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Thessaloniki will continue to be at least until the end of the year the area most affected by the coronavirus in Greece, since the cases of December 31, New Year’s Eve, will continue to represent 25% of the total.
According to your team’s estimates Professor of the Department of Chemical Engineering of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Demosthenes Sarigiannis one out of every four new cases that will be registered on the last day of 2020 in our country will be located in Thessaloniki, 200 cases out of a total of 700 – 800 that day. Which means that for Thessaloniki to return to a relatively satisfactory and manageable health situation, we have plenty of time ahead of us.
Professor Sarigiannis’ estimates of the evolution of the pandemic until the end of the year, presented today by Voria.gr, are based on three assumptions. The schools will not open before January, the retail trade will operate gradually and with measures as of December 21, while the restaurant will remain closed with the exception of restaurants, which will operate exclusively with people seated and an occupancy significantly less than the that they normally have, somewhere. between 30% – 50%.
With these data the forecast is as follows:
• TO December 14th at the whole country will be recorded 1,250 cases and in December 31st will be recorded 700 – 800.
• In Athena to December 14th will be recorded 220 cases, to 21 of the month 190 and in 31 around 200. As Sarigiannis points out, at the end of the week the data for Athens may differ, since from the last two days there is a slowdown in the reduction of the number of cases, which means that something special has happened after November 17, if and in the following days there is a significant increase in travel restrictions.
• In Thessaloniki to December 14th the cases will be 300, a week later will go back to 250 and to end of the month at 190.
• In Larissa expected in December 14 25 cases, to 21 of month 20 Y the last day of the year 18.
• In Patras the cases will be 5 on 12/14, 3 on 12/21 and one on 12/31. Exactly the same image with Patras appears in Etoloakarnania – in and around Messolonghi – which today is a relatively busy area.
These estimates will be reviewed by hand in the event that the phasing out of the lockdown begins on December 14, a date that is clearly likely to finally be chosen by the government.
What will happen to the vaccines?
It is worth noting that, as Sarigianni’s team estimates, if vaccinations in Greece are completed in June, probably by the end of April, the problem of the pandemic, as we experience it today, will be overcome, although, as experts say. , it will be necessary for some time to continue observing some measurements.
The AUTh professor himself wonders, however, what is the most appropriate spatial arrangement for greater and faster effectiveness of vaccines, so that herd immunity reaches the country more quickly. According to Sarigiannis, his team is already studying the differences that could exist between the obvious choice of the horizontal geographic distribution of vaccines based on the population of each region and a more specific approach, depending on the epidemiological burden. The results of this study will be completed and communicated to the government in the next few days.
Since last spring the interdisciplinary team of Professor Demosthenes Sarigiannis, in the Department of Chemical Engineering of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, has created in collaboration with the Italian universities of Pavia and Pisa a series of algorithms, combined with dynamic models of population behavior, health risk corona spread. These data give predictions of what will happen a few weeks or a month or two later, which in the seven months that have passed have been almost completely confirmed.
Source: voria.gr
