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Enikos.gr daily, after EODY’s announcements for the coronavirus, presents the quantitative analysis of epidemiological data, in collaboration with the team of Demosthenes Sarigiannis, director of the Environmental Engineering Laboratory of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and director of the Research Institute for the investigation. Human Health of the Center for Research and Interdisciplinary Innovation of AUTh.
The following is the analysis of Professor Demosthenes Sarigiannis and Dr. Spyrou Karakitsiou for the evolution of the pandemic in our country:
According to EODY data, the downward trend continued on Friday with 1,395 new cases, confirming the slow pace of de-escalation of the pandemic in the country with results in line with forecasts from the CORE IT platform. The number of tests performed (32,719) was one of the highest conducted, yielding a positive rate of 4.3% on Friday.
Friday registered one of the highest death rates (102) in the last 20 days, remaining at the expected highs, suggesting that until 3 weeks ago, the rate of disease transmission was high due to poor implementation of the blockade. in the first 15 days of its implementation and the continuation of the operation of primary schools and the generally increased social mobility of parents consistent with the accompaniment of young children to and from school in combination with the low implementation of telework, which further increases the probability of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by working adults. The high number of deaths combined with the observed decrease in confirmed cases compared to the previous week can be explained by the fact that the lockdown was applied more consistently after November 17-18, about 10 days after its announcement.
For critically ill patients (intubated in the ICU), the number increased slightly (583 from 571 on Thursday). The evolution curve of the number of patients requiring intubation seems to be slowly following the path shown by the CORE computer platform, as shown in Figure 1, while an estimate of the course of deaths is shown in Figure 2. In both cases appear. that we are at the beginning of a de-escalation as we had predicted. If the downward course of cases continues, it is quite safe to expect this decline to occur in terms of the number of patients who are intubated in the ICU and deaths from COVID-19.
Figure 1. Number of cases in critical condition (ICU) according to EODY data and forecasts from the CORE computer platform.
Figure 2. Number of deaths (7-day moving average) according to EODY data and forecasts from the CORE computing platform.
The course of the weekly average value of the cases is recorded as registered by EODY and its expected course, according to the current situation and the decision to extend the closure until January 7, as specified by the CORE computer platform for the Greek territory. in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Greece
On Friday, in the sub-areas with high health risk, the downward trends in the number of new cases were confirmed, however, a slight increase with respect to Thursday was observed in Thessaloniki with 357 cases (Figure 5) while Athens shows a decrease with 295 cases. As a result, the epidemiological curve is not decreasing substantially for several days, but it appears flat (Figure 4), indicating the incorrect application of the blockade by part of the population in specific areas of the Basin, such as West Attica.
As for Thessaly, Magnesia is again at levels (75 cases on Friday) that generate concern (Figure 6). The situation is slightly better in Larissa with 49 cases (Figure 7) in Karditsa (Figure 8), with 23 cases and in Trikala (Figure 24), with 14 cases.
In the areas of concern in central Greece, the changes were asymmetric, as recorded in Etoloakarnania with 22 cases in which the situation is described as a slight decrease (Figure 11). In Acaya, which shows a decreasing trend, with 12 cases (Figure 7), as well as in Arcadia, where although the low number of cases (4 cases) does not allow to draw safe conclusions, its course is not clear (Figure 12). Evia, with 8 cases, continues the constant course of de-escalation (Figure 13).
Concern continues due to the unstable course in northern regions of Greece such as Imathia with 18 cases on Friday (Figure 14), Pella with 31 cases (Figure 15), Kavala with 39 cases (Figure 20) and Xanthi with 45 cases (Figure 27) and more Serres with 80 cases (Figure 23). In addition, on Friday the results are presented in Kozani, which does not seem to have entered a de-escalation process (Figure 16), Florina (Figure 17), Drama (Figure 18), Kilkis (Figure 19) and Pieria (Figure 21). . In all these cities, the low de-escalation rate is a problem, which can be attributed to the fact that the measures are poorly implemented by some small population groups, but due to the small size of these areas, their effect is decisive in slowing down the decline.
In addition, on Friday the results and the projected course are presented in Lesbos (Figure 30), in which the unstable course inspires concern, in Corfu (Figure 31) in Heraklion (Figure 28) and in Chania (Figure 29), where the The evolution of the pandemic appears to have steadily decreased.
With regard to Attica, there is a total stagnation in the evolution of the curve of confirmed cases at the 7-day moving average. Given the size of the population of Attica and the existing limitations, we propose to examine in more detail the data by municipality and where there is a strong epidemiological burden (eg West Attica) to intensify compliance controls. He intends to do the same in Thessaloniki, although it appears to be declining overall. However, the extension of the lockdown until January 7 eliminates the possibility of an outbreak during the holidays.
It would be useful to know the number of tests carried out by municipality, to better capture the recorded image (combination of number of cases and positivity). For the moment, we recommend paying attention to the evolution of the indicators of the pandemic in Attica.
Figure 4. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Attica
Figure 5. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Thessaloniki
Figure 6. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Larissa
Figure 7. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Magnesia
Figure 8. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Karditsa
Figure 9. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Trikala
Figure 10. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Acaya
Figure 11. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Etoloakarnania
Figure 12. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Arcadia
Figure 13. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Evia
Figure 14. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Imathia
Figure 15. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Pella
Figure 16. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Kozani
Figure 17. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Florina
Figure 18. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Drama
Figure 19. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Kilkis
Figure 20. Course of daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Kavala
Figure 21. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Pieria
Figure 22. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Grevena
Figure 23. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Serres
Figure 24. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Kastoria
Figure 25. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Rodopi
Figure 26. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Evros
Figure 27. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Xanthi
Figure 28. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Heraklion
Figure 29. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Chania
Figure 30. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Lesbos
Figure 31. Evolution of the daily number of cases (7-day moving average) in Corfu
The general evolution of the cases, but also the onset of de-escalation observed in recent days in the number of critically ill patients (intubated in the ICU), after Friday’s results, is consistent with the simulations of the CORE model for the next month. However, despite the implementation of horizontal measures to stop the pandemic, its course varies from region to region, while there are areas where the situation does not show stable signs of decline, the scope of which will be reassessed daily. The previous comments tend to conclude that the management of health risk should be considered at the local level since in the country as a whole it seems that we have passed the peak of the specific epidemic wave of November.
Nationally, the weekly moving average of the positivity index continues its downward trend and is now at 6.1% (the daily value on Friday is 4.3%) while the weekly moving average of the real number of reproduction Rt (i.e. , the number of individuals that a vector can infect) is 0.86 (Rt values below unity indicate a clear reduction in the spread of the virus in the community). Detailed information on the number of tests performed by region / city would help us to have a clearer picture of the course in the individual regions. A more complete analysis of the impact that different scenarios of opening the economy and educational activity can have on the health risk of Covid-19 will be available later this week. However, the current data and its comparison with the projections of the CORE computing platform show that the opening of the economy and schools before January 7 will be premature in terms of managing health risks based on current trends in health indicators using the CORE computer platform. We study the possibilities that exist for the opening of retail trade with possible spatial differentiation depending on the dynamic evolution of the epidemiological burden in different regions of the country.
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