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The “gray wolf” in the bubble rejoices – How the “sultan” builds on geopolitical instability – Will Europe stop him? Will the United States react? Because the next two months are considered critical.
Sages often use opinion “The wolf is happy on the broom” to describe situations in their daily life that, either due to indecision or lack of will to resolve them definitively, unfold in the most indeterminate way and become chaotic.
In geopolitics and in international relations, of course, such “sayings” are not reflected in the application, however, the scenario that unfolds in the last year in the Eastern Mediterranean basin could well be characterized as such a situation.
On one side, the European Union still dealing with “Irritating” stoicism Turkey’s ongoing and growing challenges, culminating in the recent kitsch party in Varosia, with the EU High Representative, Josep Borrell make another “significant” statement, for which, as can be seen from other similar statements in the past, no one sweats on the opposite shore.
But also the fear of the possible EU sanctions against Turkey at the next Summit he does not appear to be co-opting the now brazen Turkish president. The recipe is well known and the neighbors applied it faithfully in the previous Summit. Temporary reversal, supposedly innocent calls and invocations to diplomacy, and before the ink of the Synod’s decisions dries, again the same rhetoric of war and dangerous geopolitical maneuvers. Is it true that European leaders don’t realize or don’t want to realize that Turkey is playing them normally?
The consequences of the EU’s indecision they are multiple and are already perceived. The marginalization of the EU, for example, by a credible lever of pressure and foreign policy and its replacement by Turkey and Russia, turned out to be a perverse case in the case of Nagorno-Karabakh and, sadly, in the most tragic way for the Armenians of the region, that he left the north to the appetites of the Azeris and their Turkish allies.
On the other hand, for several months American tolerance for Turkish newspapersBy most characteristically sealing the scientific friendship that President Erdo .an gradually developed with outgoing President Trump, he fueled the Turkish provocation. The results of the US elections may not have been well received with the celebrations in Ankara; After all, President Erdogan was one of the last NATO leaders to rush to congratulate newly elected President Biden, but The transition period between the Trump and Biden administrations is likely to favor Turkish Leontarianism for a while longer.
The gaps in political power left by the United States in the broader Middle East, keeping its outgoing president’s promise of a gradual withdrawal and withdrawal of American forces The EU did not rush to use them correctly, to assume a decisive role in the management of emerging situations, but left countries with adventurous characteristics and aspirations to assume this role.
And what does the “wolf” do after all this? But of course he is happy as long as that geopolitical instability exists, which favors his beatings. Of course, and as with all prevailing theories in international relations, the period of instability and hesitation does not last indefinitely but there is always a point (balance) in which balances are restored. This is the point at which Turkish foreign policy seeks to be as close as possible to its neo-Ottoman aspirations. Will international actors allow it?
The answer is likely to upset the ruling class in Turkey. The EU is slowly seeing Turkey’s true image, and other European officials are joining the voices of the French President and the Austrian Chancellor, deeply angered by Erdogan’s “bastards”.
But also the imminent change of government in the US. marks the resumption of a more active American foreign policy, which will be based on the more aggressive promotion of American interests and will rush to fill the power vacuum left by President Trump, cutting the appetite for “greatness” in the region, Turkey.
In this climate and with the sand in the hourglass of opportunities running, Turkey is rushing to take advantage of the fragile geopolitical situation for as long as possible. The unfortunate feast of Varosia, as well as the extension – once again – of NAVTEX by ORUC REIS until November 24 are the swans of a conflictive policy that sooner or later will lead the Turkish state to the rule of legality and law. And if the diplomatic isolation and the fact that Turkey has now acquired its nickname widely in diplomatic circles “Spoiled child” it doesn’t bother her, the course of the suffocating turkish economy it will bother you a lot. Both the EU and the US have the “means” and the levers of pressure, if they wish, to impose on Turkey a policy change that respects the rule of law and basic principles of good neighborliness.
Faced with this quagmire of global political developments and with the ever-growing Turkish provocation, Our country reacts using its “soft” and “hard” power just as effectively. Through the active diplomacy that has been developed in recent times, the neighbor’s challenges of a bilateral problem have been reduced to Euro-Turks thus assuming its true dimensions, but at the same time constantly promoting current positions in all international forums such as the United Nations.
It is a fact that after Syria, Libya, Iraq and Nagorno-Karabakh, Erdogan has focused on the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean. Obviously, as long as the United States is effectively in anarchy and Europe continues to “caress” it, it is not ruled out that in the near future it will proceed to an even greater escalation of tension, which may include an even more aggressive and provocative action against our country.
Our Armed Forces, such as the main arm of “hard” power, have managed with their determined and dynamic attitude to be the unbreakable embankment in turkish searches on which the country’s high politics is based due to the subtle manipulations of the situation.
In any case, one thing is certain: the more our neighbors escalate their challenges, the more fatal our reaction will be. The available options vary so far and that’s a good thing. But if the margins are reduced, the options will be limited … And this will not be a good thing to happen! Let the “inhabitants of Jerusalem” know if they haven’t understood it yet.
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