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In the context of relaxation of measures and behaviors, science reminds us that rest is not allowed against an enemy as cunning and insidious as Covid-19. And not because we know enough about what to expect, but quite the contrary: because even experts are profoundly ignorant, even of the basic problems of pandemics.
The journalist Germán López from vox.com asked the “burning” questions. And he got no reassuring answers.
1. What is the actual number of people infected with Covid-19?
As of May 12, 4,303,440 coronavirus cases had been reported worldwide, according to worldometer.info. Of these, around 290,000 have died. However, scientists are convinced that the actual number of crown victims is much higher. It is generally reported that, even today, more than a century after the 1918 flu pandemic, the true death toll remains undetermined.
One of the main problems with registration accuracy is asymptomatic patients. That is, those who transmit the virus without knowing it, as long as they do not show any of the characteristic symptoms of the disease. That is why the use of a protective mask is of utmost importance.
2. Keeping distances comes in many forms. Which is the most effective?
Avoiding close contact will surely slow the spread of the epidemic. However, it is not clear how this is achieved in practice. That is, it is not out of the question if, p. the prohibition of large meetings, restrictions on air travel, telecommuting or anything else. The result is desirable, but the process is currently unknown.
Natalie Dean, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, notes that “the greatest risk is indoors, where many people gather for long periods of time.” Beyond that, there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of any other measure.
Ames Antalya, a senior executive at the Johns Hopkins Center for Public Health Research, says something very interesting: “If you put people in their homes for two or three years, how will people work to earn a living?” How will the necessary goods be produced for all of us? How will other health problems be treated? Then there is a balance. The solution cannot be to end human industrial culture. Because the production of the coronavirus vaccine depends on this industrial culture. “
3. Can children become crown bearers?
A clear and resounding “we have no idea” is the answer to that question, according to Bill Hanaz, an epidemiologist at Harvard University. Initially it was thought that children did not suffer from or transmit coronavirus. Over time, however, it has been shown that even babies can become infected with the virus. Of course, they don’t get sick as badly as adults, but they don’t have any kind of innate immunity.
Obviously, the behavior of the crown on a child’s body, how easily or hardly it is transmitted to young people, affects the state’s decisions about the educational system: the size of the classrooms, the total number of students, etc.
4. Why did some countries or cities avoid the uncontrolled outbreak of the epidemic?
In addition to the obvious, such as the timely adoption of strict restrictive measures, as happened in Greece, its faithful observance by citizens, etc., international scientists are deeply concerned as they study the evolution of the pandemic. In fact, they cannot explain why Tokyo, a terribly densely populated city, has a better image than Covid-19 than New York. And in fact, while the Japanese do 20 times less testing than the Americans?
The factors and variables that can affect the epidemiological picture for better or for worse are, in essence, innumerable. That is why experts cannot reach convincing conclusions.
5. How much do climatic conditions affect the development of pandemics?
Theoretically, heat, sun, and moisture in the atmosphere weaken the corona. But if this data was enough to stop him, why was there an explosive increase in casualties in places like Louisiana, USA. USA, Ecuador, Singapore, etc.?
Researchers have found that high temperatures, increased humidity, and ultraviolet radiation do not promote the spread of the coronavirus. The heat is due to the fact that, very schematically, it “melts” the exterior of the virus, humidity because the saliva particles of the patients weigh and fall to the ground instead of being exposed to the atmosphere, and UV rays because they are antiseptics for all modes. properties.
The studies so far are mainly based on the reaction of other crowns, in which humans have already developed antibodies. What will happen to Covid-19 when thousands of people congregate in the sea and on the beaches? No one can know.
6. Is it safe to reopen organized beaches, parks, etc.?
Maybe yes, maybe no. In general, it is accepted that in open spaces, with free air circulation, the spread of the virus is limited. However, there are serious problems with the protection rules. How close are you to the bathers? Clients of a beach bar? Should we wear masks even on the beach? The coexistence between strangers, acquaintances, the entire function of social contacts in crowded places, remains a health enigma.
7. Will our body develop permanent immunity to the coronavirus?
The most common scenario for infectious diseases is that those who have the disease are no longer at risk for the rest of their lives. But the coronary artery does not follow this rule, as patients who have relapsed and become ill again after the successful outcome of their treatment. So science is also in the dark in this area, unable to determine whether immunity of the treated patient lasts days, months, years, etc.
The confusion over relapses is certainly compounded by the potentially flawed execution of the original diagnosis. Because if someone considers himself cured while his cure is not complete, then there is no question of recurrence, but simply of continuing the disease. But if the person cannot develop strong, long-lasting antibodies, the pandemic will return. With the same or even greater fury.
8. Can there be a vaccine within the next 12-18 months?
Some scientists, such as Natalie Dean, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, are optimistic: With so much effort and so much effort from so many agencies around the world, the vaccine will not be available and will be administered at the next one. -a year and a half.
Others, however, point out that even if that happens, it will be unprecedented in the history of modern pharmacology. The processes of investigation, evolution, tests, etc. of a new drug are, by their nature, particularly long. And this has to do primarily with public safety, because before any medicine is available, let alone a vaccine, all side effects must have been ruled out, or at least known in advance. And let’s not forget that the vaccines for contagious diseases that have been found to date belong to a minority of antidotes. There are no vaccines for most infectious diseases, despite long-term research.
9. It may not be a vaccine yet, but will we have other coronavirus medications?
The answer to this question comes from HIV, the AIDS virus: No, no vaccine. But now we have too many drugs that have the worst effects and prevent the death of the patient. The same can happen with the Covid-19. If we still cannot exterminate him, we may be equipped with some weapons to fight him, causing him damage and forcing him to lose his offensive power.
Chloroquine is apparently not the right medicine for this. Remdesiviri can do a little better. In each case, they have taken advantage of it, despite the obstacles that we can hardly imagine. ”
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