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The EU is going to launch limited and economically insignificant sanctions. to the detriment of Turkey, as estimated in its analysis by the geopolitical research company Grupo Eurasia, in view of its analysis with a view to the Summit from 10 to 11 December.
Eurasia Group also sees that this EU move will not stop Turkey’s investigations into the eastern Mediterranean, but will lay the groundwork for the next summit, scheduled for March, to impose increasingly stringent sanctions, combined with the government’s tougher stance. of Biden on Anchor.
According to the same analysis, in the next period, EU-Turkey relations will be governed by a new normality (“new normal”) with ups and downs in tensions in the Mediterranean, where existing conflicts will be intensified by possible discoveries of gas in the disputed areas. .
The scenario will be complemented by EU-US cooperation. As well as sanctions that will further isolate Turkey, prompting strong reactions in Ankara, according to the analysis.
The busy schedule “saves” Erdogan
The Eurasia Group estimates that the tight agenda of the Summit (Brexit, climate, negotiations on the community budget) will allow Erdogan to get lucky one last time, but he will not escape unscathed.
Ankara will avoid some harsh punishments, but will impose sanctions on employees of the Turkish public energy company TPAO, as a final warning.
The leaders will lay the groundwork for tougher sanctions, which are expected to begin with the summit on March 25-26, 2021.
The EU is losing patience
The hardest line within the EU is already demanding an arms embargo against Turkey, a ban on EU funding to the country and even the suspension of a customs union, to curb Erdogan’s military ambitions and cost the already fragile economy Turkish.
Although Greece, France and Cyprus will put these measures on the Summit table, there will not be broad support, Eurasia notes. Although there is widespread frustration with Turkey’s movements since October, most European leaders prefer dialogue, Eurasia reports.
“The pigeons”, “Germany, Italy and Spain will be the first to propose a slap and build a compromise around future punishment,” he added in the Eurasia analysis. If Erdogan does not back down after this warning, it will be difficult for Merkel and other leaders to give Turkey another “free” in March.
So, the EU could extend sanctions to banking, insurance, energy and transport to take specific and effective measures, which will mainly damage Erdogan’s energy ambitions.
Erdogan’s double response
Erdogan will not tacitly accept the sanctions, Eurasia believes. He will use this opportunity to earn points inland, and the immediate result will be additional Turkish research in the eastern Mediterranean. It will then poison efforts to resume talks on Cyprus.
But in 2021, Erdogan will have to weigh the costs of his policies in the eastern Mediterranean, the analysis says. Internally, it cannot abandon the “Blue Homeland” doctrine, but internationally, it can no longer isolate Turkey as the balance of power in Europe shifts and Joe Biden enters the White House. “Therefore, after an initial outburst, Erdogan is expected to realistically soften his stance, but not return to the West,” Eurasia said.
