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The country has put itself in the suffocating circle of the coronavirus. The second wave of the pandemic is proving to be more radical than the first is the second wave of the pandemic, with the number of cases skyrocketing, hospitals are testing their resilience and deaths are increasing.
The forecasts for the next few days are dire as the second wave has not yet reached its peak. Everything indicates that we must be prepared for a “black” November, because according to experts in the coming weeks we will continue to see an increase in deaths because the effect of the confinement, which was imposed on Saturday, has not yet been seen.
A condition for the lifting of the quarantine is that the cases drop to about 400 and the number of intubated patients is drastically reduced. Otherwise, the extension of the quarantine will be a one-way street, while the thoughts of alternating mini-lockdowns, until March, to decompress the situation in hospitals, are gaining ground.
Currently, around 2,250 people are being treated in hospitals with coronavirus, from 265 in the ICU. Nearly 4,450 new coronavirus cases were reported over the weekend and 684 patients were admitted. The Thessaloniki and Attica hospitals are under the greatest burden, with 75% and 67% fill respectively.
On Sunday, EODY announced 1,914 new cases, while there were two negative registrations. The death toll rose to 35 in one day and the number of patients admitted by intubation reached 228.
As the government and scientists point out, if we all follow the measures, in three weeks we will begin to see results with a reduction in cases. Then we can move on to the next stage, with the gradual lifting of the measures. However, protective measures such as wearing a mask indoors and outdoors, distances, and more will be maintained.
When will the crash results appear?
“In the next four weeks we will continue to see an increase in deaths because the measures we took on Saturday have not yet been taken. Because the lockdown will be brief and we will not see the results during it, we will see them two weeks later.” we do a three-week lockdown, after five weeks we can be below 500 cases, “said Manolis Dermitzakis, professor of medicine at the University of Geneva, speaking on the” Society Hour MEGA “program.
He stressed that we do not know how long the shutdown will last. The professor noted that it would be appropriate “to see two weeks of case reductions, stabilize the reduction model and open around the fourth week.”
He added: “Of the three weeks that the closure was announced, the first two will not have serious reductions because we are still discussing the measures that were in force days ago. We will probably see some moderation. The result of the closure will be seen in the last three weeks. “
The professor pointed out that we should not confuse the number of cases with that of deaths or intubations, since “deaths and intubations come after the cases.”
The deaths we see now are from infections that occurred about a month ago. “This can increase while the cases decrease in a short period of time,” he said.
Scientists and the government will wait the next 15 days to make decisions about which activities could be opened and which ones will remain closed for several weeks.
If there is even a small escalation of cases and the pressure on the ICU is reduced, from the beginning of December it is not ruled out that the schools will reopen. And timidly, open the wholesale trade and the retail stores to anticipate the festive season where the turnover increases drastically.
It is considered difficult or unlikely to open bars and restaurants or the movement to other prefectures is not controlled at least until the holidays, as there is a fear of relaxation. In other words, giving the wrong message for the victory against the coronavirus and for the Greeks to run the holidays and New Years Eve in the shops.
Alternate mini lock?
The thoughts of a confinement with small doses of breathing, until March, are also on the table. The design of the alternate mini-enclosure seems to be gaining ground, since according to its supporters, valuable time is being saved for hospitals to regain their strength, while at the same time experts estimate that citizen compliance will be more dynamic, since there are light in the tunnel. of restrictions, as reported by Sunday Step.
“If they don’t work, of course, they will have to be expanded,” said Matina Pagoni, president of the Athens-Piraeus Hospital Physicians Association (EINAP), expressing her doubts about whether we can celebrate Easter normally.
We celebrate in moderation
“We are going to exceed 3,000 cases, after a couple of days we will have a straight line and then there will be a reduction. That is why we took the new measures because the system could not resist. 300 to 500 boxes a day are needed to eliminate the measures And then the measures will be phased out. “If they don’t do well, of course they’ll need an extension,” he characteristically said.
“Now we also have non-COVID cases in hospitals,” he explained, noting that the system is under pressure.
“We will see how things go, we will see how the measures work. The vaccine is expected to be launched from the new year when the third test phase ends.” If all goes well around June, all teams will be vaccinated, ” he stressed in statements to Sky.
“If the virus is more contagious, we will be late, we will have more cases and (the pandemic) will last longer,” he said. “This year we will have Christmas as a family.” We can celebrate in moderation, “Ms. Pagoni said.
“The question is what will happen next”
The professor of microbiology and member of the expert committee of the Ministry of Health, Alkiviadis, estimated that “cases of coronavirus will begin to decrease next week, although for 2-3 days we will still have cases and intubations.” Vatopoulos.
According to him, for the block to be lifted, “R (ss the transmissibility index) must fall well below unity. In the previous quarantine it had fallen to 0.5”.
“People will understand that we are fine when the cases start to drop and we have the opposite of what we recorded in the increase,” added Mr. Vatopoulos, noting that “as of June, generally around 20,000 tests are performed daily.”
When asked about the resistance of the NSS, Mr. Vatopoulos replied: “I think the health system will endure as there are still empty beds and the tension will last another 2-3 days.”
“The question is what will happen next.” If people will be convinced that the masks of distance and hygiene must continue and enter our culture, “said Mr. Vatopoulos, adding the phrase” hope dies in the end ” .
When asked about reports of a mutation in the virus, Vatopoulos said: “A special publication from Houston says it may be more contagious,” but in none of the three mutations being studied “nothing seems to have become more pathogenic. “.
The numbers are relentless
However, yesterday’s data on the course of the coronavirus shows that young and middle-aged people are not out of the picture.
Yesterday, the new cases of coronavirus in our country amounted to 1,914, of which 39 were detected after controls at the country’s entry gates. The total number of cases is 56,698, of which 54.2% are men.
4429 (7.8%) are considered related to trips from abroad and 15678 (27.7%) are related to an already known case.
228 of our fellow citizens are being treated by intubation. Their average age is 66. 57 (25.0%) are women and the rest are men. 88.2% of intubated patients have an underlying disease or are 70 years or older. 323 patients have been discharged from the ICU.
Finally, we have 35 more deaths registered and 784 deaths in total in the country. 316 (40.3%) women and the rest men. The average age of our dying fellow citizens was NA years and 96.4% had an underlying disease and / or 70 years or more.
The daily distribution of confirmed cases is as follows:
39 years the average age of the cases
Of the total of 56,698 cases, 4,429 (7.8%) are considered related to travel from abroad, 15,678 (27.7%) are related to an already known case and the rest are not related to travel or any other known case or they are still under investigation.
The average age of the cases is 39 years (range 0 to 103 years), while the average age of death is 79 years (range 25 to 103 years). The age distribution of (a) total cases, (b) cases that resulted in death, and (c) patients treated by intubation, is as follows: 
Geographic dispersion
The map shows the geographical distribution of total COVID-19 cases (since the beginning of the epidemic) by Regional Unit of the country, according to the declared address of permanent residence of the patient, or the address of temporary residence for tourists and other temporary residents. in Greece.
It includes both cases with a travel history (“imported”) and cases with possible national transmission. 
The evolution of the total cases and the total number of deaths of patients with COVID-19 is presented in the following diagram (on a logarithmic scale). 
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