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Greece, Cyprus, France and Italy participated in the great aviation exercise “Eunomia 2020” held in the southeast of the Mediterranean. Photo ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ / ΓΕΕΦ ΚΥΠΡΟΥ
Athens is preparing for a month of extremely sensitive balances in the Eastern Mediterranean, following the very clearly delimited timetable that seems to be created after the decisions of a framework of sanctions ahead of the EU Summit. at the end of September, but also the obvious intention of Donald Trump to avoid an escalation in the pre-election period. The tension of recent weeks has led even the normally cautious NATO to take unprecedented initiatives. Like the one announced by the secretary general on Friday night. from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Jens Stoltenberg, to the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to establish a mechanism to deal with and subsequently reduce the escalation of crises between member states. This is an unprecedented event in NATO history.
It is doubtful that the Turkish president considers that the diplomatic mobility of the last weeks can disrupt his plans in the Eastern Mediterranean, a possibility that Athens is taking very seriously. Erdogan seems to be following a tactic widely accepted in Turkish diplomatic circles, according to which only crises unlock developments for progress on issues related to Greek-Turkish relations, in light of Ankara’s interests, of course.
As the military mobilization of recent weeks shows, the activity of “Oruts Reyes” in the south of Kastellorizo is a reaction to the agreement between the SEZs of Greece and Egypt, but above all it is a way of keeping alive the ideology of the “Blue Homeland”. Following the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, the consolidation of a military presence in Libya and the expansion of bases in the Occupied Territories, the Turkish leadership seems to have considered that the Greek reaction margins were limited.
The escalation in recent days, expressed by ignorance, Tayyip Erdogan’s rhetoric of war and the extension of the investigations of “Oruts Reyes”, are the most evident reactions from Ankara. Last week, Ankara also expressed great concern over discussions in Athens over the extension of the coastal zone from 6 to 12 nautical miles and beyond the coasts of western Greece.
The shouts in the media, but especially the diplomatic rumors about the possibility of extending the coastal zone to Crete, express Ankara’s real concern, that is, to turn the large island into a kind of base for the deployment of military power that will threaten the plans of the Turks. In the area. In addition to the Greek military presence and the growing US military presence in Souda, the relocation of the air forces of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and France is increasingly frequent. In this form of cooperation with the United Arab Emirates and France, the director of GEETHA, Konstantinos Floros, has a very important role, who, in addition to the regular part that he supervises, has contributed significantly to the formulation of a strategy for Crete in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The French Rafal
After the UAE F-16s, the French Rafale is expected to be stationed in Crete for a longer period of time. Last week’s exercise and Air Force F-16 training with the French Rafale were also a test of interoperability between the two types of aircraft. The issue of Rafal’s supply (as noted by “K” last Sunday) is in an advanced stage, with its management at the highest level, between Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and French President Emanuel Macron. In recent weeks, one more has been added to Crete’s many strategic advantages.
The Kyriamadi Forward Naval Base in eastern Crete proved to be an important supply chain for the Navy that enabled important units to maintain and strengthen their autonomy in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is important that the most powerful units of the Hellenic Navy are sailing through Crete, but also Ankara’s annoyance at the operation of the F-16s that took off from Souda. Egypt plays an important role in the entire Crete strategy, as evidenced by the transport operation of the nine UAE aircraft, which departed from the Persian Gulf, moved to Alexandria and from there to the Greek island.
Based on these data, there are two possibilities for the next time period. The first, and most anticipated, is for Ankara to continue NAVTEX expansions in the area until September 1 for a reasonable period of time. In this case, the controlled intensity situation of the last days will continue. The most negative possibility is, given the passage of ninety days since TRAO’s license application based on the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, to issue NAVTEX for investigations in eastern Crete. So it becomes clear that the game is deteriorating rapidly. In any case, however, Athens and
Nicosia is concerned with another phenomenon, that of the reinforcements of the occupation forces in northern Cyprus, but also the rapid advance of plans for a naval base not only in the north but also in the east, Famagusta. It is no coincidence that, according to some information, the frigate “Kemal Reyes” carried out temporary repairs in a Turkish naval installation in Famagusta that allowed it to be photographed without the damage it suffered from the stern of “Lemnos” on 12 August.
The need to strengthen the fleet
All this naval mobilization -mainly- brings to the surface the issue of the main units of the Fleet. The Ministry of National Defense has received proposals from many parties in the last month, ranging from the construction of new units in Greece to the concession of older units for a “middle ground”, but also efforts to reheat boxes (wholesale France, USA, Germany, Spain and Great Britain). ). A priority, which has been approved by the Maximos Palace, which oversees the effort to promote some weapons programs, is the rapid improvement of the average life and efficiency of existing ships. According to well-informed sources, projects involving the national naval industry are emerging, while supplies such as the four MH-60R helicopters, which have already been approved, are advancing rapidly. In the context of this policy, it appears that the government wants a forward-thinking program that will overload the budget mainly in the years 2020 and 2021.
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