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Relentless, the coronavirus continues to cast a heavy shadow on Greece, which has been moving at a lockdown pace since Saturday.
The small decrease in cases yesterday, which is also related to the fact that due to the confinement less rapid tests are performed, does not lead to complacency, since the critical size is ICU admissions and deaths, which sadly increased.
The second wave of the pandemic is more radical than the first and there are fears of an increase in the number of cases, with the result that the vicious cycle of admissions and intubations continues at a dramatic rate, while the NSS is under a suffocating pressure.
Our experts are preparing “black” news, estimating that this week there will be a peak in the number of cases, perhaps more than 3,000, before the effect of the blockade appears and the situation is reversed. They point out that we will continue to have an increase in deaths, explaining that the ones we “see” now are from infections that occurred about a month ago.
A crucial question that worries both the government and the experts is whether the health system will be able to lift the burden of the pandemic. The second blockade, which has been described by scientists as an essential medical tool, was imposed to drastically stop the epidemiological wave and decompress the situation in hospitals.
In this context, the rolling lockdown plan, until March, seems to be gaining followers, and the experts clarify that in any case, the lifting of the measures cannot be expected before the cases fall by three digits.
The country yesterday set a grim record of 35 deaths in a 24-hour period and 228 intubated patients.
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Even if the quarantine is finally lifted on November 30, the question remains, how long the new period of peculiar “normalcy” will last.
The alternate mini-confinement plan is gaining traction, as emphasized, it provides valuable time for hospitals to regain their strength, while at the same time citizen compliance will be stronger, as there is light in the tunnel of restrictions.
“If they don’t work, of course, they will have to be expanded,” said Matina Pagoni, president of the Athens-Piraeus Hospital Physicians Association (EINAP), expressing her doubts about whether we can celebrate Easter normally.
Eleni Giamarellou, professor of Infectious Diseases Pathology at the University of Athens, also addressed the issue, noting that there are epidemiologists who suggest a kind of continuous, “continuous” quarantine. As he explained, it is preferable to have for example a 15-day quarantine and then alternate with intervals of lifting measurements. The goal would be “not to have many cases but not be too strict. This, he said, will be discussed based on the results.
Ms Giamarellou also spoke about nursing homes and the causes of the spread of the virus, while also talking about “super-spreaders”, asymptomatic people who can infect up to 100 other people.
He stressed that a mutation of the virus has been recorded, so the virus is transmitted more quickly and easily. This mutation was first described in June in Spain and began to spread from Switzerland to Hong Kong. Recently, in fact, an effort has been made in Greece, where we have an exponential increase in cases, to determine if we are also dealing with the mutated virus.
However, Manolis Dermitzakis, a professor of Genetics at the University of Geneva, appeared against the “accordion” logic regarding the blockade.
“This logic is a bad mentality and it is not practical because people cannot adapt,” he said, speaking on Topic 104.6, adding that for himself the blocking measure should have been taken 3-5 weeks ago to see now results. .
Nightmare predictions
Speaking on the “Society Hour MEGA” program, Mr. Dermitzakis noted that in the next four weeks we will continue to see an increase in deaths because the measures we took on Saturday have yet to be taken. Because the block will be brief and we will not see the results during it, we will see them two weeks later. “If we do a three-week lockdown, after five weeks we can have less than 500 cases,” said Manolis Dermitzakis, a professor of medicine at the University of Geneva, speaking on the show.
He stressed that we do not know how long the shutdown will last. The professor noted that it would be appropriate “to see two weeks of case reductions, stabilize the reduction model and open around the fourth week.”
He added: “Of the three weeks that the closure was announced, the first two will not have serious reductions because we are still discussing the measures that were in force days ago. We will probably see some moderation. The result of the closure will be seen in the last three weeks. “
The professor pointed out that we should not confuse the number of cases with that of deaths or intubations, since “deaths and intubations come after the cases.”
The deaths we see now are from infections that occurred about a month ago. “This can increase while the cases decrease in a short period of time,” he said.
More than 3000 cases
In the estimation that the Hospitals will be pressured in the coming days, said the pulmonologist and coordinating director of the VII Pulmonary Clinic of the Sotiria Hospital, Mina Gaga.
“Yesterday we had three admissions and one discharge,” he said, adding that “the numbers we see every day (in public) are not what we see in hospitals.” We are still increasing in hospitals. “
In this context, Ms. Gaga estimated, speaking to Sky, that we will have an increase in cases for another seven to ten days. “So I’m optimistic that (the number) will drop,” he said.
He clarified that to get out of the confinement, the number of cases must be “three small digits”.
Earlier, in statements to the same media, the president of EINAP said that “we will exceed 3,000 cases, after a couple of days we will have a straight line and then there will be a reduction. That is why we took the new measures because the system could not resist. 300 to 500 boxes a day are needed to eliminate measurements. And then the measures will be phased out. “If they don’t do well, of course they’ll need an extension,” he said characteristically.
“We now have non-COVID cases in hospitals,” Ms Pagoni said, noting that the system is under pressure.
“We will see how things go, we will see how the measures work. The vaccine is expected to be launched from the new year when the third test phase ends.” If all goes well around June, all teams will be vaccinated, ” stressed.
“If the virus is more contagious, we will be late, we will have more cases and (the pandemic) will last longer,” he said. “This year we will have Christmas as a family.” We can celebrate in moderation, “Ms. Pagoni said.
Tailor: the health system endures
Speaking on the program “Time for MEGA society”, the Deputy Minister of Health, Zoe Rapti, stressed that the measures of the second blockade came at the right time to decongest the health system, which is lasting.
“It is up to us to protect ourselves,” he said, noting that the NSS is constantly being strengthened with new ICU beds, but also with specialized personnel who are entering the fight against the pandemic. For his part, Andreas Xanthos, a SYRIZA deputy and former Minister of Health, pointed out that we are in a difficult situation.
“From the people of the NSS comes a cry of agony and there is accumulated fatigue. We don’t need beautification or risk devaluation. “
Mr. Xanthos pointed out that the NSS needs to be strengthened, while the pressure on the health system has increased the risk of “practicing medicine in public hospitals in terms of war.”
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