Koronaios: Why cases are slowly declining: 14-day battle for the ICU to breathe



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With many negative news, but also some positive, November is completed with respect to the battle of our country with the coronavirus. The penultimate month of the year, which runs through its last 24 hours, brought the second closure to our lives, while it has proven to be the deadliest month – so far – for Greece since the start of the pandemic.

Specifically, until yesterday, that is, in 27 days, 1,476 deaths from coronavirus had been registered out of a total of 2,102 recorded by the country since the outbreak of the pandemic in the country. At the same time, in November, the coronavirus turned “red” after negative records were recorded in cases, as well as deaths and intubations.

On the other hand, of course, the reduction in cases is clear, as experts pointed out yesterday Friday during the information established on the deadly virus. Cases have reached 2,000 per day, but this reduction is not considered sufficient to allow us to enter into discussions to remove the blockade. That was the reason for the extension for at least a week, at a time when everything shows a new extension.

Furthermore, despite the reduction in cases, the pressure on the ANS remains suffocating and it is not a situation that is expected to improve anytime soon. According to scientists, even in the first half of December, the suffocating pressure on the healthcare system is expected to continue.

At the same time, another sad milestone was reached yesterday, with the total number of cases breaking the “barrier” of 100,000.

In any case, even if some of the restrictive measures are lifted, there are thoughts and concerns about how this will happen.

One of the reasons is the slow reduction in cases, despite the fact that we are entering the fourth week of the blockade.

Because cases are slowly declining

Explaining why the de-escalation of the virus is slow, the president of the Panhellenic Medical Association, Athanasios Exadaktylos, said that “the main culprit is that there is a very large spread of the virus and it takes more time for this to begin to reduce.” ».

“It seems that they have more traffic than in spring, if this is due to inspections or because they have few open activities compared to March, this must be seen very carefully, and if there is a need to adjust the measures to be taken, to bring the result desired, because it would be a shame to suffer more than necessary with these restrictive measures. However, we are definitely in a very dangerous moment at the moment, of a serious recidivism if we take hasty steps towards opening, ”Mr. Exadaktylos also underlined.

“The truth is that the numbers do not seem to trend so that on the 7th we can go to the inauguration with great comfort, this remains to be seen in the next few days because as the numbers rise suddenly, they can suddenly decline. But we should definitely see that the people in the intensive care unit decrease a lot, and that means that the deaths will also decrease, but the people in the intensive care unit should decrease a lot, as well as the number of patients. We should see a two-digit number on the intubated to relax the measurements a bit. “If we go back and see where we were a month ago in the double digit number of intubated was the number of October 25,” he concluded.

When can we talk about removing the blockage?

“The gradual elimination of the measures has not yet been discussed in our Committee and will be examined next week based on the new epidemiological data,” said Papaevangelou, during yesterday’s briefing, recalling that the pressure or decompression in the ICU will be the regulator of the Commission’s discussions and suggestions.

Along the same lines, the Deputy Minister of Civil Protection, Mr. Nikos Hardalias, described the discussion that is taking place these days about the lifting of the confinement and what will be applied during the holidays as premature.

On the contrary, he clarified that “this year Christmas will be different in Greece, as in all of Europe, as in every corner of this planet” and recalled that “for the next 10 days, the existing measures continue to be applied in their entirety. And that is where we must focus our attention, on its faithful implementation. “

Furthermore, according to Ms Papaevangelou, a hasty lifting of the measures would lead to an immediate and abrupt increase in cases and consequently hospitalizations and deaths. “This is due to the great epidemiological burden in our cities, so the sooner the social distancing in which we live ends, the faster and more intense we will see the resurgence of the epidemic. On the contrary, if the lifting of the measures occurs after dispersion in the community has been further reduced, any increase in cases will be delayed and done at a slower rate, ”said Ms. Papaevangelou. “Certainly some activities of society will be opened, but without forgetting that we live in the center of a pandemic,” he concluded.

The curve falls, the epidemiological burden does not

According to experts, the curve of new cases in the country is decreasing, but the epidemiological burden remains stable at a high level. It is estimated that there are more than 25,000 active cases in the country.

In the territory the average number of cases is 2,000 cases per day. In Attica cases are around 400 a day, while in Thessaloniki they are around 600.

However, in at least 18 areas of the country, despite the implementation of the closure, cases are increasing.

These are: Pella, Drama, Thessaloniki, Grevena, Florina, Pieria, Imathia, Serres, Larissa, Kilkis, Halkidiki, Magnesia, Xanthi, Karditsa, Evros, Kavala, Rodopi and Trikala.

These areas give many cases, regardless of the course of the epidemic deterioration curve in the country.

Stabilization of new patient admissions

Regarding new imports, there is some stabilization. Around 4,300 patients are currently being treated throughout Greece, more than 1/4 of them in Thessaloniki.

However, based on the number of new cases, a decrease in new hospital admissions is expected over the next week.

“Everyone knows the fullness of ICUs, especially in northern Greece, and we saw for the first time these days the air transport of patients,” said Ms Papaevangelou. In the territory, the ICU bed occupancy rate is currently 88%.

Yet the casualties continue to rise: an average of 85 deaths per day.

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