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Coronavirus – All newsThe predictions for the evolution of the pandemic in our country with the use of mathematical models are made by the Professor of Environmental Engineering at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and head of the HERACLES research team, Demosthenes Sarigiannis.
Notes that if retail and schools open on Monday, the third wave of the pandemic will lead to On February 18 the fullness of the ICUs throughout the country to 80%, while on February 28 the NSS will have collapsed. However, it agrees with the openness, but not with the design.
Sarigiannis states that in no case can we “tame” the pandemic only with the blockade, Unless it’s the famous “accordion” lock.
“Another follow an organized plan, closing on purpose, having set specific dates from the beginning for the closure of the country, and another closure as a way to react to an increase that occurred. It is another way of behaving. “If you talk to the players in the market, they will not disagree with a well designed locking accordion,” says Sarigiannis.
“If stores and schools open, an increase is expected, which on February 18 will lead to the 80% fullness of the UCI and on February 28 to the collapse of the NSS. So a very strict lockdown will be a very tempting solution, but that will get us nowhere. We need to change the way we move. “Doing the same thing over and over again is not the smart thing to do,” he said.
To open, but with active protection measures
Remember that although we are in a state of emergency, not all essentials have been used, technological and not, means to combat it. He recalled that the restaurant, for example, instead of being subsidized for the purchase of heaters, should be subsidized with air disinfection devices, which are very effective, since they significantly reduce the exposure of citizens to a large viral load.
“It just came to our attention then. But, open with active protection measures. This means, for example, increasing teleworking where it takes place. It is not possible for someone to be registered as a teleworker and at the same time have the role of ERGANI, giving back to the entire Cuenca. Still, frequent disinfections, equip stores with air disinfection devices, speed up vaccination and, above all, more specific antigen tests. “If your mathematical model shows that in the ‘tade’ area you will have a problem in 10 days, instead of doing a blockade as soon as it is confirmed, you must hurry and carry out massive tests to detect the cases, breaking the chain of dispersion” suggests the professor.
The future of tourism for 2021 is now being judged
Sarigiannis puts his problem on the table tourism. He believes that the future of the country’s “heavy industry” will be judged in the next two months.
“After April there will be a de-escalation and at the beginning of June we will have very low cases. The question is what we do in between. In our country, vacation packages are closed from March. If we want to seriously discuss the direction of tourism, we have to show in the coming weeks that Greece is a safe destination. “With specific measures, proper planning, and therefore the reduction of cases, there is hope for tourism,” he said.
The increase in schools is proportional to the increase in the community
Sarigiannis recalls that the decline in cases in November occurred just days after the schools closed. The teacher emphasizes that It is wrong to say that the virus does not spread in schools.
“Studies abroad show that the impact on the community is proportional to the degree of dispersion in schools. With a high degree of dispersion in the community, there is a high dispersion in schools. At the current stage, we could open them, but as it is mathematically predicted that dispersion in the community will increase, we must also wait for the launch in schools ”, he emphasizes when closing.
With information from grtimes.gr
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