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Given that conditions are considered particularly challenging, international analysts are struggling to make the correct reading of the developments, but also to assess what will be the next moves of the key players on the “Mediterranean chessboard”.
Bruno Tertrai, director of the Foundation for Strategic Studies of G.
closely monitoring the crisis in the southeastern Mediterranean, believes that in the event of a military conflict between Greece and Turkey, Paris will intervene energetically.
Mr. Tertrai’s interview with SKAI and Apostolos Maggeriadis in detail.
Question: Dr. Tertrai, after the latest events and the departure of the Turkish researcher Oruts Reyes in the port of Antalya, how do you interpret the Turkish reaction?
Was it the result of diplomatic pressure from Germany and the United States?
Answer: What is obvious is that the fact that Oruts Reyes returned to Antalya before the Summit will be interpreted as a sign of de-escalation.
I don’t know exactly what the intention was, but it will be interpreted as a de-escalation signal, even if the Turkish government, as I understand it, has made it clear that this particular ship can and can return.
Question: Given this, what is the probability that the European Council will impose sanctions on Turkey next week?
Answer: Unless something changes from today until the European Council meeting, it will be very difficult to reach a consensus among EU members on sanctions against Turkey. There may be a call for caution, some warnings against Turkey, but I doubt that there is an agreement on sanctions against Turkey at this stage.
Question: Regarding the Greek-French cooperation, last week we had a meeting between President Macron and Prime Minister Mitsotakis.
Is it just a gun deal or something else? And do you think that France would intervene in the event of a possible military confrontation between Greece and Turkey?
Answer: This is a very interesting question. What I can say is this:
France has apparently been interested in selling state-of-the-art weaponry to various EU members, including Greece, for some time and there have been discussions.
Even before this crisis. My second point is that I know that the French want to bear in mind that any major arms trade deal must involve some form of further strategic cooperation.
So selling weapons like Rafals or frigates is something that it carries, or is it something that the French would like to see as a closer strategic partnership.
On your second question, this is obviously a very important topic, but I’ll give you my premonition:
I don’t know exactly what Emmanuel Macron has in mind, but it would go something like this: if there were a clear military attack or something similar, against a European partner, or an ally like Greece, it would be impossible for a country like France. do not react militarily. It would simply be impossible.
Obviously we are talking about very delicate issues because not all EU member states would agree that there should be a military response, but I think that if it was an indisputable – always according to the French vision of International Law – violation of European borders, then it is obvious that the French will react militarily.
In what exact way, I don’t know exactly, but they couldn’t do otherwise.
Question: What is the background to the confrontation between Ankara and Paris?
We have witnessed very harsh statements between Macron and Erdogan. Is it Libya, is it the energy reserves in the southeast of the Mediterranean, is it the power game in Europe, is it all together?
Answer: Of course, Syria and Libya are areas where we have had and still have strong disagreements with Ankara.
Natural resources? No, natural resources are not the key issue for us.
I think the “key” to the matter has to do with international law, the law of the sea, European borders: the ability of the European Union to show that it is willing and able to defend its borders.
Especially since other countries are looking from their own point of view, for example China, but also Russia and others, what we are doing and our reactions.
Because in the 21st century, many of the challenges will be solved through the Law of the Sea.
So all of this is and will add a dimension that Paris often overlooks, which is very much on the minds of decision makers in France, which is the extension of the Turkish version of political Islam to political Islam, which is considered by many French are incompatible with the Republic and the way the French treat religion throughout the world.
This is not Islam, obviously, but the Turkish version of radical Islam or political Islam, or vice versa, which seems to be being aggressively promoted in Europe, including France by Turkey, this is what I think the President and the Prime Minister. Watch very, very carefully. This dimension certainly counts in the balance when looking at the France-Ankara controversy.
Source: skai.gr
