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Stabilization trend at the very high levels of early November, when the Thessaloniki enters the gray zone of the most epidemiologically burdened areas of the country, with the application of strict restrictive measures, it appears among the latest measurements in the wastewater of the urban complex, in the research carried out by its interdisciplinary team AUTH, In collaboration with ΕΥΑΘ.
In the corresponding diagram, which shows the viral load measurements in the Thessaloniki wastewater since the beginning of the epidemiological outbreak, it is observed that in the last four samplings – of the November 25 to December 2– The downward trend has been stopped in the four previous sample measurements from November 16 to 23.
In the diagram, the sampling days, recorded in red, correspond to more than 500 cases – as announced on the respective days by EODY – the days recorded in orange in 100-400 cases and the days recorded in green in less than one hundred cases.
“Very easily, the trend can increase exponentially again”
“We are particularly concerned about the results of the latest measurements in wastewater, as they show that the improvement in the epidemiological picture has stopped at a dangerous point. Taking into account international experience, based on the wastewater rationalization measures that we do for Brussels, Amsterdam and Paris, we can say that the situation is very marginal for the city, since the trend in measurement can very easily The load viral will spin more and more and even exponentially. “And since the starting point this time is high, the situation can get out of control.” declared in ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ its rector AUTH and scientific head of the research project, prof. Nikos Papaioannou, explaining the criticality of the data.
“We are at a critical juncture where the reliability of the measurements is crucial. The computational rationalization applied by the AUTh team in the measurements, based on 24 qualitative and quantitative environmental characteristics of the wastewater, increases the precision of the wastewater by an order of magnitude. determination of viral load. This makes our measurements a reliable tool to diagnose the spread of the virus and a valuable aid in decision-making. At these critical times, the margin of error should be as small as possible. “, explained the professor of Chemistry and member of the interdisciplinary team, professor Theodoros Karapantsios.
“Why … Thessaloniki got stuck”
Your interdisciplinary team AUTH Using the data from his measurements for the big European capitals, he seeks documented answers to the question why the situation in Thessaloniki is not improving, as might be expected after the imposition of strict restrictive measures.
“The very high viral load is the main reason for the slow rates of decline since the measurements were taken.” The higher the viral load, the longer it takes for the measures to work. This is clear and it must also be borne in mind that the measures implemented since November were not, from the beginning, similar to those of last spring. It is also evident in the traffic in the streets, a greater relaxation of the citizens, compared to last April, which is explained by the fatigue that has occurred, but is by no means justified, at a time when that there is suffocating pressure in the hospitals of the city. and each one of us can realize how serious the situation is now, that surely now he knows of someone who got sick, someone who died from complications of the virus “, said the rector of the AUTh, giving an interpretation of the epidemiological picture of the city.
In addition, he established a few more parameters: “When it was decided to suspend most of the activities and all the relatives were locked in their homes, this generated new outbreaks, since there were too many asymptomatic carriers in the community and new infections were created in the same area. Furthermore, another problem that may not have been adequately addressed relates to areas of possible excessive transmission of the virus and mainly to buses and public markets. Perhaps more measures can be taken there, there are solutions that have been successfully implemented in other European cities, solutions that we could implement immediately, such as the temporary inclusion of tourist buses in the OASTH fleet for the safe movement of citizens, such as the largest extending stalls in popular markets, etc. “, stressed the rector.
“The measurements are correct but they are not fulfilled correctly”
“The assessment confirmed by the tests on the samples that we receive in the Hospital and Structures Laboratory through EODY, is that there is a stabilization of cases at high levels, there is no reduction that we expected and this may be due to non-strict compliance with the measurements”. , is the interpretation given for the epidemiological picture of Thessaloniki by the Director of the 1st Microbiology Laboratory of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and member of the Expert Committee of the Ministry of Health, Professor Anna Papa Konidari. “If we were all more consistent, if we followed the measures with more reverence the picture would be better”, said Mrs. Father in ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ.
When asked if this finding leads to discussions in the Expert Committee on the possible need for stricter measures, the professor replied: “The measures are correct, you just have to follow them correctly. More effort is required. If the measures did not work , the increase in cases would be exponential, the spread would be such that hospitals could not function. However, stability is not enough for us, what we want is a drop in the indicators, which means even more strict compliance with the measures ” .
In this context, Ms Papa explained that “with the Intensive Care Units full, the discussion on the lifting of restrictive measures in Thessaloniki is premature, the situation remains difficult and every day in the Committee all the data is discussed epidemiological “.
“We closed the door of the house to the coronavirus when it had already entered the rooms”
“The de-escalation of the epidemic in Thessaloniki is very slow because the so-called blockade was imposed quite late, when there was already a great spread of the virus in the city”, is the assessment of the professor of Pulmonology of the AUTh and Director of the Respiratory Clinic at the Papanikolaou Hospital, Giannis Kioumis.
“A popular view of the lockdown is that we actually lock our houses assuming that we keep the coronavirus out. If the lockdown is delayed, when we close the front door of the house it is already very likely that the coronavirus is inside the rooms, which it means that an epidemic cycle has begun within the family itself. This is reflected in the cases and of course in the wastewater “, said mr Kioumis in ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ.
“When the restrictive measures were implemented, the virus was already present in many homes, it had spread to an epidemic wave, where we saw in clinical practice that members of the same family were infected. So in the sewer, the viral load is expected to decrease, when it has exhausted its cycle within families ”, the professor explained.
He added, however, that “A second explanation, not an alternative, but added to the previous one, is that there are a large number of asymptomatic patients in the community, at a rate that we do not know.” as “There are international studies that indicate that the actual number of carriers may be 3 to 10 times higher than that of those diagnosed.” Thus “It is not possible to know this and that is why the sampling that is done for the diagnosis of coronavirus must be properly stratified, there must be a representative sample of all social groups, spatial areas, professional activities.”, why “If the sample is from those that go to hospitals and private laboratories for analysis, it is not representative.”
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