Pandemic calendar: the crown’s Achilles heel that can save the economy



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The HuffPost Greece team is preparing to return to the office starting on Monday and, although we will be working in cyclical shifts, at the correct distances and with all the necessary hygienic security conditions established by law, the more I think about it, more snakes surround me.

The samples so far are encouraging, but the effects of lifting the restrictive measures are not visible in the first ten days or two weeks. The real image will begin to take shape from the day we say that, like thousands of others, the gradual return to our office will begin. The 17th of May. Then we will see if the virus has thrived in squares, parks, beaches and queues or if we should get used to living without Mr. Tsiodras.

Countries are “reopening” one after another, but early signs are terrifying

Even if we wash our hands, wear our masks, and keep our distance, going back is a risk. However, margins are shrinking and risk is increasingly unavoidable. We are one of the lucky ones who normally work from home and can delay our return until the end of the month, but most of the country’s workers cannot bear another delay. And the more the country opens up, the greater the risk of a return to the exponential increase in cases.

The Achilles heel

The whole situation is completely Catch-22 and where I was beginning to despair, I read an article signed in the New York Times by two prominent Israeli academics. With Title “10-4: How to take advantage of the weak point of mockery to restart the economy”, the two teachers argue that one way to overcome stagnation is the 10-4 system.

The critical point, they write, is the approximately three days between the time a person becomes infected and the time they start transmitting the virus to others. According to the teachers, this characteristic of the crown is also its weak point and we must take advantage of it to revive the economy while staying safe.

Employees can work in two-week cycles. For four days they will go to work normally and for the next ten days, while they can transmit the virus if infected, they will be quarantined in their homes. “, support teachers.

Models from Israel’s Weizmann Institute predict that this solution can reduce the rate of virus reproduction to less than one, the average number of people each carrier can infect. Properly covered, it will withstand a host of adverse conditions. 10-4 can control the spread of the virus, allowing sustainable economic activity.

The problem with this solution is the application of the ten-day quarantine and I would very much like to know that Messrs. Tsiodras and Hardalias read the article by the Israeli professors and discussed the issue with the committee of the Ministry of Health.

At HuffPost we will discuss it right away: the risk of a return is high and if the 10-4 system can reduce it to relatively safe levels, we may have to try.



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