Vice Chancellor of EKPA, speaking with “K”, says that he didn’t wait until August to start worrying. “Since July we have seen an increase in cases. Today, on the contrary, we have a” plateau “. Mr. Tsakris thinks that it is possible that we will have an increase in the coming days (” August is the month of synchronicity “), But the number alone doesn’t reveal much. “The amount of testing that is done at the national level is also important. Today the percentage that comes out positive shows that the situation can be controlled. Of course, it is a critical phase, we need very systematic controls in the community, correct measures and above all correct implementation of the measures ”.
In recent days it has been written that, in the event that we reach 500 cases, the health system will be under pressure. Mr Sypsas, for his part, does not consider that there is an alarm number. “If there are 500 young people who had a party in Mykonos, we are not so worried,” he told “K”. “On the contrary, we would be especially concerned if we had a doubling of cases every day, that is, an exponential phase of the pandemic. That is not the case today.”
Intubated
A critical indicator is, of course, the number of intubated patients, which according to the 12th report of the COVID-19 observatory, in the period 20-26 August reached 31 (from 23.4 on average in the period 5-20 of August). “It just came to our knowledge then. However, if the numbers continue to increase, then things will be very difficult,” emphasizes in “K” the president of EINAP Matina Pagoni, noting that a total of 1,300 should be operational by the end of December. ICU beds.
“We have to prepare for a difficult winter. Let’s not forget that since October we also have the H1N1 flu virus, for which everyone should be vaccinated this year, but also a lot of other diseases that will have to be treated in hospitals. Everything this we have forgotten with COVID-19 “. As Ms. Pagoni says, it is a difficult situation in which everyone must show seriousness and responsibility. “That each implement the measures separately, so that the number goes down from three digits to two digits and then to one digit.”
“Recommendation of the working group”
For his part, Elias Mosialos, the professor of Health Policy at the London School of Economics and representative of Greece in international organizations on coronavirus issues, speaking with “K” affirms that at this stage medicine is not enough to deal with the pandemic. “We need an interdisciplinary approach to the problem, with the participation of the sciences of sociology, behavior, big data. The number of cases is not enough. We need quality characteristics, not only at the geographical level – for example, if the cases are located in one area or are dispersed in the country – but also at the level of family structure. Who do they live with? With their parents; With people with underlying diseases or the elderly? He has proposed the creation of a working group made up of people from the aforementioned specialties, which will work in parallel with the team of specialists in infectious diseases.
“The control of the pandemic is not medical today. It would be if we had medicines and vaccines. We have no cure. So the weapons we have are mainly behavioral. How will Greek citizens behave and what measures will the state take to facilitate the behavior? According to Mr. Mosialos, such measures are the increase in bus routes or the strengthening of teleworking. “We need a national understanding between the government, the opposition, the local government, the employers, the employees. After all, that’s the definition of public health. “
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